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Zubzero
22 December 2013 15:42:12




Met Office WARNINGS FOR SOUTH WEST  ARE NOW AMBER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY....


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



For rain.   The warnings for wind, for some reason, have not yet been issued ......


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Maybe we are making too much of it?


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


I dont think so going by the 12z gfs 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfs-0-48.png?12 wow 

Stormchaser
22 December 2013 15:44:43

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-3-1-120.png?6


Aaaaaarrrrgggghhh!


Or...


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-132.png?6


Super Channel Low!


 


Some very dangerous options in the ensemble members for that probable round 2 event 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gooner
22 December 2013 15:57:41





Met Office WARNINGS FOR SOUTH WEST  ARE NOW AMBER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY....


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



For rain.   The warnings for wind, for some reason, have not yet been issued ......


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Maybe we are making too much of it?


Originally Posted by: Essan 


I dont think so going by the 12z gfs 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfs-0-48.png?12 wow 


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


P GIbbs keeps going on about rain.....................warnings for rain

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
22 December 2013 16:09:48





Met Office WARNINGS FOR SOUTH WEST  ARE NOW AMBER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY....


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



For rain.   The warnings for wind, for some reason, have not yet been issued ......


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Maybe we are making too much of it?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I dont think so going by the 12z gfs 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfs-0-48.png?12 wow 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


P GIbbs keeps going on about rain.....................warnings for rain

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 



Not too surprising when you see the NAE.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= 

And the Euro 4

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=rsum&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
22 December 2013 16:13:06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-126.png?12


Another bomb in coming

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
22 December 2013 16:22:45

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-162.png?12


Is that another low coming across the Atlantic

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


jondg14
22 December 2013 16:34:39


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-162.png?12


Is that another low coming across the Atlantic


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It is  but the progress is slower and pressure is rising to our North and East.


The Atlantic not looking as dominant on this run.

The Beast from the East
22 December 2013 16:50:39

a bit more undercutting and bingo. Quite a promising run


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Phil G
22 December 2013 16:52:09


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-162.png?12


Is that another low coming across the Atlantic


Originally Posted by: jondg14 


It is  but the progress is slower and pressure is rising to our North and East.


The Atlantic not looking as dominant on this run.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Yes the signal for a big pattern change seems to be gaining momentum.
Some very cold air now being modelled on charts out to the NE.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3002.png 
Charmhills
22 December 2013 16:52:15

The GFS 12z is very Atlantic dominated despite the blocking to far N/NE though less stormy FI.


Very wet though with some local flooding problems as systems slow down over us.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
jondg14
22 December 2013 16:52:16

It still ends up being a very unsettled run but there is plenty of potential for something different going into January. UKMO at 144h shows an Arctic high building nicely


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122212/UN144-21.GIF?22-17


The short term is not pretty for the whole of the UK


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122212/UW48-21.GIF?22-16


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122212/UW120-21.GIF?22-17

Quantum
22 December 2013 16:55:24

This is a fairly unusual situation. What we have is wierdly enough quite conductive conditions for major blocking - WAA in the arctic, deep high pressure forming over the pole, southern meandering jetstream. Everything else notwithstanding, you would expect these factors to result in major northern blocking down the line. However, and I find this almost funny, someone has thrown a huge spanner in the works - and of course its the canadians (2nd spanner if you count Justin). The mamoth cold pool over E canada is showing no signs of moving fast


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/22/basis00/namk/t850/13123012_2200.gif


At 192, you can see the remarkable -30C 850 isotherm over hudson bay


At 372 we say hello to the -35C 850 isotherm


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/22/basis00/namk/t850/14010700_2200.gif


Which is even further south and east (note on meteociel you will just see a black mess as the colours go off the scale)


The effect of this spine chillingly cold air being blown over the atlantic can only have one result. Massive cyclogenesis, and I'm sure we can blame, at least in part, the canadians for our xmas eve storm, and the one on the 27th too. And until this cold pool buggers off to the NW, we can kiss our chances of any blocking goodbye (bering high or no bering high); what we have to look forward to, instead, are more bombs (a real meterological term for rapidally developing low pressure) and with the cold pool if anything getting stronger, I wouldn't be suprised to see our 925mb storm on xmas eve bested at some point. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 17:07:54


This is a fairly unusual situation. What we have is wierdly enough quite conductive conditions for major blocking - WAA in the arctic, deep high pressure forming over the pole, southern meandering jetstream.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Add in the continued modelling of two areas of warming in the stratosphere, now more marked than on the 0z


Here at T+384: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


 


The warming on our side of the Pole meanders eastwards at the end but that still looks like a chart with some promise, I think?


The core of the cold PV has clearly weakened and been squeezed towards the Canadian Arctic.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
22 December 2013 17:10:39


This is a fairly unusual situation. What we have is wierdly enough quite conductive conditions for major blocking - WAA in the arctic, deep high pressure forming over the pole, southern meandering jetstream. Everything else notwithstanding, you would expect these factors to result in major northern blocking down the line. However, and I find this almost funny, someone has thrown a huge spanner in the works - and of course its the canadians (2nd spanner if you count Justin). The mamoth cold pool over E canada is showing no signs of moving fast


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/22/basis00/namk/t850/13123012_2200.gif


At 192, you can see the remarkable -30C 850 isotherm over hudson bay


At 372 we say hello to the -35C 850 isotherm


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/22/basis00/namk/t850/14010700_2200.gif


Which is even further south and east (note on meteociel you will just see a black mess as the colours go off the scale)


The effect of this spine chillingly cold air being blown over the atlantic can only have one result. Massive cyclogenesis, and I'm sure we can blame, at least in part, the canadians for our xmas eve storm, and the one on the 27th too. And until this cold pool buggers off to the NW, we can kiss our chances of any blocking goodbye (bering high or no bering high); what we have to look forward to, instead, are more bombs (a real meterological term for rapidally developing low pressure) and with the cold pool if anything getting stronger, I wouldn't be suprised to see our 925mb storm on xmas eve bested at some point. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's a chicken and egg thing. The cold air over eastern Canada is being effectively dragged there by these storms in their wake as they leave the Eastern Seaboard. It is what makes it such a tiresomely repetitive and stable pattern. Something needs to break the cycle. Like the Atlantic cooling down and reducing the temperature differential. We may have a long wait.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Polar Low
22 December 2013 17:11:00
Gooner
22 December 2013 17:15:16



This is a fairly unusual situation. What we have is wierdly enough quite conductive conditions for major blocking - WAA in the arctic, deep high pressure forming over the pole, southern meandering jetstream.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Add in the continued modelling of two areas of warming in the stratosphere, now more marked than on the 0z


Here at T+384: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


The warming on our side of the Pole meanders eastwards at the end but that still looks like a chart with some promise, I think?


The core of the cold PV has clearly weakened and been squeezed towards the Canadian Arctic.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Couldn't get your link to work GT


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


The warming has certainly increased

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
22 December 2013 17:15:51

Yes I like that t144 promise of maybe a signal at the pole and a bit more of dig down into Europe to come perhaps


 



It still ends up being a very unsettled run but there is plenty of potential for something different going into January. UKMO at 144h shows an Arctic high building nicely


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122212/UN144-21.GIF?22-17


The short term is not pretty for the whole of the UK


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122212/UW48-21.GIF?22-16


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122212/UW120-21.GIF?22-17


Originally Posted by: jondg14 

Polar Low
22 December 2013 17:27:40

hmm That does show promise energy is moving s/e this time look whos poking her nose in


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1


 


 




This is a fairly unusual situation. What we have is wierdly enough quite conductive conditions for major blocking - WAA in the arctic, deep high pressure forming over the pole, southern meandering jetstream. Everything else notwithstanding, you would expect these factors to result in major northern blocking down the line. However, and I find this almost funny, someone has thrown a huge spanner in the works - and of course its the canadians (2nd spanner if you count Justin). The mamoth cold pool over E canada is showing no signs of moving fast


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/22/basis00/namk/t850/13123012_2200.gif


At 192, you can see the remarkable -30C 850 isotherm over hudson bay


At 372 we say hello to the -35C 850 isotherm


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/22/basis00/namk/t850/14010700_2200.gif


Which is even further south and east (note on meteociel you will just see a black mess as the colours go off the scale)


The effect of this spine chillingly cold air being blown over the atlantic can only have one result. Massive cyclogenesis, and I'm sure we can blame, at least in part, the canadians for our xmas eve storm, and the one on the 27th too. And until this cold pool buggers off to the NW, we can kiss our chances of any blocking goodbye (bering high or no bering high); what we have to look forward to, instead, are more bombs (a real meterological term for rapidally developing low pressure) and with the cold pool if anything getting stronger, I wouldn't be suprised to see our 925mb storm on xmas eve bested at some point. 


Originally Posted by: RobN 


It's a chicken and egg thing. The cold air over eastern Canada is being effectively dragged there by these storms in their wake as they leave the Eastern Seaboard. It is what makes it such a tiresomely repetitive and stable pattern. Something needs to break the cycle. Like the Atlantic cooling down and reducing the temperature differential. We may have a long wait.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 17:29:39




This is a fairly unusual situation. What we have is wierdly enough quite conductive conditions for major blocking - WAA in the arctic, deep high pressure forming over the pole, southern meandering jetstream.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Add in the continued modelling of two areas of warming in the stratosphere, now more marked than on the 0z


Here at T+384: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


The warming on our side of the Pole meanders eastwards at the end but that still looks like a chart with some promise, I think?


The core of the cold PV has clearly weakened and been squeezed towards the Canadian Arctic.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Couldn't get your link to work GT


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


The warming has certainly increased


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Fixed that, thanks.  How odd.


Yes, slowly but steadily.  It's not a 'SSW' event by any means but it may still be influential


There's quite a nice animation of the forecast at 30hPa here (as opposed to the 10hPa shown on GFS)


http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere;sess=


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
22 December 2013 18:45:11

What's fustrating is that by t90, pressure begins to fall over the Med & central Europe


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-90.png?12?12


This continues for another 48 hours, and one would hope the storm that hits us on Friday would follow the ESE trajectory it had been following, and on into Europe,


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Yet it halts over the UK, fills a bit, then scoots NE'wards. Meanwhile, pressure rises over central Europe/the Med, slamming the door on the possibility of the blocking that's building way to our north being able to influence us.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12


 


I hate our climate. It seems that almost always the 'weather gods' find a way to scupper a potential decent set-up


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
22 December 2013 19:16:41


What's fustrating is that by t90, pressure begins to fall over the Med & central Europe


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-90.png?12?12


This continues for another 48 hours, and one would hope the storm that hits us on Friday would follow the ESE trajectory it had been following, and on into Europe,


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Yet it halts over the UK, fills a bit, then scoots NE'wards. Meanwhile, pressure rises over central Europe/the Med, slamming the door on the possibility of the blocking that's building way to our north being able to influence us.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12


 


I hate our climate. It seems that almost always the 'weather gods' find a way to scupper a potential decent set-up


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


The interesting thing is, that over the longer term the jet stream trends further and further south. With that cold pool in E canada we won't get blocking, however if the jet gets far enough south, things could actually turn pretty cold and the winds even backing to the NE and our weather may even turn slightly icelandic. But cold zonality is really the best on offer. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
22 December 2013 19:19:02


What's fustrating is that by t90, pressure begins to fall over the Med & central Europe


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-90.png?12?12


This continues for another 48 hours, and one would hope the storm that hits us on Friday would follow the ESE trajectory it had been following, and on into Europe,


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Yet it halts over the UK, fills a bit, then scoots NE'wards. Meanwhile, pressure rises over central Europe/the Med, slamming the door on the possibility of the blocking that's building way to our north being able to influence us.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12


 


I hate our climate. It seems that almost always the 'weather gods' find a way to scupper a potential decent set-up


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Think we will have quite a wait , it might be worth it though

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
22 December 2013 19:33:56
I'm cautiously optimistic with the likes of this in FI.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png 

Allowing for the usual delays, I think by mid January we could see a decent wintry spell. With the very cold air over N America and the very deep lows in the Atlantic it just feels like an extremely cold air mass could come our way before winter is out.

But maybe that's because I've just had a couple of glasses of the old vino collapso...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 19:39:56

What's fustrating is that by t90, pressure begins to fall over the Med & central Europe


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-90.png?12?12


This continues for another 48 hours, and one would hope the storm that hits us on Friday would follow the ESE trajectory it had been following, and on into Europe,


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


Yet it halts over the UK, fills a bit, then scoots NE'wards. Meanwhile, pressure rises over central Europe/the Med, slamming the door on the possibility of the blocking that's building way to our north being able to influence us.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122212/gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12


 


I hate our climate. It seems that almost always the 'weather gods' find a way to scupper a potential decent set-up

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



The low pressure in the Med is caused by cyclogenesis induced by the plunge of cold air south from tomorrow's storm. It isn't indicative of any change in the main pattern, unfortunately - just gets cut off and isolated as the jet surges back north again.

The next LP is actually coming east not south-east - and the track in this se-up often spins them NE and then north as they start to fill.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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