Good morning everyone. Here is this morning's look at the synoptics for the UK over the run up to Christmas, Christmas itself, run up to the New Year and into the first days of 2014 data supplied from the midnight outputs from the NWP for Sunday December 22nd 2013.
All models show a showery WSW flow today which will deliver scattered showers and breezy weather to all areas with some heavy and wintry showers over the hills of the North. Tonight shows winds backing SW as a rapidly deepening depression in mid Atlantic moves NE towards the NW of Scotland tomorrow with a very wet and windy spell for all with severe gales and potentially storm force winds in the NW for a while. Clearer and more showery weather will reach the West and North by dusk. Christmas Eve then shows all areas in a very windy and showery WSW flow again with showers, turning progressively wintry on Northern and Central hills through the day. Any remaining rain from the previous day will clear the SE. Christmas Day and Boxing Day shows isobars opening up over the UK giving much less windy days with as a result many inland areas staying dry and bright in rather cold winter sunshine. However, Western coasts and hills will be peppered with showers and where these are allowed to drift inland on prevailing winds they could be heavy and wintry. Late on Boxing Day winds will back SW and freshen again markedly with Friday seeing another very deep depression close to NW Britain with another area of very strong winds and rain followed by showers the order of the period as we approach next weekend.
GFS then show the rest of the period between Christmas and the New Year as remaining unsettled and windy with showers and periods of rain. Though rather chilly at times in the North under the more showery interludes the South looks like it could turn milder as pressure builds over Europe. Into the first days of the New Year a brief colder and drier interlude is quickly squashed away South as Westerly winds return though with pressure staying high not far from the South all areas will become quite mild with rainfall much more restricted to far Northern and NW areas.
UKMO closes it's output for next Saturday with deep Low pressure up to the West of Scotland with a strong to gale WSW wind blowing everywhere with further rain or showers in very average temperatures.
GEM shows pressure building over Europe next weekend and while this period will be still influenced by Low pressure North of the UK with attendant rain and showers with time the worst of the weather will transfer more towards the North and West while Southern and Eastern parts slowly turn less wet and rather milder.
NAVGEM remains very unsettled next weekend with Low pressure still covering sea areas North of Scotland with strong and blustery West or SW winds over Britain with heavy rain at times in largely very average temperatures.
ECM keeps the unsettled and windy theme going throughout the post Christmas period and up to the New Year with Low pressure close to northern Britain throughout. As a result there will plenty more wind and rain though the threat of damaging winds should steadily diminish. Temperatures look like holding close to average for all.
The GFS Ensembles today show virtually no chance of any significant cold weather developing on a natuionwide scale at all over the last week of this year nor the first week of the New Year. Instead uppers are locked solid at average levels as far as the eye can see and with plenty of rain spikes from all members at times the Atlantic remains in complete control of this seasons UK Winter so far. The damaging winds of the current period do look like becoming less of an issue as we reach the New Year but rainfall amounts could continue to be a problem on flood plains and other susceptible low lying areas.
The Jet Stream continues to pump actively out of the States for the duration of this morning's output. It oscillates between a position over and to the South of the UK over the next week in response to the ebb and flow of the low pressure systems to it's North. In Week 2 a temporary weakening of strength is short lived as a new surge is shown crossing the Atlantic towards the UK later in week 2.
In Summary the weather remains locked in an Atlantic pattern which looks like refusing to lie down. There are plenty more active and powerful Low pressure areas between now and the New Year each producing their own version of gales, heavy rain followed by showers with the chance of wintry showers over the hills at times, largely in the North. In Week 2 there are some signs of pressure rising over the Meditteranean Sea and pulling the Jet flow more NE towards Scandinavia and as a result sucking milder air across the South and East while maintaining quite unsettled but less stormy conditions however, this all looks tentative at the moment. The one constant between all the models being that not one shows any excursion into anything cold and wintry so we are left stuck looking at wind and rain events for the foreseeable and staring at the computer models outermost limits for seeking any embryonic signs of change. I think the 240 hr mean chart sums up our problem for cold weather fans this morning considering this is a chart for 10 days from now.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
Edited by user
22 December 2013 09:12:48
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset