Links work for me - click on the red link

As for the outlook in FI, a Scandi high is difficult to achieve particularly if the jet is strong.  We discussed this last winter and the fact that ideally you want some sort of block over Greenland to deflect the jetstream, to reduce pressure on any Scandi high - by getting the jet onto a more southerly track rather than attacking the block 'head on'.

GFS 06z throws up a Scandi high in FI and does it with two pulses of WAA, with the second one reinforcing the block and pulling it west.  Unfortunately there is a third surge of WAA on a SW-NE alignment that forces the jet NE as well, which is not helpful because eventually you get pressure on the block from the NW.

Is ECM right?  Who knows, but as Darren says, it has been a recurring them of late - and GFS offers up something not dissimilar.  If two models are seeing signals for an upper high over Scandi then there must be something in the way the atmosphere is likely to behave.

In passing, the November/December 2010 cold spell also started with a double surge of WAA to establish the block, although that built the block in the Iceland area rather than Scandi.

I suppose that is a sign of encouragment and proof we must look at the broader picture when it comes to illusive 'Beast'.

It'll still take me T minus 48 hours before I'm convinced of a proper easterly though!

Yes, it looks like a bit of an outlier doesn't it?

Certainly an interesting period of model watching, with the northerly at the end of the week and then this possible evolution next week.  Even if the northerly gets nudged eastwards it is at least introducing an Arctic airmass to our east, which will be helpful if we do get any sort of easterly flow setting up.

Not sure about 'overhyped' because, as you say, inland areas have always and will always miss out unless the air is very very unstable or you get a trough or Polar Low, which are very rare.

Are they? I think the Southern crew on here realise how poor a Northerly is , and that includes MBY

Perhaps some of us 'overhype' because we're interested in the general pattern.

On 5th Jan 2010 'Northerlies' delivered the heaviest snowfall in recent memory to parts of E Hampshire and W Sussex, and there are other examples. That's why I said '9 times out of 10'.

I agree

That northerly led to my brother being trapped in his car for 9 hrs... on his birthday. 

Northerlys can be hit and miss - so can easterlies.  Colder air is always going to be drier... it depends on what happens to the air before it reaches the uk that matters.  A good solid eastlery sometimes brings flurries all over the uk... but nothing more than a slight dusting - as the snow is so dry.  It drifts and you end up with an uneven blanket.

Occasionally that interacts with a LP over central europe and brings heavy snow to the south.

From a IMBY perspective from an easterly we will get a cold dry wind, with the odd bit of cloud and flurry, which - if it does snow, will drop in depth in a matter of hours as it dries out the ice.  If we get a North - North westerly with a possibly polar low - we may be lucky to get 5-10cm, but usually the north midlands and North wales fair better.

On balance though - easterlys provide prolonged cold, and are usually attributed to a block of some-sort, meaning longer term cold.  I cant remember a sustained northerly that lasted more than say 3-4 days. 

i assume the lomdon epsgram will be colder than glasgow. it looks to me like a slow burn scandi ridge, with most of nw europe under a fair size block. cant currently see a way that the cold uppers in se europe can be advected our way. the ecm op in fi is way too progressive although it must be said that fi uppers spread does allow for a push west of the cold towards us. i would be looking post mid month for any wintry action on this block other than frost and fog.

I'm not fussed if we get a Greenie block or Scandi - both can deliver the goods to this location where I'm situated near the backbone of the UK. Although for the UK as whole a Greenie delivers more widespread snowfalls in my experience.

Here is the discussion from NOAA issued this morning

The forecaster comments on the run to run lack of consistency and the increasingly amplified pattern across North America.

Perhaps worth noting that they prefer the ECM and ensemble mean over the GFS at the moment.

aahhh... its been a while.... it begins eh?

Not many places apart from scotland and hilly areas at the moment.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120212/gfs-1-96.png?12

tiny upgrade on the 12z

Not many seem to be talking about the strong winds much but they look stronger than the St Jude storm for some and a lot more widespread.

True - I noticed that also... however the "St Judes " storm collided with trees still in full leaf.  That is no longer the case.  So we can take stronger winds.

Thats not to say it wont cause issues... just not as severe.

Plus it'll be hitting the north instead of us southern softies I guess

I think too many of us are busy chasing the gold at the end of the rainbow, when quite frankly, there is nothing remotely cold on the horizon (save for a brief glancing blow this week).

There is a hell of a lot of hopecasting going on, scandi high here, Greeny high there, but the fact of the matter is this pattern is looking very much like a milder than average December is setting up, much as I dislike that thought.

Time to get a bit of realism into this thread and accept that there is NOTHING on the horizon suggesting anything particularly wintry in the next week or so - with the exception of the briefest of cold northerly incursions later this week.

check out the rogue storm around the 15th.  

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20131202/06/prmslCheshire.png

Very deep pressure if that came off

It's too early to tell IMO. While the charts may not look great for cold right now, there's no way of knowing for sure what the model runs will look like come the end of this week/ start of next week. How many times before have we been in a position of thinking that things looked poor for cold and yet, shortly afterwards, things changed. As an example, IIRC at the end of November 2009, the models didn't look at all wonderful for cold, yet a week or so later they were showing the mother of all Greenland Highs and northern blocking building and we all know what that led to.

There may be rather a lot of "hopecasting" going on, but there's no need to be downbeat either. It's only 2nd December.

There is, otherwise we wouldn't be discussing it.
I don't do hopecasting. There is a consistant attempt by ECM and GFS to build heights to the east and NE later next week. Very long range but it's there on the output, as discussed, and however remote the possibility we are free to chat about it.
Even the background behind your assertion that it's going to be a milder than average December is worth discussing, is it not?

Ouch

UKMO looks worse than GFS.

No quick way back to cold if the 144 chart verifies

Unless you want to catch the ferry from Hull etc to see the action in Denmark, stay where you are - there might be the odd snow shower down the east coast.

Yet another northerly plunge being shunted off to the east - the story of this winter by the look of things, as I've said before.