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Gavin P
Monday, November 25, 2013 9:16:12 PM



Hi all,


Here's today's video update:


Thinking About January;


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Is it really that bad already Gav? 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gooner
Monday, November 25, 2013 9:29:49 PM


just seen Gavin's update for christmas - mild and unsettled


and this continues into Jan as well - looks very poor for coldies - the Atlantic looks very strong


But if its any consolation dont forget that Xmas 1986 was also mild and unsettled - and we all know what happened after 10th Jan 1987


Originally Posted by: sriram 


That isn't what the Met are thinking , be interesting to see who is right


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


picturesareme
Monday, November 25, 2013 10:08:47 PM


I think I am going to hand in the towel unless something more direct turns up soon. Originally I said that I expected a cold spell somewhere between the end of november and the 7th of december. In the last couple of days or so there has been little progress, and I worry the models may be pushing the interesting synoptics back until they dissapear.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

PMSL! As soon as the Synoptics *actually* start showing promise (as opposed to ramblings about Bearings), Quantum throws in the towel :-)

Originally Posted by: John p 


I haven't thrown in the towel yet, I just expected to see more promising synoptics sooner. My main concern is that the models are starting to delay things. Still, if the models do start to show a cold spell explicitly then I will be happy. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Quantum.. i know not model output related so to speak but regarding yesterday evening thingy about scandinavean snow.


As of 24th November Tromso had 55cm of laying snow.


This is the deepest for this early in the season since 24th November 1995!! The only season to even come close by the 24th was 2001 with 45cm


Between 1991-1994 nothing of note for 24th november.


Now in my eyes this gets intersting... 24th November 1990 saw 68cm laying snow..


There has been a none stop blizzard since yesterday so i reckon the 25th of november 2013 will be over 70cm


Didn't the  winter of 90/91 bring plenty of cold for us, likewise the wnters of 95/96 and 01/02?   Or am i just mixing things up in my head here.

Quantum
Monday, November 25, 2013 10:27:58 PM



I think I am going to hand in the towel unless something more direct turns up soon. Originally I said that I expected a cold spell somewhere between the end of november and the 7th of december. In the last couple of days or so there has been little progress, and I worry the models may be pushing the interesting synoptics back until they dissapear.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

PMSL! As soon as the Synoptics *actually* start showing promise (as opposed to ramblings about Bearings), Quantum throws in the towel :-)

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I haven't thrown in the towel yet, I just expected to see more promising synoptics sooner. My main concern is that the models are starting to delay things. Still, if the models do start to show a cold spell explicitly then I will be happy. 


Originally Posted by: John p 


Quantum.. i know not model output related so to speak but regarding yesterday evening thingy about scandinavean snow.


As of 24th November Tromso had 55cm of laying snow.


This is the deepest for this early in the season since 24th November 1995!! The only season to even come close by the 24th was 2001 with 45cm


Between 1991-1994 nothing of note for 24th november.


Now in my eyes this gets intersting... 24th November 1990 saw 68cm laying snow..


There has been a none stop blizzard since yesterday so i reckon the 25th of november 2013 will be over 70cm


Didn't the  winter of 90/91 bring plenty of cold for us, likewise the wnters of 95/96 and 01/02?   Or am i just mixing things up in my head here.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Interesting, I'm not doubting you. My previous comment was about high upper air temps to the NE of the UK. I thought that also covered scandanavia, but it turns out it doesn't. Anyway my high confidence about a cold spell was indeed due to that bearing high, and things do seem to be trying to move towards a cold spell finally! Still, even if there is a cold spell before the 7th; I can never take satisfaction if I am right, because it could just have easily have been down to luck. 


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131125/18/183/npsh500.png


The low heights over greenland are starting to be invaded by that arctic high now on the 18z. Meanwhile the ridge over the atlantic is ready to meet up with the greenland high, or the canadian high if greenland remains stubborn. 


 


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131125/18/228/npsh500.png



 


And I'm not worried about the subsequent collapse. The FI tended to revert to the more zonal pattern as usual, but the huge amounts of WAA in western canada should prevent the atlantic from toppiling any greenland block that does manage to form. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
Monday, November 25, 2013 10:46:10 PM

Quantum, your posts are great but please post links that work

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


picturesareme
Monday, November 25, 2013 10:46:36 PM



I think I am going to hand in the towel unless something more direct turns up soon. Originally I said that I expected a cold spell somewhere between the end of november and the 7th of december. In the last couple of days or so there has been little progress, and I worry the models may be pushing the interesting synoptics back until they dissapear.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

PMSL! As soon as the Synoptics *actually* start showing promise (as opposed to ramblings about Bearings), Quantum throws in the towel :-)

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I haven't thrown in the towel yet, I just expected to see more promising synoptics sooner. My main concern is that the models are starting to delay things. Still, if the models do start to show a cold spell explicitly then I will be happy.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Quantum.. i know not model output related so to speak but regarding yesterday evening thingy about scandinavean snow.
As of 24th November Tromso had 55cm oflaying snow.
This is the deepest for this early in the season since 24th November 1995!! The only season to evencomeclose by the 24th was 2001 with 45cm UserPostedImage
Between 1991-1994 nothing of note for 24th november.
Now in my eyes this gets intersting... 24thNovember 1990 saw 68cm laying snow..
There has been a none stop blizzard since yesterday so i reckon the 25th of november 2013 will be over 70cm UserPostedImage
Didn't the winter of 90/91 bring plenty of cold for us, likewise the wnters of 95/96 and 01/02? Or am i just mixing things up in my head here.

Originally Posted by: John p 


Interesting, I'm not doubting you. My previous comment was about high upper air temps to the NE of the UK. I thought that also covered scandanavia, but it turns out it doesn't. Anyway my high confidence about a cold spell was indeed due to that bearing high, and things do seem to be trying to move towards a cold spell finally! Still, even if there is a cold spell before the 7th; I can never take satisfaction if I am right, because it could just have easily have been down to luck.UserPostedImage
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131125/18/183/npsh500.png 
The low heights over greenland are starting to be invaded by that arctic high now on the 18z. Meanwhile the ridge over the atlantic is ready to meet up with the greenland high, or the canadian high if greenland remains stubborn.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131125/18/228/npsh500.png 
UserPostedImage

And I'm not worried about the subsequent collapse. The FI tended to revert to the more zonal pattern as usual, but the huge amounts of WAA in western canada should prevent the atlantic from toppiling any greenland block that does manage to form.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



I now you weren't 🙂 that was the other guy with the phoney info from Weatheronline or something similar.

I hope the cold does arrive.. I'm Gateshead area end of week for a week and would like to see a covering of snow 😉
picturesareme
Monday, November 25, 2013 10:47:37 PM

Quantum, your posts are great but please post links that work UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



😁
Karl Guille
Monday, November 25, 2013 10:50:13 PM
GFS 18z Op continues the trend towards a more potent northerly followed by the chance of a north-easterly of sorts. Will the ensembles continue to show 850hPA mean dipping to or below -5? 🙂
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
Monday, November 25, 2013 10:58:39 PM
Quantum
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:03:29 PM


Quantum, your posts are great but please post links that work


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I always view the ECM (except the 12Z which is too slow!) and the GFS on netweather, their charts are more asthetically pleasing than meteociel. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:06:57 PM



Quantum, your posts are great but please post links that work


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I always view the ECM (except the 12Z which is too slow!) and the GFS on netweather, their charts are more asthetically pleasing than meteociel. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


They aint if the link doesn't work , words don't much for me a picture is better

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:09:04 PM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112518/navgemnh-0-144.png?26-00


NAVGEM 18z up until 144


Upgrade from the 12z with noticble warm colours in alaska. The heights over greenland are also slightly less resistant, but this is a double edged sword. That section of PV over the baffin could cause alot of problems if it moves south towards canada, indeed it could potentially send a barrage of cyclones ready to destroy a tenously developing block. Luckily most of the models don't see this as an issue, with the whole PV basically being shunted east. 


 


EDIT: do all my links really not work? They always work when I try. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Hungry Tiger
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:10:43 PM


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112518/navgemnh-0-144.png?26-00


NAVGEM 18z up until 144


Upgrade from the 12z with noticble warm colours in alaska. The heights over greenland are also slightly less resistant, but this is a double edged sword. That section of PV over the baffin could cause alot of problems if it moves south towards canada, indeed it could potentially send a barrage of cyclones ready to destroy a tenously developing block. Luckily most of the models don't see this as an issue, with the whole PV basically being shunted east. 


 


EDIT: do all my links really not work? They always work when I try. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You must be using the format system different from most of us - Sorry your links don't work.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Quantum
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:11:45 PM



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112518/navgemnh-0-144.png?26-00


NAVGEM 18z up until 144


Upgrade from the 12z with noticble warm colours in alaska. The heights over greenland are also slightly less resistant, but this is a double edged sword. That section of PV over the baffin could cause alot of problems if it moves south towards canada, indeed it could potentially send a barrage of cyclones ready to destroy a tenously developing block. Luckily most of the models don't see this as an issue, with the whole PV basically being shunted east. 


 


EDIT: do all my links really not work? They always work when I try. 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


You must be using the format system different from most of us - Sorry your links don't work.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I know they arn't clickable, are you saying all of my links go directly to a 404 page or something 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Hungry Tiger
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:13:13 PM




http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112518/navgemnh-0-144.png?26-00


NAVGEM 18z up until 144


Upgrade from the 12z with noticble warm colours in alaska. The heights over greenland are also slightly less resistant, but this is a double edged sword. That section of PV over the baffin could cause alot of problems if it moves south towards canada, indeed it could potentially send a barrage of cyclones ready to destroy a tenously developing block. Luckily most of the models don't see this as an issue, with the whole PV basically being shunted east. 


 


EDIT: do all my links really not work? They always work when I try. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You must be using the format system different from most of us - Sorry your links don't work.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


I know they arn't clickable, are you saying all of my links go directly to a 404 page or something 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


If you can past them so they are clickable - It makes for much easier reading.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Quantum
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:14:45 PM





http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112518/navgemnh-0-144.png?26-00


NAVGEM 18z up until 144


Upgrade from the 12z with noticble warm colours in alaska. The heights over greenland are also slightly less resistant, but this is a double edged sword. That section of PV over the baffin could cause alot of problems if it moves south towards canada, indeed it could potentially send a barrage of cyclones ready to destroy a tenously developing block. Luckily most of the models don't see this as an issue, with the whole PV basically being shunted east. 


 


EDIT: do all my links really not work? They always work when I try. 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


You must be using the format system different from most of us - Sorry your links don't work.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I know they arn't clickable, are you saying all of my links go directly to a 404 page or something 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


If you can past them so they are clickable - It makes for much easier reading.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I really don't know why they arn't clickable tbh. I just copy the image location in full. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:22:55 PM


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112518/navgemnh-0-144.png?26-00


NAVGEM 18z up until 144


Upgrade from the 12z with noticble warm colours in alaska. The heights over greenland are also slightly less resistant, but this is a double edged sword. That section of PV over the baffin could cause alot of problems if it moves south towards canada, indeed it could potentially send a barrage of cyclones ready to destroy a tenously developing block. Luckily most of the models don't see this as an issue, with the whole PV basically being shunted east. 


 


EDIT: do all my links really not work? They always work when I try. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Nope , not working

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nouska
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:23:45 PM





http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112518/navgemnh-0-144.png?26-00


NAVGEM 18z up until 144


Upgrade from the 12z with noticble warm colours in alaska. The heights over greenland are also slightly less resistant, but this is a double edged sword. That section of PV over the baffin could cause alot of problems if it moves south towards canada, indeed it could potentially send a barrage of cyclones ready to destroy a tenously developing block. Luckily most of the models don't see this as an issue, with the whole PV basically being shunted east. 


 


EDIT: do all my links really not work? They always work when I try. 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


You must be using the format system different from most of us - Sorry your links don't work.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I know they arn't clickable, are you saying all of my links go directly to a 404 page or something 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


If you can past them so they are clickable - It makes for much easier reading.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Using Firefox, I cannot get my links clickable when quoting a previous post but it works fine using the quick reply function. Is there a reason why this should be?

Gooner
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:24:14 PM

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131125/18/216/h850t850eu.png


 


Q , this is from Netweather ,  bring up the chart you want to post r click and then choose properties , copy that and then post in here


 


Thats providing this link works.....it should do

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hungry Tiger
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:28:28 PM


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131125/18/216/h850t850eu.png


 


Q , this is from Netweather ,  bring up the chart you want to post r click and then choose properties , copy that and then post in here


 


Thats providing this link works.....it should do


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Quantum
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:39:28 PM

With all this looking at NH charts, I seem to have missed the brief cold snap on friday. Looks like there could be some wintry showers for the north. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
Monday, November 25, 2013 11:41:31 PM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-264.png?18


Control also keen on a cold flow


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-0-288.png?18


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
Tuesday, November 26, 2013 12:00:47 AM
GFS 18z ensembles on a par with the 12z! Can't post the damn things from my iPad! 😞
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Tuesday, November 26, 2013 12:05:53 AM
Here are the 18z GFS ens posted from my iPad [sn_wink]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
GIBBY
Tuesday, November 26, 2013 12:16:18 AM
A yucky 120hr fax.chart tonight for coldies.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0 
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


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