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Gavin P
Monday, December 2, 2013 4:45:04 PM


Ouch


UKMO looks worse than GFS.


No quick way back to cold if the 144 chart verifies


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Can't see much difference to be honest?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png


I suspect we will have a spell of mild southerly winds early next week though. Thats partly what inflate's the high pressure to the north-east later next week.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Matty H
Monday, December 2, 2013 4:47:10 PM
A sigh of relief for mildies as things currently stand. Nothing of note down here and a swift return to relatively milder weather looks favourite at this juncture.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Monday, December 2, 2013 4:50:48 PM
GFS in the Rhythm of the 00z and 12z Updates.

The Azores High returns by Friday right upto the following Monday (Dec 6th to Dec 9th).

But a Colder NW then North and NW flow brings band of heavy rain, and coupled after it - a cropping of Snow or hail rain and Sleet Showers on Dec. 5th, and Dec 6th on Friday we see Low Pressure swiftly head SE then away to the East for Norway and Scandy etc Finland.

The winds will be strongest in the East and North, as well as Central parts.

Then Friday much colder, and Frosty early and Late, this will continue on Saturday and May be Sunday as well.

Our High is shove East a little by 9th December, and less cold with cloudy skies and SSW winds will take charge.

A cold Arctic plunge is on the way, a large drop in temps briefly.

North and Northwest Atlantic Deep Low P, with more cold Low Pressure moves to Western Norwegian Sea To SW near Svalbard and NE of Iceland same NW Atlantic Low.

That happens in the part 2 of the forecast time above, the East NAtlantic UK W Europe get more milder from SW or SSW flow West of the Central NW Europe High!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
doctormog
Monday, December 2, 2013 4:52:50 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png 

Edit: LW isn't it normally rain that floats people's boats? 😝
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
Monday, December 2, 2013 4:59:53 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png 

Edit: LW isn't it normally rain that floats people's boats? Flapper



Yep Michael you might get a couple of snow showers out of this, but the wider scale impact has been moderated significantly as is often the case.

Despite some of the comments here, I am still intrigued by the attempt to raise heights to the Northeast next week.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chiltern Blizzard
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:02:37 PM


I think too many of us are busy chasing the gold at the end of the rainbow, when quite frankly, there is nothing remotely cold on the horizon (save for a brief glancing blow this week).


There is a hell of a lot of hopecasting going on, scandi high here, Greeny high there, but the fact of the matter is this pattern is looking very much like a milder than average December is setting up, much as I dislike that thought.


Time to get a bit of realism into this thread and accept that there is NOTHING on the horizon suggesting anything particularly wintry in the next week or so - with the exception of the briefest of cold northerly incursions later this week.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Given ECM's output this morning, the post seems a little pessimistic..... OK, nothing in the reliable timeframe, but definitely something brewing in the 7-10 day timeframe (albeit it's too early to get "excited") which isn't quite the "wintry precepitation possible on t+384 gfs perturbation 13" I associate with hopecasting.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Chiltern Blizzard
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:05:01 PM


Hi does any body know the most likely places to see snow with this cold snap coming thankyou

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Unless you want to catch the ferry from Hull etc to see the action in Denmark, stay where you are - there might be the odd snow shower down the east coast.


 


Yet another northerly plunge being shunted off to the east - the story of this winter by the look of things, as I've said before.


Originally Posted by: carla 


"Story of this winter..." - it's only 2nd December!!!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
kmoorman
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:05:58 PM


Given ECM's output this morning, the post seems a little pessimistic..... OK, nothing in the reliable timeframe, but definitely something brewing in the 7-10 day timeframe (albeit it's too early to get "excited") which isn't quite the "wintry precepitation possible on t+384 gfs perturbation 13" I associate with hopecasting.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


 


You've gotta love old Perturbation 13. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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moomin75
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:08:38 PM

Sorry, but ECM has not been infallible so far this Autumn/very early winter. I don't think I or anybody else would get too excited at a Scandi high at 216hrs and 240hrs.


The simple fact is, people are desperately looking for straws to clutch at in the models, but as it stands at the moment, there is very little joy for those wanting to see a cold and seasonal December.


Quite the opposite in fact. Apart from the briefest of brief northerlies this week, it really does look mild all the way out to AT LEAST the middle of December - beyond that - who knows....and as always, things can flip, but as I've said many times before, once a Euro high or even a mid-latitude high sets up, they can prove very stubborn beasts to shift.


Average to above average temperatures this month is the sensible call at the moment - and as Matty H says - those who prefer that type of weather are breathing a sigh of relief that this week's "northerly blast" is more of a fart.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:11:11 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html 

By the UKMO Standards, the Dry High Pressure looks to give Way to West SW and Rain bearing winds, Atlantic fresh air, Normal rain bands, above Average then a cooler Outlook could follow.

This looks very good, as on 7-8 Dec. we will see some dry Sunny spells and frost at night: the Outlook is fairly interesting and I do not mind it.

UKMO t144 is better than GFS at 12z.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
llamedos
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Monday, December 2, 2013 5:12:54 PM
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Gandalf The White
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:13:14 PM



I think too many of us are busy chasing the gold at the end of the rainbow, when quite frankly, there is nothing remotely cold on the horizon (save for a brief glancing blow this week).


There is a hell of a lot of hopecasting going on, scandi high here, Greeny high there, but the fact of the matter is this pattern is looking very much like a milder than average December is setting up, much as I dislike that thought.


Time to get a bit of realism into this thread and accept that there is NOTHING on the horizon suggesting anything particularly wintry in the next week or so - with the exception of the briefest of cold northerly incursions later this week.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


There is, otherwise we wouldn't be discussing it.
I don't do hopecasting. There is a consistant attempt by ECM and GFS to build heights to the east and NE later next week. Very long range but it's there on the output, as discussed, and however remote the possibility we are free to chat about it.
Even the background behind your assertion that it's going to be a milder than average December is worth discussing, is it not?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


GEM follows the trend and builds a Scandi high by Day 10


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013120212/gemnh-0-240.png?12 


There's the same double WAA that was on the 00z ECM run as well, with one surge N and the NE over the British Isles to Scandi and another NW from Russia.  The eastern one was more significant on the ECM run.  Another interesting feature is that GEM has a major LP system turning NNW in mid-Atlantic, repelled by the block.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:14:59 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png 

Edit: LW isn't it normally rain that floats people's boats? Flapper


Amazon are usually snowed under at this time of year, I think?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


jan1987blizzard
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:16:17 PM

GEM T240 has shades of 87 / 91 about it, an absolute belter!!


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2663/gemnh-0-240_ish8.png

squish
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:16:35 PM
12z GEM is similar to the 00z ECM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013120212/gemnh-0-240.png?12 

But still mild SW'lies look like taking over for the first part of next week...
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
doctormog
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:17:32 PM
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png 

Edit: LW isn't it normally rain that floats people's boats? Flapper



Yep Michael you might get a couple of snow showers out of this, but the wider scale impact has been moderated significantly as is often the case.

Despite some of the comments here, I am still intrigued by the attempt to raise heights to the Northeast next week.



A couple to warrant a severe weather warning three days in advance that is. 😝

You're right it has been shunted east but it will be a short sharp and quite potent shot here IMO (unless it gets shunted even further east). t850/ still get into the negative teens for a time with thicknesses just 511dam at one point . Not as severe as a couple of days ago but nonetheless quite noteworthy for the very start of winter IIMO.

Further down the line it would take a brave man (or a Beastly Moomin?) to sing "Jingle bells, jingle bells, zonal all the way" 😁

LOL @ GTW you're correct though I'm hoping for White Friday to follow last week's Black one!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:17:46 PM


Sorry, but ECM has not been infallible so far this Autumn/very early winter. I don't think I or anybody else would get too excited at a Scandi high at 216hrs and 240hrs.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


You're really missing the point on this Moomin. There have been so many signs from so many models of a pressure rise to the NE - and it's still represented by a good number of ECM ensemble members, even if GEFS has gone cold on the idea of late. The signal is a very strong one. Does that mean it'll happen? Of course not, but it's worth taking note of nonetheless.


It's a far cry from charts showing endless zonality with just the odd one or two bringing a chilly feed.

Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:27:07 PM
I think Moomin is doing a bit of reverse psychology-casting….
Russwirral
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:29:38 PM



Sorry, but ECM has not been infallible so far this Autumn/very early winter. I don't think I or anybody else would get too excited at a Scandi high at 216hrs and 240hrs.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


You're really missing the point on this Moomin. There have been so many signs from so many models of a pressure rise to the NE - and it's still represented by a good number of ECM ensemble members, even if GEFS has gone cold on the idea of late. The signal is a very strong one. Does that mean it'll happen? Of course not, but it's worth taking note of nonetheless.


It's a far cry from charts showing endless zonality with just the odd one or two bringing a chilly feed.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


True, but it just goes to show that if the Pressure rise isnt in exactly the right position, and if whats happening to the south of the HP isnt spot on, then the HP tends to drift into central europe - giving what would have been excellent weather for the summer - but mild and dry with over night frosts in places for us in the winter.  This has been the most common scenario popping up in the charts over the past few days, so im assuming thats what the models have settled on.... what happens after that and if something could nudge the HP further north - is what should be up for debate now. 


 


 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
David M Porter
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:31:28 PM


Sorry, but ECM has not been infallible so far this Autumn/very early winter. I don't think I or anybody else would get too excited at a Scandi high at 216hrs and 240hrs.


The simple fact is, people are desperately looking for straws to clutch at in the models, but as it stands at the moment, there is very little joy for those wanting to see a cold and seasonal December.


Quite the opposite in fact. Apart from the briefest of brief northerlies this week, it really does look mild all the way out to AT LEAST the middle of December - beyond that - who knows....and as always, things can flip, but as I've said many times before, once a Euro high or even a mid-latitude high sets up, they can prove very stubborn beasts to shift.


Average to above average temperatures this month is the sensible call at the moment - and as Matty H says - those who prefer that type of weather are breathing a sigh of relief that this week's "northerly blast" is more of a fart.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


You seem to be puitting a lot of faith in your view that this month won't be that cold, Moomin. To be honest, even if I were a betting man (which I'm not) I wouldn't be putting much if any money on cold, mild or average temperatures ruling the roost, simply because I have no idea and it's really too early at this moment IMO for anyone to know how this month as a whole will turn out. Even mid-December is in far FI range at the moment.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
nsrobins
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:51:16 PM


GEM T240 has shades of 87 / 91 about it, an absolute belter!!


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2663/gemnh-0-240_ish8.png


Originally Posted by: jan1987blizzard 


An exageration IMO, but at least with GEM on to the same idea as ECM my confidence goes up a notch

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
jan1987blizzard
Monday, December 2, 2013 5:55:07 PM



GEM T240 has shades of 87 / 91 about it, an absolute belter!!


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2663/gemnh-0-240_ish8.png


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


An exageration IMO, but at least with GEM on to the same idea as ECM my confidence goes up a notch


Originally Posted by: jan1987blizzard 


 


Of course it would need trough disruption out west and another undercut but look at the heights, with a relatively warm sea, light the blue touch paper and stand well back IMO. the hard part of course is getting to that position!!!

doctormog
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:14:35 PM
Thursday afternoon is looking like a particularly interesting period up here. The GFS scenario has got support from the ECM 12z op run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:15:38 PM



I think too many of us are busy chasing the gold at the end of the rainbow, when quite frankly, there is nothing remotely cold on the horizon (save for a brief glancing blow this week).


There is a hell of a lot of hopecasting going on, scandi high here, Greeny high there, but the fact of the matter is this pattern is looking very much like a milder than average December is setting up, much as I dislike that thought.


Time to get a bit of realism into this thread and accept that there is NOTHING on the horizon suggesting anything particularly wintry in the next week or so - with the exception of the briefest of cold northerly incursions later this week.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


There is, otherwise we wouldn't be discussing it.
I don't do hopecasting. There is a consistant attempt by ECM and GFS to build heights to the east and NE later next week. Very long range but it's there on the output, as discussed, and however remote the possibility we are free to chat about it.
Even the background behind your assertion that it's going to be a milder than average December is worth discussing, is it not?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Kieran is just hoping nothing cold will happen until his return


I agree Neil if a block to the East is being shown it is worth a discussion regardless of what hour it is being shown  at , trends etc etc

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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