Hi folks. Just a quick summary for me before off to work. 

In Summary the models all show a potentially stormy and generally mild period in the run up to Christmas and probably over Christmas too with some rapidly deepening depressions spinning across the Atlantic and up to the NW of Britain with SW gale or severe gales and temperatures remaining generally on the mild side of average. In among the periods of rain some brighter and showery conditions will rush over at times and temperatures will fall briefly to average with some wintry showers over northern hills. But from this morning' output this looks the best we can hope for between now and maybe the New Year as the very strong Jet Stream continues unabated across the Atlantic and the UK supported by High pressure over Southern Europe.

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A nasty satellite low develops on ECM next Thurs. Quite a few of these coming through on all models, looks pretty wet'n'wild as an outlook at present.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 

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Yes all that talk of a record dry December and utterly boring benign weather "locked in for weeks" looks a bit foolish now, doesn't it? Always remember how rapidly the models can change, as demonstrated this week 🙂

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Another? Wet Christmas Days have been pretty rare recently around our neck of the woods.

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Yes the set-up is now conducive for the development of daughter lows bombing around the periphery of the parent low. If the jet phases in sync with one of these we could have a nasty situation.

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The next step in the sequence @ +174.

http://i.imgur.com/mBCJNHL.png 

I wonder if this (if it develops) will track further south as on many recent occasions.

Fascinating analysis Stormchaser.Lets hope that it will eventually shift the south westerly flow which promises currently a mild windy Xmas day.

The theme of blocking over the other side of the pole remains this morning. ECM actually splits the energy apart on day 10, but with part of the energy heading to Canada, we'd be looking for our own PV section to dominate affairs and drive the Atlantic lows south.

Unfortunately, unless something seriously depletes the PV energy, it will be hard to get more than a backend cold blast or two. I say 'blast' because of how energetic the storms are looking - could eventually deliver a brief but remarkable blizzard somewhere.

By eventually, I mean probably after Christmas Day, I'm afraid 

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http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131212/06/168/h850t850eu.png 

Heavy snow to the north and west of the LP.

If this ends up on the path of Jude (ie a more southerly route) - we could see a surprise evaporating cooling snowfall.

Like i said yesterday - lots of potential for short lived snowfall events next week.

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Suprisingly ECM has put out another decent set of charts, with some similar features to last night. In particular we have even bigger height rises over the arctic this time. When and if this stuff starts to appear on the GFS I might be able to say with some confidence when the next cold spell is possible. 

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As well as all the hopecasting for cold and looking deep into FI in the short term theres some very interesting charts around

Next week looks especially interesting with some potentially nasty storms, esp on Thurs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Is that sting jet potential?

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Stormy Next Weelk - Where's The Cold?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks like the US in some dangerous cold while we face an Atlantic onslaught.

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K Outlook for Tuesday 17 Dec 2013 to Thursday 26 Dec 2013:

Through next week it should remain windy across much of the UK. The most unsettled weather will be in the north and west, where there will be a continuing risk of heavy rain and severe gales. Across the south and east the rain should be less widespread and the winds more moderate. Generally mild although some wintry showers are possible in the northwest, and there will be some overnight frosts. Through next weekend and into the following week there is still likely to be the risk of severe gales and heavy rain mainly in the northwest. It should still be mild at times, however there is an increasing chance of temperatures dropping to near or below normal, bringing a risk of frost generally and snow over northern high ground.

Updated: 1150 on Thu 12 Dec 2013

Looks like METO forsee a cooler interval over the Xmas period prsumably with a W/NW flow or ridge following a trough.

Yep pretty much what the output is showing - mean to mild mobility trending cooler zonal in time with a more polar maritime influence.

Better than benign high pressure? If you're fence panels and roof tiles start flying, you might think not.

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Looks more like autumn weather now in prospect rather than winter. Although there's little hope of anything of the cold and wintry variety down here for some time, the suggestion of some slingshot satellite lows as the jet pushes south will hopefully snatch my model watching pulse from imminent morbidity.

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Although it does look set to be rather windy and unsettled over Northern and Western parts over the weekend, GFS is showing a distinct downgrade in terms of storminess as we go into next week which is reassuring for me, but ECM is going off on one (but thats stilll based on the midnight runs ). 
  I guess that's all part of the models still trying to get to grips with it all as they continue to fine tune things.

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I have seen GFS 12z Model Run at the 500 hPa, GFS Stratosphere North Hem Temperatures, GFS Pacific USA Atlantic North (W to E)' Russia and Asia and the Arctic, that included MSLP, 1000-500hPa heights in all those areas mentioned on with GFS 12z run.

And I checked T850 hPa and 500hPa GFS North Hem, and Europe Atlantic as well, a large intake of info to interpret the Outlook from now to upto t168 and t192hrs.

The Situation has Very Old Airmass in W and NW Russia, N and NW and NE Siberia and through Canada, USA Central and NE plus NNW and NE Europe, Iceland NW and Far N and far NE Atlantic that includes Svalbard and much of Eastern and SE to mid Norwegian Sea and all over and out wards over and in Greenland and it's SEA- Surface forecasted Temps at 850 hPa are at -10 to -30 deg C and some -5's for the UK at times too.

The -70 to -75 even -78 or lower Temps in the Stratosphere for N NW and NE UK and Canada NE USA, Greenland Iceland much of the Arctic very cold from now to T192 hrs. South and SW at first in USA High Strat temps of -40 c, moves to SE USA and Central South mid Atlantic area during mid and latter part in the forecast, and high over W Central Africa and close to and near over South Asia is High pressure which spreads SW to the other West SW Central Africa Regions.

The Polar Arctic Vortex Shape and it's intense low Temps spread out covers lots of areas as much out from the Central Pole that it covers it affects Canada Iceland Siberia NE and N Europe UK and Iceland affected as well! and the PV Low's Pressure and a vortexes are large Strong things, with Stormy and Cold to less Cold Waves interaction with Short and long Wave Low's and Trof's etc.

The UK get hit as well as NE and N USA and many other large parts of N Hemisphere!!!.

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UKMO 12z Commentary.

This Friday it Turns Wet and Windy- it will be mild but turn colder from the West.

This Saturday Mild or Cool in the South and SE, Windy with heavy Rain and cooler in West and NW UK, rain on and off for all parts Overcast.

Very Windy NW and N, later this Saturday in N Ireland and Scotland.

Sunday all areas plenty of Strong Winds and areas of Overcast and Heavy Rain, near Av. temps.

Monday West and N to NE windiest with more of the Rain, with Central South and SW parts seeing some dry and bright sun, but Showers possible for the West SW and in the North of this part, winds moderate or light in Central and South.

Turning Colder overnight and more Deep Low pressure moves across the SW to to NE very windy for several hours in Evening and early on Tuesday.

It will later on Tuesday lift the temps from SW ahead of Wednesday and Thursday's area of Low Preesure and it will stay milder for Wednesday next Week, but then cold and Showery with some hail and Sleet or Hill plus Mountain Snow or sleet showers with Winds from the NW direction after it is SW then West flow from Tuesday night to Wednesday Night.

This Weather System will bring Severe Gales and and Storm Surges for West SW South and NW and NE plus the East as well on Wednesday through Thursday.

Thursday could turn very cold and windy with frost overnight, and Another Deep NW Atlantic PV low will cross Friday and Saturday - At day 8 and day 9, it will bring Severe Gales with prolonged heavy and active torrential rain then turn colder with NW winds by Saturday or Sunday, and then plenty of heavy and blustery showers with hill sleet and snow possible.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

Mild

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png

Then a shock for many

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

chilly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

chillier still

Some days much more akin to December from GFS

 

 

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

XMAS day looks awful...............................on this run

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Nothing changed as another day goes by. Classic sinusoidal ENS pattern indicative of a zonal steam train with no MLB or HLB of note in sight in our third of the N Hemisphere.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013121212/ECH0-168.GIF?12-0

Changeable and cooler from ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013121212/ECH1-168.GIF?12-0

 

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ECM shows stubborn high pressure over Europe

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013121212/ECH1-240.GIF

and no let up in the temperature gradient over the Pond

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013121212/ECH0-240.GIF

 

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I think we'll be hearing a lot about brutal cold and disruptive snow across the States this holiday season - Just to rub salt into the wounds.

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I wonder if we can 'see ' their cold December and 'raise' them our own frigid jan/feb?

gawd, I've turned into madden!