Hi everyone. Here is the latest report on the Midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 23rd 2013.
All models show Low pressure deepening explosively over the Atlantic as it winds up to be West of Scotland later today pushing very strong winds, gale, severe gale or even storm force winds into the NW later. In addition a spell of persistent and heavy rain extends NE across England and Wales this morning and on to other areas soon after. Rain will be heavy and prolonged with some flooding issues possible in the South and SW through the day. Later on clearer, colder and more showery weather will spread across Northern and Western areas reaching the SE on Christmas Eve with a windy and showery day with some showers heavy with hail, thunder and sleet or snow over the hills. On Christmas Day and Boxing Day the weather will become quieter with showers more likely towards Southern and Western coasts and hills where they may be wintry and heavy in places. Some inland parts may stay dry and bright with some weak winter sunshine especially in the East.
GFS then shows another powerful storm sweeping gales and heavy rain NE again over the end of the week and next weekend. Further flooding and structural damage is possible with wintry showers over Northern hills once the main frontal activity has passed. The rest of the run tonight indicates further rather windy and wet weather at times as further depressions sweep wind and rain followed by showers across the UK with temperatures close to average at first but becoming rather colder from the NW later.
UKMO early next Sunday shows a strong WNW wind delivering sunshine and showers ahead of a ridge of High pressure drying things up briefly later in the day, in turn followed by another Atlantic depression to begin next week.
GEM today keeps the train of Low pressure from Scandinavia to Canada going late next weekend and into the New Year week with rain at times on a blustery and strong West or SW wind though not as stormy as recently.
NAVGEM closes next week and weekend off with plenty more rain at times, some heavy as Low pressure remains well established over the Atlantic to Northern Europe. Winds will slowly become less strong but still reaching gale force at times as the West or SW flow over the UK remains dominant.
ECM today maintains unsettled weather on the run up to the New Year with Low pressure trundling across the Atlantic. However, late in the period pressure rises from the South over the Atlantic and it looks possible that the procession of low pressure will end soon after the New Year with maybe somewhat colder and drier conditions as pressure rises over the UK under a Northerly towards the end of next week.
The GFS Ensembles for the first time trend down towards the end of the output with some members going into rather colder weather as we move into the New Year, especially the Control run. There are still some windy and rainy options on the table too, including the operational but overall things may become rather drier and brighter into the New Year with some frosts possible at least for a time.
The Jet Stream continues it's slow movement South to blow East to the South of the UK over the Christmas period. It's position then sets up a pattern much less biased towards SW to NE motion taking it on a more of a West to East track with it's position much further South over Continental Europe in Week 2.
In Summary the weather remains distinctly unsettled and potentially stormy over the next week with a Christmas lull in the stormy activity over Christmas and Boxing Day though still with showers, wintry on hills. With some colder air over Britain at times up to the New Year the heavier showers could lead to some wintry weather over the hills almost anywhere but most likely over the North. Longer term the risk of stormy weather recedes but the pattern remains largely unsettled as shallower Lows and fronts continue crossing the UK into the New Year though there are some small changes indicated this morning which could lead to a pattern change soon after the end of this morning's output to something rather colder and drier.
Edited by user
23 December 2013 09:21:25
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset