About half the ecm postage stamps show a North or NW flow over the UK at T+276

the ones which were freely available tom (before someone in Reading realised and removed the working link) only went to 7. you clearly have a view out to the end of the run. is there a lot of sypntic spread on the cold solutions that show for london in two weeks time or are they mainly derivatives of the nw flow you mention above?

We do have access to the full run, I was really talking about general synoptic type rather than the detail so I would say derivatives.

GFS12z is making some progress, but it isn't particularly inspiring compared to recent attempts. Pressure over greenland is just too low to get anything done quickly. Despite this some much colder outbreaks are now being explictly shown in FI. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

still anyone's guess as we move into December

Good evening. Here is the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday November 24th 2013.

The General Situation. The UK has High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic with a slack Northerly flow over the UK bringing a mix of sunshine and cloud with frost and fog patches at night or cloudy, benign conditions with very little rain. Through the week the weather will become somewhat milder for a time as the High to the West flattens and moves gently South with a milder feed rounding the Northerly periphery of the High and down across Britain. By the end of the week a trough slips SE over the UK, most likely on Friday with a weakening band of rain moving down across all areas with colder and brighter weather following with wintry showers in the NW to start next weekend.

GFS then shows milder air quickly returning next weekend and the start of the new week as SW winds round a declining High pressure with a front moving SE once more early in the week with some further rainfall but very little in the South. Again this is followed by a return to colder and dry weather as an intense High pressure area comes down across the UK to be replaced by an Atlantic ridge opens the door to a Northerly flow  with snow showers especially in the North and East and frosts by night.

UKMO closes it's run with High pressure out to the WSW with milder air again rounding the High replacing the day or two of colder weather which will occur early next weekend.

GEM tonight shows High pressure declining SE with some very mild Southerly air moving up across Britain supported by Low pressure having formed to the SW. The weather would remain largely dry with just light drizzle and mist near Southern and Western coasts and hills.

NAVGEM shows High pressure next weekend relaxing South with milder air rounding the High across the North and later areas further South.

ECM follows a GEM route of High pressure declining away SE over Europe with a very mild Southerly flow sucked up over the UK with largely dry conditions before a complex frontal system moves erratically ESE across the UK by midweek or soon after.

The GFS Ensembles show that from the mid run period things diversify between members in a huge spread North and South of the UK. The weather slowly becomes more unsettled too with some rain likely for all in the second week.

The Jet Stream shows that the flow is maintained to the North of the UK for some time to come turning South down the North Sea later in the week. Then in Week 2 there is some indication that the Northern arm weakens and resets over the Atlantic towards the UK.

In Summary the weather remains in very static mode for the first week with quiet benign conditions and only patchy frost and overnight fog as cloud remains stubbornly persistent for many. In Week 2 things become rather more difficult to call as there is some sign of our High declining with more unsettled weather with some rain at times. despite a few options of a colder Northerly flow is shown from GFS right at the end of it's run there is little support for anything particularly wintry likely within the next two weeks as things stand currently.

Good summary Gibby - thanks....  One of your shortest which reflects the nature of the output currently.  No comments on the 12z ECM at all says it all - extremely mild and quiet air over UK and much of Europe over end of the period.... but as the saying goes "the darkest hour is before the dawn", and I wouldn't be especially surprised if we get something develop over the week ahead rather like the extended 12z GFS does....  but the weather does as the weather will.

Having said that, I'm personally quite happy with a benign period of early winter weather so I can get things done without the weather getting in the way.... as long as it doesn't stay like that til March!

Andrew

Can anyone shed some light. From the untrained eye two regular posters Quanto and the Gibster are reporting two different interpretation of charts. One suggests that some deep cold could return in december while the other seems set on the current status quo. I'm not getting down down on either poster as both are important for this thread. Incidentally I hope they both keep posting again and again as the thread does seem a bit quiet these days.

They're chalk and cheese....  In short, Gibby provides a balanced analysis of the charts as they stand, Quantum provides a more eccentric perspective focussing on prospects for cold.   The forum would be a poorer place without either of them....    

Andrew