Model Output Discussion 10/12/13 onwards >>>>· Page 11

Gooner
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 11:36:43

#256

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Charts for 2014 are nearly upon us

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Matty H
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 12:02:57

#257

I'm naturally elated at the total lack of any cold for my area in the foreseeable. I'm not nearly so elated at the way we seem to be heading smack into a period of very unsettled weather. Flooding risk would reemerge for prone areas.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

My thoughts entirely- this could be a very serious period of stormy weather indeed.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

I have to laugh

Pays your money and take your choice ,we either have HP and 'boring'weather , cold and wintry outbreaks or I am afraid W/SWlies and unsettled with periods of rain

We are the UK

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Not entirely accurate. It's been very dry the last few weeks here and mild. Doesn't have to be wet and windy to be mild in winter here. Admittedly that's more often the case

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Hence why I threw HP and boring weather in Matty which has given us mid and dry weather......= Boring

Originally Posted by: Matty H

You'd better get used to it. Mild is here to stay for some considerable time I think [sn_appr]

Not even any FFS charts out there. This time next week the days will be drawing out and spring will be peaking its head above the horizon 😉

Mind you, we've all seen entrenched patterns flip at the drop of a hat many times before, so still a fair way to go yet.

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
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polarwind
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 12:04:37

#258

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Charts for 2014 are nearly upon us

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Yep - out with the old and in with the new (incl. circulation pattern)

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
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Dave,Derby

Gooner
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 12:16:28

#259

I'm naturally elated at the total lack of any cold for my area in the foreseeable. I'm not nearly so elated at the way we seem to be heading smack into a period of very unsettled weather. Flooding risk would reemerge for prone areas.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

My thoughts entirely- this could be a very serious period of stormy weather indeed.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I have to laugh

Pays your money and take your choice ,we either have HP and 'boring'weather , cold and wintry outbreaks or I am afraid W/SWlies and unsettled with periods of rain

We are the UK

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Not entirely accurate. It's been very dry the last few weeks here and mild. Doesn't have to be wet and windy to be mild in winter here. Admittedly that's more often the case

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Hence why I threw HP and boring weather in Matty which has given us mid and dry weather......= Boring

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

You'd better get used to it. Mild is here to stay for some considerable time I think Approve

Not even any FFS charts out there. This time next week the days will be drawing out and spring will be peaking its head above the horizon Wink

Mind you, we've all seen entrenched patterns flip at the drop of a hat many times before, so still a fair way to go yet.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Agreed , sadly. Nothing even remotely good ( cold wise)

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Jive Buddy
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 12:36:44

#260

I'm naturally elated at the total lack of any cold for my area in the foreseeable. I'm not nearly so elated at the way we seem to be heading smack into a period of very unsettled weather. Flooding risk would reemerge for prone areas.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

My thoughts entirely- this could be a very serious period of stormy weather indeed.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I have to laugh

Pays your money and take your choice ,we either have HP and 'boring'weather , cold and wintry outbreaks or I am afraid W/SWlies and unsettled with periods of rain

We are the UK

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Not entirely accurate. It's been very dry the last few weeks here and mild. Doesn't have to be wet and windy to be mild in winter here. Admittedly that's more often the case

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Hence why I threw HP and boring weather in Matty which has given us mid and dry weather......= Boring

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

You'd better get used to it. Mild is here to stay for some considerable time I think Approve

Not even any FFS charts out there. This time next week the days will be drawing out and spring will be peaking its head above the horizon Wink

Mind you, we've all seen entrenched patterns flip at the drop of a hat many times before, so still a fair way to go yet.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

A Long range forecast from Matty?!

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.

doctormog
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 12:41:11

#261

To be honest the weather is probably pretty average in terms of overall temperatures in the coming week or so, with any mild weather being tempered by the wind and separated by cooler interludes.

One thing that we could probably all agree on though is that it looks rather unsettled.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 12:43:59

#262

The current pattern is a very stable one in the sense of low pressure to our N and W, High pressure to our S and E.

This pattern can sustain itself all winter. I wont bore you with numerous examples from the last 40 years.

The models are churning out mild, albeit sometimes wet and windy, with a bit of Pm air to keep the NW contingent in with a shout of some wintriness with altitude.

Positives - "interesting" mobile weather; lower energy bills.

Negatives - wind and rain, lack of Eye Candy (other than the furthest reaches of FI, occasionally...)

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Gavin P
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 12:57:34

#263

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Mildest December Since 1988 Developing?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking like a "December To Remember" for the wrong reasons.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
Guest

15 December 2013 13:01:28

#264

Thanks for the record high temp in uk dec info.... I used to work in horticulture for around 8 years, we really need a cold spell, pref below freezing to keep the plant world in sync.... apart from stuff budding And peeking out of the ground early, and then getting frost damage.... the plant world, especially seeds need natural stratification (a proper freezing) so lets hope that the weather changes sooner rather than later, even if its only a short time, a single week will do.... Also, what is OROGRAPHIC rain?
VSC

DEW
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 14:02:17

#265

Thanks for the record high temp in uk dec info.... I used to work in horticulture for around 8 years, we really need a cold spell, pref below freezing to keep the plant world in sync.... apart from stuff budding And peeking out of the ground early, and then getting frost damage.... the plant world, especially seeds need natural stratification (a proper freezing) so lets hope that the weather changes sooner rather than later, even if its only a short time, a single week will do.... Also, what is OROGRAPHIC rain?
VSC

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER

Rainfall caused by moist air being forced to ascend over mountains, thereby cooling and condensing out the moistures as rain.

For a spectacular and disastrous example see

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/nov2009

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 14:26:26

#266

Thanks for the record high temp in uk dec info.... I used to work in horticulture for around 8 years, we really need a cold spell, pref below freezing to keep the plant world in sync.... apart from stuff budding And peeking out of the ground early, and then getting frost damage.... the plant world, especially seeds need natural stratification (a proper freezing) so lets hope that the weather changes sooner rather than later, even if its only a short time, a single week will do.... Also, what is OROGRAPHIC rain?
VSC

Originally Posted by: DEW

Rainfall caused by moist air being forced to ascend over mountains, thereby cooling and condensing out the moistures as rain.

For a spectacular and disastrous example see

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/nov2009

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER

The effects can be seen clearly on the GFS 06z cumulative rainfall map:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/3h.htm

Western side of Scotland predicted to get an inch (25mm) of rain per day over the next 8 days. Western side of Wales around 8-10mm per day.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 14:41:30

#267

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

This looks rough for many , a VERY unsettled spell on the way for sure

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Talking of rough, I found this whilst reviewing the wind gust charts from the 06z

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121506/84-289UK.GIF?15-6

Mean wind speeds:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121506/84-602UK.GIF?15-6

Associated with a very sharply defined cold front:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121506/84-7UK.GIF?15-6

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Gavin P
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 14:48:30

#268

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Mildest December Since 1988 Developing?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking like a "December To Remember" for the wrong reasons.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Thanks for the record high temp in uk dec info.... I used to work in horticulture for around 8 years, we really need a cold spell, pref below freezing to keep the plant world in sync.... apart from stuff budding And peeking out of the ground early, and then getting frost damage.... the plant world, especially seeds need natural stratification (a proper freezing) so lets hope that the weather changes sooner rather than later, even if its only a short time, a single week will do.... Also, what is OROGRAPHIC rain?
VSC

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER

Thanks. I actually forgot to show the all time wamest December in 1974 - 8.1. Given how mild this December has been and we're still a long way short of 1974, that must have been some month!!!

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

JoeShmoe99
Guest

15 December 2013 14:49:53

#269

The PV over Grrenland and Canada is just enormous this year and fuelling a very powerful jet stream

Will take a lot of shifting - I dont pretend to understand stratospheric stuff but you have a think only a hardcore SSW or multiples thereof would cause it to split or relocate

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 15:10:35

#270

The PV over Grrenland and Canada is just enormous this year and fuelling a very powerful jet stream

Will take a lot of shifting - I dont pretend to understand stratospheric stuff but you have a think only a hardcore SSW or multiples thereof would cause it to split or relocate

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99

There's certainly some warming showing up on the Asian side of the Pole, based on the GFS 06z:

T+6: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121506/gfsnh-10-6.png?6

T+384: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121506/gfsnh-10-384.png?6

But that's far from 'sudden' or 'rapid' - it's about 30C over 5-6 days (the MetOffice definition says 50C in 2 days).

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Gooner
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 16:35:51

#271

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121512/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

GFS now considering some more HP

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Charmhills
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 16:38:10

#272

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121512/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

GFS now considering some more HP

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Oh dear.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 16:45:09

#273

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121512/gfsnh-0-240.png?12
GFS now considering some more HP

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Oh dear.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Yep, that's a recipe for another dose of mild boring nothingness. Matty will love it... 😉

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 16:49:54

#274

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Mildest December Since 1988 Developing?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking like a "December To Remember" for the wrong reasons.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Thanks for the record high temp in uk dec info.... I used to work in horticulture for around 8 years, we really need a cold spell, pref below freezing to keep the plant world in sync.... apart from stuff budding And peeking out of the ground early, and then getting frost damage.... the plant world, especially seeds need natural stratification (a proper freezing) so lets hope that the weather changes sooner rather than later, even if its only a short time, a single week will do.... Also, what is OROGRAPHIC rain?
VSC

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Thanks. I actually forgot to show the all time wamest December in 1974 - 8.1. Given how mild this December has been and we're still a long way short of 1974, that must have been some month!!!

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER

Was probably a Bartlett winter - the mildest winter come when HP is located to feed continuous SW winds over England and Wales.

Here you go - article on Dec 1974:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281975%29103%3C0266%3AWACOD%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Edited by user 15 December 2013 16:52:13 | Reason: Not specified

New world order coming.

Rob K
Advanced Member

15 December 2013 17:29:18

#275

After a few GFS runs showing hints of something more promising towards January, the 12z is a bit of a step back towards continued zonality of the flatter more boring variety.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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