Stormy run-up to Xmas· Page 4

molitor
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 17:56:20

Indeed, I think it's now time to get nervous and check to see if house insurance policy are up to date. That's going to hurt their coffers but good news for the building trade.

Eagerly awaiting the next runs to see if they soften the blow but I have a feeling it's not going to be good news.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Did you fix your roof?

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Indeed, all fixed up and good as new. Now here's hoping the roof remains attached to the house by Christmas.

Originally Posted by: idj20

Joking aside Ian, I am "concerned" at this stage by the forecast for 23/24 December.

For me a SW is far better than a Southerly as my house is much more sheltered that way. Gusts of around 80-85mph are forecast on a direct southerly and I am conscious of this. Hmmm...

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

The 12z GFS has upped the maximum wind gusts further for the SE quarter on Monday, which is not good news. Not only that but the gusts of 60-75mph keep going from 3pm on Monday until 3am on Tuesday, a full 12 hours.

Isle of Wight and Channel Islands have gusts of 75-80mph for six hours overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Gusts:

At 9am the system is starting to affect the far west: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/45-289UK.GIF?21-12

by Noon, well into western areas: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/48-289UK.GIF?21-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/51-289UK.GIF?21-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/54-289UK.GIF?21-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-289UK.GIF?21-12

At Midnight little movement, still covering an area from The Wash to IoW: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/60-289UK.GIF?21-12

Average wind speed for the SE for the six hours from 6pm to Midnight on Xmas Eve are predicted to be 35-40mph

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/54-602UK.GIF?21-12

9pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-602UK.GIF?21-12

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/60-602UK.GIF?21-12

That's Force 7 sustained for 6 hours

Originally Posted by: idj20

Mmmmn - Guernsey has had it pretty rough today with the wind and rain.... Its not looking pretty for us for Monday!

Si Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur

Global Warming
Guest

21 December 2013 17:58:17

#77

Rainfall totals also very worrying given the ground is saturated. Here is the NMM accumulated precipitation up to 12z Tuesday. Many places can expect 50mm plus and some parts, especially higher ground, will see more than 100mm.

So significant flooding and wind damage combined could ruin Christmas for many unfortunately. The potential for serious disruption cannot be overstated at this point.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122112/nmm-25-72-1.png?21-18

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 18:03:47

#78

Rainfall totals also very worrying given the ground is saturated. Here is the NMM accumulated precipitation up to 12z Tuesday. Many places can expect 50mm plus and some parts, especially higher ground, will see more than 100mm.

So significant flooding and wind damage combined could ruin Christmas for many unfortunately. The potential for serious disruption cannot be overstated at this point.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122112/nmm-25-72-1.png?21-18

Originally Posted by: Global Warming

Up to 4 inches in 3 days over the North Downs. Sheesh Man!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member Topic Starter

21 December 2013 18:15:43

#79

ECM shows Monday's low pressure down to sub-925mb at T+72 (Noon). That's 80mb of deepening in 48 hours....

T+24: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122112/ECM1-24.GIF?21-0

T+72: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122112/ECM1-72.GIF?21-0

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Stormchaser
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 18:43:25

#80

I have been trying to make the jaws of friends and family drop by showing them the charts for Monday, but most of them are not very familiar with them so it doesn't have the desired impact

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/12/57/windvector.png

That there is the most epic wind chart I have seen since I started watching the models half a decade ago. The spatial coverage of those near-60mph sustained winds puts many low-end hurricanes to shame!

The frontal system advancing across the UK during the day looks to be a right monster, with a real focusing of the wind energy to generate some extreme gusts, with 60-70mph widespread and 80mph or so very much possible even inland - as has been well discussed by many on here already.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-289.GIF?21-12

The GFS version is similar to the WRF-NMM version, though marginally less severe with 110-120kph (68-75mph) rather than 120-130kph gusts.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 18:47:46

#81

I have been trying to make the jaws of friends and family drop by showing them the charts for Monday, but most of them are not very familiar with them so it doesn't have the desired impact

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/12/57/windvector.png

That there is the most epic wind chart I have seen since I started watching the models half a decade ago. The spatial coverage of those near-60mph sustained winds puts many low-end hurricanes to shame!

The frontal system advancing across the UK during the day looks to be a right monster, with a real focusing of the wind energy to generate some extreme gusts, with 60-70mph widespread and 80mph or so very much possible even inland - as has been well discussed by many on here already.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-289.GIF?21-12

The GFS version is similar to the WRF-NMM version, though marginally less severe with 110-120kph (68-75mph) rather than 120-130kph gusts.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

Hmm, not for the faint-hearted.

Off for a curry! Im going to have a look tomorrow and hope that things have moderated just a tad.

WI

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

glenogle
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 19:13:34

#82

Off for a curry!

WI

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

There is no need to make the situation any worse

LLTNP 105m asl

Stormchaser
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 19:17:18

#83

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gooner
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 19:45:30

#84

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member Topic Starter

21 December 2013 19:52:28

#85

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

Based on earlier exchanges, Saint might be fairly happy. Probably wants the centre 200 miles further south.....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

SEMerc
Guest

21 December 2013 20:12:40

#86

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

I'm certainly not. I'm due to be flying out on Monday.

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 20:25:04

#87

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

I'm not really looking forward to that at all....................................who is?

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Based on earlier exchanges, Saint might be fairly happy. Probably wants the centre 200 miles further south.....

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

Perhaps 400

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

JoeShmoe99
Guest

21 December 2013 20:35:06

#88

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

Good grief

I've told my parents to travel Mon am and have warned friends to try and avoid travel Xmas eve

Sadly there is every possibility that the storm could not only ruin a lot of people's Xmas but cause real danger to the traveling public. The storm we had up here a few weeks ago where there were fatalities wasn't as severe as this one is forecast to be

NickR
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 20:55:51

#89

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-72.png?12

It worries me that scenarios like this are still within the possible range. It means that the trend to deepen the storm further could continue further

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99

Good grief

I've told my parents to travel Mon am and have warned friends to try and avoid travel Xmas eve

Sadly there is every possibility that the storm could not only ruin a lot of people's Xmas but cause real danger to the traveling public. The storm we had up here a few weeks ago where there were fatalities wasn't as severe as this one is forecast to be

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

My parents are travelling from Canterbury to Durham. I've told them Monday leaving 6am to get here by 12pm or 24th at the same time, just as the winds are dying down in Kent... 24th looks OK for most of England apart from here in the NE, so a journey here from the south should be OK although with a tricky last 45 mins.

That's my thinking, anyway.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

patricia
Guest

21 December 2013 22:20:26

#90

I,m worried about the 23rd where I live as I have to go to a funeral

tinybill
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 22:22:35

#91

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

look like fun for us monday winds of 74 mph monday night ,bbc saying at the moment 964 mb so all be verycarefull this one could as bad as st jude

NickR
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 22:25:33

#92

I,m worried about the 23rd where I live as I have to go to a funeral

Originally Posted by: patricia

Sorry to hear that, Patricia. What time? If it's the morning you'll be OK.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

Steam Fog
Guest

21 December 2013 22:27:44

#93

Stormy after Christmas too!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0

schmee
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 22:32:16

#94

The BBC confirm the winds and amounts of rain. Flooding a real problem for low laying worst effected areas. Yep and stormy after. yuck

Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham

doctormog
Advanced Member

21 December 2013 22:35:18

#95

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem721.gif (note that this is the ECM ensemble mean from the 12z data)

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Global Warming
Guest

21 December 2013 22:43:45

#96

The 18z run is not for the faint hearted. Seriously nasty conditions shown on this run. The second storm at the end of next week warrants just as much attention as the first one before Christmas. It is not as deep but it becomes very slow moving right over the UK bringing wild weather for an extended period of time.

12z Monday low at 948mb to the west of Scotland
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/42-515UK.GIF?21-18

6z Tuesday low centre is 927mb off the NW of Scotland
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/60-515UK.GIF?21-18

The second storm reaches its peak before it even gets to the UK because it moves so slowly. Here it is at 939mb at 12z on Friday
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/138-515UK.GIF?21-18

Ireland is in the firing line Friday evening
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/144-515UK.GIF?21-18

Even by 18z on Saturday the winds are still very strong across most of the UK despite the low having filled somewhat
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/168-515UK.GIF?21-18

Another secondary low develops for Sunday and the winds pick up again
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/186-515UK.GIF?21-18
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122118/192-515UK.GIF?21-18

The next system moves in on Monday evening after which things finally calm down a bit
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122118/gfs-0-216.png?18

Edited by user 21 December 2013 22:48:16 | Reason: Not specified