Good evening. Here is the slightly late report from me on how I see the 12 noon outputs from the big 5 models for this evening Sunday December 1st 2013.
All models show a quiet first half of the week as High pressure remains in control for the time being with slack and light winds and largely close to average temperatures. Through the middle of the week weak troughs move South over the UK with the later one bringing a substantial drop in temperature, especially over Northern and Eastern areas where snow showers will become a feature for a time with accumulations here and there. In the South and West though colder the weather will be fine and dry with sunny spells with frost developing overnight.
GFS then shows a change to milder conditions soon after the beginning of next week with milder SW winds bringing cloudy and mild conditions with rain at times over the remainder of the run with strong winds at times and the heaviest rain towards the North and West.
UKMO closes it's run with fine weather over all areas as High pressure is positioned over Southern Britain. The weather will be cold at the surface with some very sharp frost and fog patches, slow to clear in places. The far NW will become more cloudy and less cold later.
GEM shows High pressure slipping away towards Southern Europe through the following week with fresh SW winds developing for all with some rain at times especially in the North and West. It would become milder everywhere.
NAVGEM keeps cold and High pressure based weather early next week as High pressure slowly drifts East across the UK. Frost and fog at night would likely be problemmatical before a Southerly breeze picks up later.
ECM tonight shows High pressure sliding over towards Germany towards the middle of next week with milder weather across the North and west though with largely overcast skies. In the South and East a continental feed of air may assist in keeping thing colder, especially overnight if cloud breaks occur when frost and fog is possible. It may be though that it stays rather cloudy and grey.
The GFS Ensembles show a colder then milder spell before things return to fairly close to average. There are some colder options shown there, some with a Scandinavian High which could prove interesting in time if it evolves. Rainfall would be limited in the South until later in the run while the NW in particular sees more rainfall than elsewhere.
The Jet Stream shows the flow turning Se across the UK and North Sea later next week before another change occurs and for the first time tonight this season the flow is shown to blow well South of the UK in Week 2 as pressure possibly builds to the NE.
In Summary tonight the weather is set to turn colder later this week, albeit briefly. Some sleet or snow showers should be likely in the North and East with fewer showers in the West closest to High pressure moving in from the West. Thereafter the most popular solution looks to be for High pressure to be sliding away South or SE with milder SW winds developing but there is a lot of mileage over the coming days of this week for this pattern to change as it looks no means certain that this is how things will evolve.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset