That's about right, with some room for variations on the theme.
I think it's quite conceivable that the UK MLB slug will shuffle further west than being modeled at present (and ECM hints at this this morning) allowing a more definitive influx from the N or NE first week Dec.

Also something that's showing up on GFS at +120 on is a development running down through Norway and into the Low Countries which may precipitate the process I described above.
What is not high on the agenda is a sinking scenario - yet.

Whilst true, dont underestimate the way the scandi trough might expand. we dont necessarily need a greeny ridge if the general retrogresses far enough.

Yes, it looks as a general pattern as if the PV is getting organised to the NW which i suspect might mean an unsettled start to December, esp to the north, once the HP is pushed south

The ECM is a bit more interesting today, with the same poorly organised cold incursion we saw yesterday. The key, I think, is the high that develops from the beaufort and bearing seas. We can see some high heights start to move into the central arctic, even as early as 192 (and note while SLP is notoriously unreliable at long ranges, stuff going on further up is more reliable), splitting the PV sending, one section towards the atlantic arctic, and the other over canada. A probable course for this high to go is the eventul merge with the greenland high, so I would possibly expect perhaps another attempt at a cold blast around the 300 hour mark, is perhaps slightly more likely than usual. Then again, the ECM is the only model today that really does start to split the PV, the GFS is having none of it. 

Upper heights are surely a symptom reather than a cause. Heights will build where the jet stream isn't.

I never know why there is so much pessismism about patterns "getting locked in". That's a myth as far as I'm concerned. The jet stream can and will shift in a matter of hours when it decides to.

Certainly worrying about a bit of mid-latitude blocking writing off winter when there's still over a week left until December seems a bit premature.

Can't grumble with what we are seeing at the minute hopefully some cooler day temps later on

Hi all,

Here's todays video update:

Becoming Milder Next Week:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Thinking mild air (and low cloud) will start to invade from the Atlantic.

Thanks Gavin. Might be worth taking a break from model watching for a week! I'm sure prospects will look better next week and some FI eye candy will be available.

Thanks Gavin.

Indeed.

If thats the case roll on the Atlantic.

Agree unless the MLB is actually further east. A drier continental feed is always preferable to me although some bemoan it as faux cold

The 12z GFS run is UK Mid E N & Central N Atlantic Returned SUB Tropical North Atlantic UK & West NW Europe Mild Temperate Calm High Pressure dominated pattern.

GFS goes the ECM way with that strong high developing over the arctic.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131121/12/264/npsh500.png

Looks like this is becoming a bit of a trend. A long way from a cold spell, but HP over the arctic is always a good sign. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013112112/gemnh-0-240.png?12

Signal not as strong on the GEM, but you can see those pale blues moving north out of canada. This is really one to keep an eye on, if an artic high does form and merge with the greenland high, its only a matter of time before cold air heads in our direction. 

And now hints of it on the ECM12z even as early as 168

look at those pale greens and blues coming out of the bearing sea and alaska. 

EDIT: why is no one excited by this? Look at the height anomolies

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112112/ECH101-72.GIF

Look at the two red areas, one south of greenland, one invading from the bearing sea. The ECM0z, and the most recent GFS had them meeting in the middle. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112112/ECH1-168.GIF?21-0

Wouldn't you just love the HP to shoot through to Greenland now

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112112/ECH1-192.GIF?21-0

Not so good on 192, the high over the arctic is much shallower now. Still those greens in the pacific though, just teasing. 

Where is everyone? There is some real northern blocking been shown on the charts today, abeilt tentative. Why is no one here during ECM hour? 

Better than a Euro slug which would take weeks to get out of. I suppose with high pressure in the atlantic and a scandi trough, we are in a position to return to cold if the upstream pattern and jet play ball

UKMO looks the most encouraging but they may not be a sustained pressure rise over greenland for a few more weeks if at all

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Agree it isn't in a bad position, it could be worse

What is everyone talking about. The ECM run today is the best in days. By 240, not only has the bearing high merged with the greenland high, but there is massive Warm air advection from the pacific into the arctic. Meanwhile the polar vortex is getting pushed further and further to the south and east. Cracking run, my only concern would be the high is slightly shallower than I would like, but that should not be a problem with all that WAA from the pacific. 

Looks like 

long term to me? Don't understand the pesimism tonight, just like I didn't understand the optimism a few days ago 

EDIT: I mean seriously, look at this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112112/ECH101-240.GIF?21-0

What more could you ask for in the long term. Frigging god chart. 

We've had our fingers burnt too many times with these bloody models!

It is an encouraging run, but GFS is nowhere near as good and it called it correctly with the recent phantom cold spell

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112112/ECH1-240.GIF?21-0

To me, the GFS is, if anything, better (12Z at least). The High is much less shallow on the GFS and more centrally placed, whereas on the ECM it takes a little longer to get into a position where northern blocking can begin.