More of the same then........

Thoughts and discussion on what the models are suggesting/indicating or seducing us with.

I keep popping in here every so often, hoping to see renewed optimism. But all I see is more of the same trash charts, sprinkled with some weirdos who want it to rain

<rose tinted specs mode>

Interesting t240 chart from ECM

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/240_mslp500.png

Still trying to build HP over scandi and with no PV sat up there and the jet sinking south it's not too far away from being 'interesting'. Just need an undercut and a correction North of the core of the HP and we'd be there.

Hints of the same at the end of the GFS run albeit so far out in FI as to be pointless.

<specs off>

Pretty zonal weather coming up, once the current HP influence starts to wane. There's still a couple of little runners shown to spin off very close to Scotland which would need watching - quite a squeeze on the isobars:-

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/120_mslp500.png

Depending on track could be just a bit breezy or something a little more noteworthy.

The jet does gradually sink south although HP is never too far away from the South and nothing interesting is showing in terms of high lat blocking so unsettled but never overly cold seems like a safe bet for a while

I guess if you live or work in Manchester you see enough rain?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

I can't see anything to cheer about in the current output

Just to raise the spirits I give you CFS

Xmas morning:

SLP: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121006/run1m/cfsnh-0-360.png?06

850hPa: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfsnh-2-360.png?06

2m temp:http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfsnh-1-360.png?06

Sorry Marcus..... JFF 

Do the models show the Snow over in Turkey currently  Galatasaray v Juventus abandon due to heavy snow

No worries GTW , you never know something might crop up

And -19C uppers in the south on boxing day. What breed of troll programmed this?!

I think we'll have to wait til after Xmas for anything significant now.

But at least it saves on the heating bills.

Unless the CFS is right, and all the other models are barking up the wrong tree. And to be fair, the CFS has consistantly forecasted a cold spell for xmas recently!

That would be hillarious, and there is a first time for everything 

That will be the genie pool - who has been polishing their lantern?

One bred in the Arctic I imagine Q....

That, as they say, is pure speculation.

You must have seen the models flip in the past.   A week ago the ECM ensembles were showing high pressure and a continental feed dominating out to 14 days.   Then, in the last 2 days, they started to pick up on the high pressure easing away and allowing the Atlantic in.

It's still open to some extent for Xmas week although I am not optimistic that anything especially cold will appear, but I've not written it off completely.

I remember some winters where it was mild and changeable going into Xmas but the pattern changed by New Year. 

Let's see where the 18z end up.

Bitterly cold, raging easterly wind's on the way for christmas. The cold will be so brutal that it will last till the end of time and affect all parallel universes 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121006/run1m/cfs-0-384.png?06

I think historically the period between xmas and new year is supposed to be fairly wintry. The CFS solution is an example of how it could all change, although I have to admit it does seem a somewhat unlikely run with HP suddenly forming over scandanavia for no apparant reason. Still its a possibility, and one that is rather pointless talking about since none of the models suggest anything other than a purple vortex of evil, and the immovable slug of everlasting tedium. 

I'm not sure anyone can say that with any confidence that is 4 weeks of weather you are predicting

Lol why we are all miserably looking at terrible charts, London has just had a light snow shower!!!

One of the stations picked it up. I suspect it came out of fog. 

It's academic now, because it's gone on the 12z run....  But, the HP doesn't form 'for no apparent reason': a surface high with some upper support forms over the UK. When the next LP moves in it throws up some WAA which takes the surface high and moves it to Scandi.  There it connects with an area of slightly warmer uppers moving from NW Russia and builds that intense block.  The whole evolution is supported by the upper cold pool coming west underneath.

You can still see the evolution on Meteociel because the previous runs are still accessible for 24 hours.