Model Output Discussion 02/12/13 >>>>>· Page 10

theweatheroutlook

White Meadows
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:16:33 PM

Looks like the easterly was a non -starter. Have all models backed away from it tonight or should I not bother checking in for a few days?

Edited by user Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:17:51 PM | Reason: Not specified

Gavin P
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:19:21 PM

#227

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png Having said that these interpretation ps should not really come as a surprise as people seem to see orange (at either 500hPa or 850hPa) and think mild. It can be the case but is not always so in winter, especially in a continental or very slack air flow.

I keep banging on about this in my video's (mild upper air temperatures don't always mean mild surface temperatures under a winter anticyclone) but it seems to be a losing battle.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Hippydave
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:20:36 PM

#228

Certainly a pretty uninspiring ECM op run - be interesting to see where it sits within the ens.

Be odd if it was dropped altogether given the number of members keen on scandi blocking although not an impossible turnaround

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

Polar Low
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:20:58 PM

#229

About the best on offer I guess, hope you mildies not expecting IF to tweet again so soon

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

Rob K
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:23:32 PM

#230

Looks like the easterly was a non -starter. Have all models backed away from it tonight or should I not bother checking in for a few days?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

I'll be waiting for the ECM ensembles before writing it off. Supposedly the long-range models are mostly showing pressure rising to the NE (or were this morning).

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

eastcoaster
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:30:36 PM

#231

I keep banging on about this in my video's (mild upper air temperatures don't always mean mild surface temperatures under a winter anticyclone) but it seems to be a losing battle.

My post was in relation to the mild 850's, I'm well aware of temprature inversions. As it is though,the latter stage of the ECM op run looks mild both at heights and on the surface.

Edited by user Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:37:16 PM | Reason: Not specified

Polar Low
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:31:17 PM

#232

not much change in the mean heights Rob 12gfs from this mornings 6z to our n/e

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Helsinki_ens.png

Looks like the easterly was a non -starter. Have all models backed away from it tonight or should I not bother checking in for a few days?

Originally Posted by: Rob K

I'll be waiting for the ECM ensembles before writing it off. Supposedly the long-range models are mostly showing pressure rising to the NE (or were this morning).

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

Polar Low
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:44:46 PM

#233

Quite a nasty pressure gradient there I wonder if the north east will have any warnings will be issued.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:48:40 PM

#234

What's the ECM like tonight then Marcus ?

Originally Posted by: llamedos

I said in the post above yours John,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,is your eye sight failing you ???

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:51:56 PM

#235

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Quite a climb again after this weekends cold snap, temps only getting back to todays values , so still chilly

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Rob K
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:54:26 PM

#236

not much change in the mean heights Rob 12gfs from this mornings 6z to our n/e

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Helsinki_ens.png

Looks like the easterly was a non -starter. Have all models backed away from it tonight or should I not bother checking in for a few days?

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

I'll be waiting for the ECM ensembles before writing it off. Supposedly the long-range models are mostly showing pressure rising to the NE (or were this morning).

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

Helsinki is more to our east than our northeast though, really. High pressure over Tromso would be more interesting but pressure looks a lot lower there: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Tromsoe_ens.png

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:55:42 PM

#237

Quite a nasty pressure gradient there I wonder if the north east will have any warnings will be issued.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Apart from the ones issued yesterday by the Met Office and updated today, for both winds and snow at that time point? 🤨

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Polar Low
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:05:32 PM

#238

Alright keep you hat on.

Quite a nasty pressure gradient there I wonder if the north east will have any warnings will be issued. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Apart from the ones issued yesterday by the Met Office and updated today, for both winds and snow at that time point? 🤨

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

idj20
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:08:26 PM

#239

Alright keep you hat on.

Quite a nasty pressure gradient there I wonder if the north east will have any warnings will be issued. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Apart from the ones issued yesterday by the Met Office and updated today, for both winds and snow at that time point? 🤨

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

I think it's more a question of him holding onto it very tightly by the looks of things. Certainly going to be very lively at that end of the UK as we go through Thursday.

Edited by user Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:11:32 PM | Reason: Not specified

Folkestone Harbour.

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:11:28 PM

#240

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/03/basis12/ukuk/rart/13120512_2_0312.gif

J F F Very wintry for Scotland

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

doctormog
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:12:05 PM

#241

Alright keep you hat on.

Quite a nasty pressure gradient there I wonder if the north east will have any warnings will be issued. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Apart from the ones issued yesterday by the Met Office and updated today, for both winds and snow at that time point? 🤨

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

I was just pointing out that there have been warnings out for nearly two days on the Met Office site that's all. 😝 [sn_bsmil]

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Quantum
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:12:51 PM

#242

ECM: "Welcome to hell"

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Polar Low
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:14:50 PM

#243

I knew u would cheer me up Q

ECM: "Welcome to hell"

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Rob K
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:14:54 PM

#244

ECM: "Welcome to hell"

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Really? Looks quite benign and dare I say pleasant down here.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome