The 18z and 00z GFS runs have upped the strength of the gusts in the SE on Monday night into Christmas Eve - there are widespread 70s on xcweather, with Kent showing the strongest winds in the UK in the early hours of Christmas Eve (gusts to 78 MPH being the highest I can find).

The culprit seems to be a tightening of the isobars in the warm sector, meaning the SE (and Kent in particular) will see some of the strongest gusts from this storm. Further north and west the main thrust of winds will be later on Christmas Eve as the low deepens to 930 or less. GFS shows lower gusts (generally below 70 MPH) but higher mean wind speeds (around 45 to 50, rather than 35 to 40 as is the case further south).

Neither of those options sounds very nice TBH and I'm not looking forward to the 80 MPH+ gusts that we will doubtless be receiving down here early in the morning on Christmas Eve. Hopefully the power will stay on for everyone, as otherwise a pretty miserable Christmas beckons!

Good post Darren.  I think its inevtable now that the south coast of Kent is going to bear the full force of the impact of this storm in the early hours of Christmas Eve, before the focus switches to the NW later in the day.  Strong gusts will also affect inland areas east of the meridian; we have to hope that whatever damage is done is limited and fixable.  At least most people willl be tucked up in bed, cowering under the duvet, or blissfully unaware.

Probably a question for the laydeez Ian

  There  are bound to be a few ladies of Tontine Street who can answer your question Ian

Classic

Perhaps a specific thread for the first storm is needed?

Some of the solutions on offer for Mon 23rd into 24th are quite frankly historic. Most of the GEFS and ECM OP deepen the low at a rate of nearly 10mb per 3hrs - I've not seen that before.
The progged mean and gusts on few members would probably rank this storm up in the top five of all time - and one can only hope the blend solution is 'prefered' and most people get away without too much damage.

The strongest winds affect England and Wales on Mon evening and Scotland early hours Tues am.

The worrying thing is that there is still room for upgrades. The 28th October storm downgraded slightly from T+48 to T 0, not this one.

Locally this is now worse and longer than the October storm.

Hopefully the authorities will wake up to the potential havoc this storm could wreak today.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122200/48-289.GIF?22-0

There also remains the possibility of downgrades, which would be better all round.  I can recall many (Most) occasions when the forecast has moderated at close quarters - usually within 24 and sometimes 12 hours of the so-called event.  Each event needs to be regarded on its own "merit" of course, and on the face of it, this event Mon/Tues does look severe.  I await the forecast on Monday morning with interest.

WI

From an Engineers viewpoint and which others should find interesting is the exponential increase in wind pressure on buildings for instance,  as compared with Beaufort Scale (from the Dutch KNMI, here)

Bft                Wind Pressure

                    N/m2

0                  0.03
1                  1.4
2                  6.8
3                  18
4                  39
5                  72
6                  119
7                  183
8                  268
9                  372
10                504
11                660
12             > 660

So a little deepening of this storm resulting in a small increase in wind speed, when wind speeds are already high, and the pressure on trees and structures increses greatly as compared with the effects of the same windspeed increase when wind speeds are low.

A stormy chart for us, this looks like winds in the 80mph bracket (like the chart for the other day). A small change in track could make the difference though. The centre is over Lewis, it could easily be over us, or further west. Plenty of time for that to happen....but it looks very wild for us yet again.

http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php#060

Here is the 6z fax chart which shows the low that will become tomorrow's storm moving into the Atlantic off the Canadian coast with a central pressure of 1008mb. Watch how that changes over the next 48 hours. If the models are to be believed it will drop 80mb in the next 48 hours.

The system already has a double frontal feature associated with it.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+00.gif

Certainly looking 'iffy' for quite a large part of the UK

The next storm on the 27th/28th is looking fairly worrying too.

Add in the copious rain and all in all disruption would appear to be almost certain.

Interesting from a weather point of view, worrying from any other point of view!

The GFS output is now very consistent run to run for tomorrow's storm so the chances of a downgrade seem to be diminishing.

The 6z has the low centre at 927mb 09z on Tuesday
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/51-515UK.GIF?22-6

Wind gusts of up to 140kph (87mph) in the eastern English Channel and up the Dover Strait just after midnight on Tuesday morning
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/42-289UK.GIF?22-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/45-289UK.GIF?22-6

Similar speeds for the NW of Ireland and the west coast of Scotland a little later in the morning
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/48-289UK.GIF?22-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/51-289UK.GIF?22-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122206/54-289UK.GIF?22-6

The NAE seems unable to cope with pressure below 950mb. But just look at that huge area on the chart where the pressure is below 950mb
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/22/basis06/ukuk/ismh/13122400_2_2206.gif

This chart from the NMM model for 0z Tuesday is quite worrying. Wind gusts in the SE even inland quite widely in the 120 - 130kph bracket (75-80mph).
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122200/nmm-11-48-1.png?22-06

Keep us informed what wind speeds you get - I'd never be surprised if you got something over 120 mph.

 A 50mb pressure gradient between the Western Isles and Kent.

https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/LSzJtF-hYnKgOhiQOjfTEdMTjNZETYmyPJy0liipFm0?feat=directlink

I've created a graph of Shulista peak gust speeds for December. 13 days have seen peak gust speeds > 60mph with 4 having speeds > 80mph. Just 4 days have seen gusts < 50mph. I know we live in a windy spot, but this month has been blustery indeed.

PS. Not sure why the link to image isn't working with Picasa....

Have just come across this fantastic real time global wind map.

See -

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-21.50,46.68,302

You can move anywhere round the globe, you can zoom in and no doubt we can all see how the storms in the next few days develop and affect our region.

For me to make it work, I had to reload everytime after I had got the globe location I wanted.

Edit: Trying the link again, I now don't need to reload.

I'm a bit puzzled that the METO warning is yellow alert for Monday and Tuesday ,mentions gusts 80-90 mph ,but doesn't mention  anything about damage.?That doesnt seem to sit easily with some of the comments on this thread.

My own take is that the more southerly tracking(at present) LP on the 27th looks a bigger threat.