ECM taken a step backwards this morning. No stopping the Atlantic train. GEM and GFS more keen to disrupt the pv

Yes, far more interesting and worrying things going weather wise the next few days but we still look as far away from any HLB as we did last week

PV is just too strong and too well organised

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122300/gfs-0-36.png?0

You can't help feeling that once this clears off parts of the North will be left without power

Hi everyone. Here is the latest report on the Midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 23rd 2013.

All models show Low pressure deepening explosively over the Atlantic as it winds up to be West of Scotland later today pushing very strong winds, gale, severe gale or even storm force winds into the NW later. In addition a spell of persistent and heavy rain extends NE across England and Wales this morning and on to other areas soon after. Rain will be heavy and prolonged with some flooding issues possible in the South and SW through the day. Later on clearer, colder and more showery weather will spread across Northern and Western areas reaching the SE on Christmas Eve with a windy and showery day with some showers heavy with hail, thunder and sleet or snow over the hills. On Christmas Day and Boxing Day the weather will become quieter with showers more likely towards Southern and Western coasts and hills where they may be wintry and heavy in places. Some inland parts may stay dry and bright with some weak winter sunshine especially in the East.

GFS then shows another powerful storm sweeping gales and heavy rain NE again over the end of the week and next weekend. Further flooding and structural damage is possible with wintry showers over Northern hills once the main frontal activity has passed. The rest of the run tonight indicates further rather windy and wet weather at times as further depressions sweep wind and rain followed by showers across the UK with temperatures close to average at first but becoming rather colder from the NW later.

UKMO early next Sunday shows a strong WNW wind delivering sunshine and showers ahead of a ridge of High pressure drying things up briefly later in the day, in turn followed by another Atlantic depression to begin next week.

GEM today keeps the train of Low pressure from Scandinavia to Canada going late next weekend and into the New Year week with rain at times on a blustery and strong West or SW wind though not as stormy as recently.

NAVGEM closes next week and weekend off with plenty more rain at times, some heavy as Low pressure remains well established over the Atlantic to Northern Europe. Winds will slowly become less strong but still reaching gale force at times as the West or SW flow over the UK remains dominant.

ECM today maintains unsettled weather on the run up to the New Year with Low pressure trundling across the Atlantic. However, late in the period pressure rises from the South over the Atlantic and it looks possible that the procession of low pressure will end soon after the New Year with maybe somewhat colder and drier conditions as pressure rises over the UK under a Northerly towards the end of next week.

The GFS Ensembles for the first time trend down towards the end of the output with some members going into rather colder weather as we move into the New Year, especially the Control run. There are still some windy and rainy options on the table too, including the operational but overall things may become rather drier and brighter into the New Year with some frosts possible at least for a time.

The Jet Stream continues it's slow movement South to blow East to the South of the UK over the Christmas period. It's position then sets up a pattern much less biased towards SW to NE motion taking it on a more of a West to East track with it's position much further South over Continental Europe in Week 2.

In Summary the weather remains distinctly unsettled and potentially stormy over the next week with a Christmas lull in the stormy activity over Christmas and Boxing Day though still with showers, wintry on hills. With some colder air over Britain at times up to the New Year the heavier showers could lead to some wintry weather over the hills almost anywhere but most likely over the North. Longer term the risk of stormy weather recedes but the pattern remains largely unsettled as shallower Lows and fronts continue crossing the UK into the New Year though there are some small changes indicated this morning which could lead to a pattern change soon after the end of this morning's output to something rather colder and drier.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-300.png?0

The control looks better later on

Indeed - the nearcore wind field will generate 80mph+gusts in the far N of NI and far NW Scotland during Xmas Eve, which will likely cause damage (again).

Of greater concern, if that is possible wth the approaching storm today, is FRIDAY for a large area of the UK.

I would agree with that Neil, Friday's system does seem to be being modelled with a consistently more southerly vector than today's storm, with southern areas again in the firing line.

 Just a mirage! Gone this morning to be replaced by above average across Russia

ol, but the MetO rely on the ECM32 for guidance and we all know just how woeful that is past 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Do we? You have access to it in its entirety then, not just second- or third-hand comments from those who do? FWIW, the ECM-32 has been pretty good over the past month or so. Yes, it's shown the odd Scandi High which didn't come off - but that's just the control run. 85% or so of the control runs showed unsettled, at times very unsettled and generally mild conditions (average alternating with mild) prevailing through December and into the first week of January and to all intents and purposes that's what we've had / will be getting. That's first-hand info. The second-hand info via Ian Ferguson over on NW, who knows what he's on about, is that the rest of the suite has shown a similarly unsettled outlook - with the Scandinavian High as shown on some of the controls never being supported by the majority of members. As far as the ECM-32 is concerned then yes, the first week or so of January is a write-off in terms of widespread deep cold. There will be the odd colder outlier, as with GEFS, but as yet the bulk of members aren't buying it. If and when a change to colder conditions occurs in ECM-32, you'll hear about it from Ian Ferguson as well as the written forecasts on the Met Office page.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Errr, you dont need to have access to its full entirety as the conclusions are there for all to read, and one month of calling the correct signal doesn't make it anymore reliable, as the previous month it was calling for height rises to our NE. In fact if we look at its performance over the last 12 months you'll find that what I'm actually referring to is actually factual, IMO it's no better than seaweed and tea leaves for anything post 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Just serves to reinforce the point that Matty has made many times about how difficult it is, if not nigh-on impossible, to issue a long-range forecast for this country with any confidence whatsoever. It is purely educated guesswork IMO.

ol, but the MetO rely on the ECM32 for guidance and we all know just how woeful that is past 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Do we? You have access to it in its entirety then, not just second- or third-hand comments from those who do? FWIW, the ECM-32 has been pretty good over the past month or so. Yes, it's shown the odd Scandi High which didn't come off - but that's just the control run. 85% or so of the control runs showed unsettled, at times very unsettled and generally mild conditions (average alternating with mild) prevailing through December and into the first week of January and to all intents and purposes that's what we've had / will be getting. That's first-hand info. The second-hand info via Ian Ferguson over on NW, who knows what he's on about, is that the rest of the suite has shown a similarly unsettled outlook - with the Scandinavian High as shown on some of the controls never being supported by the majority of members. As far as the ECM-32 is concerned then yes, the first week or so of January is a write-off in terms of widespread deep cold. There will be the odd colder outlier, as with GEFS, but as yet the bulk of members aren't buying it. If and when a change to colder conditions occurs in ECM-32, you'll hear about it from Ian Ferguson as well as the written forecasts on the Met Office page.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Errr, you dont need to have access to its full entirety as the conclusions are there for all to read, and one month of calling the correct signal doesn't make it anymore reliable, as the previous month it was calling for height rises to our NE. In fact if we look at its performance over the last 12 months you'll find that what I'm actually referring to is actually factual, IMO it's no better than seaweed and tea leaves for anything post 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Errr ... you do need access to the original output, because otherwise the "conclusions there for all to read" are just somebody's interpretation: worthless if you can't assess the data from which those conclusions are drawn

E.g., how often have height rises to the north been excitedly tweeted by some of those with access to the ECM32 output, when it turns out they don't understand the difference between a height anomaly and absolute pressure? (A positive height anomaly over Iceland could still be an area of low pressure.)