Hi everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday November 25th 2013.
All models tonight show High pressure still in control of our weather as it centre currently over NW Britain slipping further South and flattening out to allow a milder flow of winds from the North Atlantic to move down across the UK midweek. Then late in the week a cold front crosses all areas from the NW with a spell of rain, weakening as it moves SE across the UK to be followed by colder and breezier weather for the weekend with some wintry showers possible in the North and East and some frosts for all.
GFS then shows things turning milder soon into the new week with Westerly winds bringing cloudier skies once more. Through the middle and end of the week conditions deteriorate from the North as High pressure to the South finally dissolves away South. Things turn colder with some wintry showers for a time with some sharp frosts then as a transient ridge crosses West to East. The run ends with cloud and rain extending NE across the UK with milder air returning East over the South and west at least.
UKMO shows a very uninspiring chart for weather watchers in general as the large High to the SW is positioned such that a rather cloudy NW flow brings benign conditions with temperatures recovering to average again by Sunday.
GEM shows a steady deterioration in conditions next week as Low pressure gradually gains a stranglehold on conditions over the UK, moving down from the North. The end of the run for next Thursday shows strong to gale force WNW winds and heavy and frequent showers with hail, thunder and sleet and snow over Northern hills.
NAVGEM shows a mild WSW flow over the UK early next week as High pressure maintains it's position over France bringing mild and moist conditions with a lot of cloud across the UK.
ECM tonight shows a dry start to next week with fine and bright weather in the South while the North clouds over with a trough moving SE across the British Isles bringing a little rain which in turn is followed by a dip into much more unsettled weather with rain and strong SW winds sweeping East across Britain followed by sunshine and squally showers, wintry on hills by the second half of next week.
The GFS Ensembles show a tale of two halves tonight with Week 1 generally unexciting with High pressure cloudy based weather with average temperatures while Week 2 shows a strong trend now for the weather to turn colder and unsettled with rain at times with snow over the hills as a period of cold zonality looks likely to develop.
The Jet Stream shows the flow to the North of the UK with a plunge South of the flow over Britain on the weekend before a return to where we are now. Then later in the run it looks like the flow will trend towards a NW to SE axis across the UK as the weather turns more unsettled and chillier.
In Summary the weather still shows only slow changes over the coming week or so as the Azores High pressure remains displaced further NE close to SW Britain delivering an extended spell of dry and rather cloudy weather with a few brighter interludes with patchy frost and fog if these breaks occur overnight. A brief colder interlude is likely at the weekend with a few wintry showers in the North and East before milder weather returns once more. However, next week sees a steady change to more unsettled and windy weather moving down from the North and NW and while some models tend to exaggerate the severity of such changes a trend is well set that by the middle and end of next week a pattern change is most likely to have occurred and whilst it may not be a change to raging cold and blizzards a more unsettled and volatile pattern will offer something other than Anticyclone Gloom to talk about.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset