Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 16th 2013.
All models continue the unsettled and often windy theme with High pressure to the South and very deep Low pressure to the North and NW. The next 24 hours will see the High to the South throw a ridge across England and Wales tonight and tomorrow with the rain belt here currently clearing away East overnight. Some mist and fog will develop with a fair day tomorrow before gales and heavy rain sweep back over the UK on Wednesday with colder still windy and showery weather on Thursday with wintry showers in the North. The end of the week and weekend sees strong winds and rain never far away from the UK as the status-quo synoptically is maintained though milder conditions will be featured more than the slightly colder and showery weather over the weekend.
GFS then shows the run up to Christmas as very unsettled and often wet and temperatures will slowly lose their mild status as lower uppers associated with deep low pressure dig in over the UK. With a powerful jet stream still evident close to the UK some powerful storm systems look possible over the Christmas Holiday with severe gale or storm force winds possible with a lot of rain too at times mixed with spells of wintry showers, especially over the North. A short spell of colder northerly winds is shown by the operational tonight as we move towards the New Year but it is very short-lived as milder, windy and changeable conditions return over the New Year period with rain at times.
UKMO shows a broad Westerly flow across the UK next Sunday with showers or longer spells of rain moving swiftly East in the flow with fluctuating temperatures ranging from rather chilly early in the day and milder by Sunday night as the next Low approaches.
GEM also indicates a very volatile run up to Christmas with strong and often mild SW winds and spells of rain blowing through on the wind with some rather chillier and more showery conditions over the North at times. Christmas shows a very unsettled period with Boxing Day tonight looking particularly wild and wet with storm force winds and heavy rain followed by squally showers.
NAVGEM too shows a very unsettled start to next week with a strong WSW wind delivering spells of rain in largely mild conditions.
ECM shows deteriorating conditions next week with mild and wet weather on most days culminating a in colder and even deeper unsettled conditions over the Christmas period with spells of rain falling as snow at times over the hills along with the risk of severe gales with damaging gusts as surface temperatures fall close to or a little below average.
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continual period of average uppers over the UK made up from members showing alternating days of milder then chillier conditions without ever becoming particularly cold. With regard to precipitation there is copious amounts of rainfall shown throughout the period and at times this could fall as wet snow at times as polar maritime air crosses over Britain on occasion, especially later.
The Jet Stream remains the focal point for the continuation of this mobile and sometimes stormy setup. It continues to flow rapidly across the Atlantic and ver the UK throughout the run with the axis slipping further Southward in Week 2 whilest losing none of it'ss strength and dominance.
In Summary the weather remains unchanged tonight with only day to day variations within a very static patern of strong West or SW winds between very deep Low pressure to the North and High pressure well to the South. The Christmas period looks particularly stormy with heavy rain, gales and even a little snow all possible over the holiday period with little noticeable improvement or release from the pattern even up to the New Year. So it's a case of watching the skies for wind, rain and gales rather than snow and ice that will occupy us weather observers over the coming 10-14 days.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset