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mbradshaw
22 December 2013 18:02:11


NOAA charts showing hurricane force winds


http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=199223


 


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


Super (sarcasm). Not sure how long my anemometers (and the mast) are going to last at this rate. I did buy two spares (they are dirt cheap thankfully) the other day in anticipation....


I'll be keeping an eye on tomorrows output, as the centre of the low is close by. A small change pushing it further north west could make quite a big difference to speeds. 


SWtay safe everyone, and keep an eye on the MO warnings.

Essan
22 December 2013 18:31:26


Is there any storm surge associated with this upcoming period.  I seem to remember the one that hit the east coast being blamed on the pressure being so low.  With the pressure lower on this one, is it likely to affect west coast in same way as before?


 http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/301549/article_img.jpg


Oban


Originally Posted by: glenogle 



Shouldn't be too bad - there's not a spring tide, and the west coast doesn't sufferer the funelling affect down the the North Sea that the east does.   Nonetheless, I'd expect tides higher than would otherwise be expected.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Bow Echo
22 December 2013 18:44:17

My goodness. just been looking on radar24 at some of the speeds of aircraft coming of the eatern seaboard. 660kts or about 755 mph. guess they are using the superjet to save a bit of fuel and time!! Thats one roaring jetstream! http://www.flightradar24.com/ACA868


Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Polar Low
22 December 2013 19:04:32

first warning out for ligtning from e storm centre


http://www.estofex.org/


 

Polar Low
22 December 2013 19:08:59

275 mph Jet C F says the fastest his seen


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25485532


 

Bow Echo
22 December 2013 19:18:13


first warning out for ligtning from e storm centre


http://www.estofex.org/


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Surely thats been out since 7 am this morning? I think they will update it shortly.


 


Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Polar Low
22 December 2013 19:22:50

I did look earlier but could not find nowt from them but yes I agree the time thing.




first warning out for ligtning from e storm centre


http://www.estofex.org/


 


Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 


Surely thats been out since 7 am this morning? I think they will update it shortly.


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

moabutah
22 December 2013 19:25:47
When I was on the Isle of Rum during May 2012 this family moved their static onto their newly acquired croft. They are still in the caravan but only just as this autumn's storms have really battered them. They have to have an emergency bag that they can grab if the caravan start disintegrating. Good luck to them for the upcoming storm.

http://wondering-wanderers.blogspot.co.uk/ 
Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 19:27:28

Is there any storm surge associated with this upcoming period.  I seem to remember the one that hit the east coast being blamed on the pressure being so low.  With the pressure lower on this one, is it likely to affect west coast in same way as before?


 http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/301549/article_img.jpg


Oban

Originally Posted by: glenogle 



That storm surge was a combination of factors: the low pressure but more importantly the Spring tide and the fact that the NW winds drove the surge down the North Sea, which narrows as you go south.

Aside from the pressure, none of the factors applies for tomorrow/Tuesday.

Still plenty to be concerned about from wind and rain.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballogie
22 December 2013 20:14:09

Strewth!  What a night to be landing at ABZ on the last flight north before Xmas


 


tony73
22 December 2013 20:24:59
South coastal water hights are forecast MEDIUM on 23/24 ( max high ), then dropping over the next Week, due to the Moon phase. Bulldozers have been busy at several vulnerable points today, building up the defences, I suspect in anticipation of a storm surge.

Tidal predictions are computed for average barometric pressure. The average barometric
pressure for the United Kingdom varies between 1016mb along the south coast of the U.K. to
1011mb in the north of Scotland. A difference from the average of 1mb can cause a difference in
height of about 0.01 metre. Low pressure will tend to raise sea level and high pressure will tend
to depress it. The water level does not, however, adjust itself immediately to a change of
pressure, it responds to the average change in pressure over a considerable area.
Changes in level due to barometric pressure seldom exceed 0.3 metres but, when mean sea level
is raised or lowered by strong winds or by storm surges, this effect can be important

Can anyone confirm if the flood barriers in Portsmouth have been raised in the old town ?.
nouska
22 December 2013 20:25:34

When I was on the Isle of Rum during May 2012 this family moved their static onto their newly acquired croft. They are still in the caravan but only just as this autumn's storms have really battered them. They have to have an emergency bag that they can grab if the caravan start disintegrating. Good luck to them for the upcoming storm.

Originally Posted by: moabutah 

">http://wondering-wanderers.blogspot.co.uk/


Tsk, tsk ... is this the modern version of crofting, write a blog and ask for donations ...how times and hardships have an altered concept.

glenogle
22 December 2013 20:33:55

Is there any storm surge associated with this upcoming period.  I seem to remember the one that hit the east coast being blamed on the pressure being so low.  With the pressure lower on this one, is it likely to affect west coast in same way as before?


 http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/301549/article_img.jpg


Oban

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



That storm surge was a combination of factors: the low pressure but more importantly the Spring tide and the fact that the NW winds drove the surge down the North Sea, which narrows as you go south.

Aside from the pressure, none of the factors applies for tomorrow/Tuesday.

Still plenty to be concerned about from wind and rain.

Originally Posted by: glenogle 



The flooding in the photo was west coast, although I hadn't checked the upcoming tide situation


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m aslĀ 
Polar Low
22 December 2013 20:37:57

latest shipping forecast think thats the right one


http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03m38wy


 

Polar Low
22 December 2013 20:45:43

already windy in parts not sure if thats surface speed or how many metres up? perhaps someone can advise


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.12,53.66,3000


 click anywhere on map


 

Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 22:28:06


Is there any storm surge associated with this upcoming period.  I seem to remember the one that hit the east coast being blamed on the pressure being so low.  With the pressure lower on this one, is it likely to affect west coast in same way as before?


 http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/301549/article_img.jpg


Oban


Originally Posted by: glenogle 



That storm surge was a combination of factors: the low pressure but more importantly the Spring tide and the fact that the NW winds drove the surge down the North Sea, which narrows as you go south.

Aside from the pressure, none of the factors applies for tomorrow/Tuesday.

Still plenty to be concerned about from wind and rain.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The flooding in the photo was west coast, although I hadn't checked the upcoming tide situation

Originally Posted by: glenogle 


Sorry, I missed the word 'Oban'


I do recall News items from North Wales as well, so clearly it wasn't only the East coast - but I think that's where the worst of it hit.


As you say, I imagine it's about the tide. 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


JoeShmoe99
22 December 2013 22:28:19
The 18z is actually worse, tighter isobars, some parts are going to get a hammering
RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
22 December 2013 22:51:55

As there are no warnings for North Midlands upwards now...are the winds not due to cause problems now?


Winter 23/24 in Nantwich
Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)



Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3
Days Snow Lying: 1
Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)
Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21
Days Snow Lying: 8
Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)
Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5
Days Snow Lying: 2
Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6
Days Snow Lying: 6
Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27
Days Snow Lying: 24
Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)
some faraway beach
22 December 2013 23:07:35

I'm sure that during the last few months CFS has generated this sort of chart for the Christmas period on several occasions. Still a shock to see it modelled just 5 days away, and with an intensity even CFS wouldn't have dared spew out:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Gandalf The White
23 December 2013 00:25:14


As there are no warnings for North Midlands upwards now...are the winds not due to cause problems now?


Originally Posted by: RobR 


That's quite surprising given what the models are showing.  The best you can say at the moment is that north Midlands and parts of northern England get less of the intensity and duration of wind and rain on Monday


18z picture for wind gusts:


Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/18-289UK.GIF?22-18


3pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/21-289UK.GIF?22-18


6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/24-289UK.GIF?22-18


The west and north get hit on Xmas Eve:


9am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/39-289UK.GIF?22-18


Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/42-289UK.GIF?22-18


Rainfall totals to midnight Xmas Day from GFS 18z:


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/54-777UK.GIF?22-18


 


NAE picture to 6pm Xmas Eve: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/22/basis18/ukuk/rsum/13122418_2218.gif


 


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Whether Idle
23 December 2013 06:20:14


 The 0z NAE has down-graded the risk of flooding for many - the purples (>50mm) are less extensive.


The GFS hi res has up -graded the winds though for the s coast, Brighton in particular looks vulnerable around midnight:


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Essan
23 December 2013 07:27:58


As there are no warnings for North Midlands upwards now...are the winds not due to cause problems now?


Originally Posted by: RobR 



Not compared with what you'll get on Friday


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
mbradshaw
23 December 2013 07:29:09

A slight delay in tomorrows system for us, but still looking like NW Scotland is going to be the worst place in the UK to be located in terms of high wind speeds. Wind speeds of 80mph tomorrow but >70mph right though into midday Christmas day. Low looks to be around 940hPa and MO warning for us is still taking about speeds of 80-90mph in the north west, 70mph widely for Scotland and parts of NI and Storm force winds in the islands. 


I see the yellow gale warning for the south of England says just about nothing in terms of speed - just the words "gales"....must be a bit unsure of the exact details down there. Assume it will be made a bit clearer through today....


But Friday's system looks further south at least initially, so some respite for us fingers crossed.


Take care in the wind and rain folks, it is going to get bumpy.

CornishBlizzard
23 December 2013 07:39:26
Already started here. Wind roaring around the house and heavy rain.

Andrew
Par
Cornwall
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