Good evening. Here is my slant on the latest report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday December 14th 2013.
All models show a very mixed spell of weather over the next 4-5 days. In essence there will be periods of rain for all in mostly mild conditions offset by an often strong SW wind, reaching gale or severe gale force at times towards the NW. On Monday and Tuesday a respite in conditions look likely across Southern Britain as High pressure moves quickly East close to the South of the UK with something of a ridge from it giving less windy and colder weather for a day or so. By midweek a new storm system to the NW will push troughs across the UK with strong winds bringing heavy rain to all with gales and severe gales over all areas once more.
GFS then shows a colder and showery period with some wintry showers over the higher hills before further spells of stormy and wet weather storms in from the West on occasion. It looks like Christmas will be a potentially stormy period with heavy rain or severe gales more likely to be newsworthy rather than snowfall, though Northern hills will see some of this at times as temperatures fall back slowly to average and maybe a little below at times.
UKMO tonight shows the end of next week with deep Low pressure out to the North and NW with a broad and strong SW flow across the UK. It would be becoming milder again after a colder showery few days before the end of the run. Fronts crossing NE would again bring heavy rain across all areas but most prolific in the North and West.
GEM tonight shows fast changing weather patterns with rain and strong winds at times with temperatures never far from normal offset by the strength of the wind at times.
NAVGEM shows a wet and very windy period to end next week and the weekend with strong to gale and locally severe gale winds at times with bouts of heavy rain and showers for all areas at times, wintry over Northern hills.
ECM tonight shows deeply unsettled and occasionally stormy conditions on the run up to Christmas with copious rainfall for all areas at times with the most volatile weather likely towards Christmas. Colder conditions could accompany this period too when some wintry showers with snow in places might occur in amongst the spells of rain in some places over the Christmas period despite winds from a Westerly source.
The GFS Ensembles tonight endorse universal support for a very volatile spell of winter weather to come. There is spells of heavy rain and severe gales with very low pressure readings at times later across the UK. Temperatures will become less mild with time and there will probably be some snow on hills though this will be far from the main talking point of the weather over the period overshadowed by the potential of damaging winds and heavy rain by most members.
The Jet Stream remains extremely powerful throughout the coming few weeks with it's position gradually moving further South over the UK and then to the South in week 2.
In Summary it's probably the most mobile and boisterous Atlantic pattern of weather we have seen for some years at this time of year with the prospect of a very windy and wet Christmas looking more and more likely day by day. While some colder air will be entrained in the strong airflow at times with some snowfall at times on Northern hills the main talking point at the end of the period should tonight's charts verify will be the amounts of rain and potentially damaging strong winds that could buffet the UK at times over the period. Interestingly there could also be some very low air pressure readings at times across the UK with some near record low level readings occurring over the UK at times.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY