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Rob K
23 December 2013 19:31:10
A forlorn sight at Waterloo. Almost all departure boards reading DELAYED. Nothing heading out on the Basingstoke line so I have just got on a train towards Reading. Not too much further to get home from Wokingham instead. Rain had actually eased off and winds were a bit calmer when I left work at 6.45. The lull before the stronger winds tonight.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
mbradshaw
23 December 2013 19:32:36




a storm like we are currently having in the south is always going to seem worse and ultimately more destructive than say a similiar or worse storm in somewhere like n. w scotland. some of my relations used to live  up near stoer in n.w scotland and the houses were obviously built with more thought to severe gales , i.e.  sited in sheltered dips and solidly constructed. having said that there were also some mobile homes which would blow away if they were not roped and wired down to large rocks.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


That is true, although our transport and power networks are equally as vulnerable and much harder to fix after the event due to the inaccessible and huge distances involved.


Originally Posted by: mbradshaw 



There are more people in London than the whole of Scotland - so a storm affecting London is 'bigger' than one affecting everyone from Lerwick to Annan.   If you add in the Home Counties then it's 'bigger' than one affecting everyone north of Manchester.

And of course, the SE has a lot more trees alongsie roads, railways and homes.  So the impact is always going to be greater.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


I don't agree Essan.


 

Gandalf The White
23 December 2013 19:41:45


All eyes on the frontal wave now. Big area of rain getting into the south-west in association with this feature.


Worst places to be later appear to run along the south coast from East Hampshire to Kent but disruption could be pretty widespread across the south-east generally.


 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Hi Dave, trust you're surviving the weather.


The satellite shows the next disturbance developing and moving in.  If anyone wants to see the system developing over the last 24 hours I can thoroughly recommend running the sequence on this link.


http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html


Absolutely perfect illustration of a developing low pressure system and the secondary feature

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2013 19:41:47





a storm like we are currently having in the south is always going to seem worse and ultimately more destructive than say a similiar or worse storm in somewhere like n. w scotland. some of my relations used to live  up near stoer in n.w scotland and the houses were obviously built with more thought to severe gales , i.e.  sited in sheltered dips and solidly constructed. having said that there were also some mobile homes which would blow away if they were not roped and wired down to large rocks.


Originally Posted by: mbradshaw 


That is true, although our transport and power networks are equally as vulnerable and much harder to fix after the event due to the inaccessible and huge distances involved.


Originally Posted by: Essan 



There are more people in London than the whole of Scotland - so a storm affecting London is 'bigger' than one affecting everyone from Lerwick to Annan.   If you add in the Home Counties then it's 'bigger' than one affecting everyone north of Manchester.

And of course, the SE has a lot more trees alongsie roads, railways and homes.  So the impact is always going to be greater.


Originally Posted by: mbradshaw 


I don't agree Essan.


 


Originally Posted by: bledur 

Well. if Escape to Country are correct, Surrey has more trees than any other county in the UK.

Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
mbradshaw
23 December 2013 19:45:07






a storm like we are currently having in the south is always going to seem worse and ultimately more destructive than say a similiar or worse storm in somewhere like n. w scotland. some of my relations used to live  up near stoer in n.w scotland and the houses were obviously built with more thought to severe gales , i.e.  sited in sheltered dips and solidly constructed. having said that there were also some mobile homes which would blow away if they were not roped and wired down to large rocks.


Originally Posted by: POD 


That is true, although our transport and power networks are equally as vulnerable and much harder to fix after the event due to the inaccessible and huge distances involved.


Originally Posted by: mbradshaw 



There are more people in London than the whole of Scotland - so a storm affecting London is 'bigger' than one affecting everyone from Lerwick to Annan.   If you add in the Home Counties then it's 'bigger' than one affecting everyone north of Manchester.

And of course, the SE has a lot more trees alongsie roads, railways and homes.  So the impact is always going to be greater.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


I don't agree Essan.


 


Originally Posted by: mbradshaw 

Well. if Escape to Country are correct, Surrey has more trees than any other county in the UK.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Indeed it does....I used to live in Surrey in a past life 

bledur
23 December 2013 19:47:50

Surrey has more trees than any other county in the UK.


 


 or maybe not after tonightBigGrin

llamedos
23 December 2013 19:55:51





Using my source of information the 12z GFS has upgraded things a tad.


The previous highest progged of a sustained 47mph wind has now become a 49mph sustained southerly at 00z.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD


FWIW and as a comparison, the St Jude Storm on 28th October peaked at a SW 43mph sustained.


This is going to be bad.


 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 



St Jude was just a over hyped autumn gale.

52mph sustained winds at Solent for past couple hours.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/solent_latest_weather.html


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Not sure about that to be fair, two or three people killed if I remember rightly and plenty of trees down.


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Yes, I agree 100%. I found that sort of comment irritating and disrespectful at the time and it doesn't improve with the passage of time.


 


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Wholly agree. This sort of nonsense is what has spoiled some fascinating threads on here over the years. There's always one who has to make it sadly. I'm suprised the regionalistic green-eyed monster hasn't reared its ugly head....yet....


Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Quite a ridiculous comment that really wasn't worthy of a response, which is why it didn't get one from me  when I first saw it  

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2013 19:57:32

the winds of the afternoon have died down here noticably. Although my lashed up annometer has blown down now.


 


https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
Jive Buddy
23 December 2013 20:00:47

Just one constant roar here now. Somewhere in the region of 40mph sustained.


KFRS already had 40 weather related calls.

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2013 20:03:54


Just one constant roar here now.


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


 


Thanet zoo blown over?!


 



 


 

https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
NickR
23 December 2013 20:04:20


Just one constant roar here now. Somewhere in the region of 40mph sustained.


KFRS already had 40 weather related calls.


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


What do you work as?


I'm keeping up with news from Kent as folks are driving up here from there tomorrow. A2 closed in both directions due to downed power cables atm.. hope they're cleared by the morning!

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
schmee
23 December 2013 20:06:10
Trees down as already noted,floods and closed roads rain hard still.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Devon snow
23 December 2013 20:07:54

Just a small amount of rain heading up this way!


 

Chepstow 110m
Rob K
23 December 2013 20:21:00
Apols if this has been posted: BIG tree down on a house in Earlswood

http://www.surreymirror.co.uk/STORM-PICTURES-tree-falls-house-Earlswood/story-20358581-detail/story.html 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jonesy
23 December 2013 20:35:35

Apols if this has been posted: BIG tree down on a house in Earlswood

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.surreymirror.co.uk/STORM-PICTURES-tree-falls-house-Earlswood/story-20358581-detail/story.html


Looks like a Conifer, part of the Evergreen family, fairly shallow rooted, hopefully wouldn't of done too much damage because of the foilage.

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
The Beast from the East
23 December 2013 20:38:49
And still no Red warning.

Garage flooded for the first time since July 2007 event
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Essan
23 December 2013 20:41:49

And still no Red warning.

Garage flooded for the first time since July 2007 event

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Well too late to issue a red warning for you now

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Whether Idle
23 December 2013 20:42:37


These charts from the NMM model show nicely how the winds will build in the SE over the next few hours. The first chart is 20z and the last chart 03z. Gusts up to 80mph in coastal areas and also inland over the far SE. Kent and East Sussex especially will be in the firing line by midnight.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-8-1.png?23-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-9-1.png?23-17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-10-1.png?23-17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-11-1.png?23-17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-12-1.png?23-17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-13-1.png?23-17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-14-1.png?23-17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122312/nmm-11-15-1.png?23-17


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Yeah, looks about right.  Things had "calmed down" a smidgen compared to around teatime (down to 70 mph gusts from 74mph) but I detect that things are starting to pick up again.  A few clonks and clanks outside thus far...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
stophe
23 December 2013 20:57:33
Had 8mm from the first round of rain. Looking at the latest rainfall radar plenty more to come.
Girthmeister
23 December 2013 21:02:22
Yep, picked up considerably in the last 20 minutes, lights flickering again...
Global Warming
23 December 2013 21:03:23

Meanwhile the latest fax chart shows Friday's storm about 5mb deeper by 12z on Boxing Day compared to yesterday evening's run.


12z chart for 26/12 from 12z run yesterday shows the storm centre at about 966mb


http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+96.gif


12z chart for 26/12 from 12z run today shows centre probably around 961mb


http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+72.gif


Compare that to today's low which was at 984mb at 0z further east than the low on the charts above


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2013/brack/bracka20131223.gif


Friday's low is currently expected to stop deepening at an earlier stage than our current low but nonetheless still has the potential to be a very major storm indeed.

Whether Idle
23 December 2013 21:06:38

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=windspitzen&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=euro&SORT=3&UD=0


Useful link.  Shows today's maximum gusts thus far.  The top 4 are mountain/ mountain valley  stations like Cairngorm and Dun Fell; the lowland stations are currently headed by Langdon Bay, 74mph.  I expect that to be superceded by 11pm and by 1am we may have something in excess of 84mph?

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Global Warming
23 December 2013 21:07:08

Yep, picked up considerably in the last 20 minutes, lights flickering again...

Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


Yes significant increase in wind speed here too since 2030.


Pressure dropping very quickly as well. The GFS chart for 21z suggests my pressure reading should currently be about 982mb
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122312/9-515UK.GIF?23-12


It is actually currently 980.2mb and dropping like a stone

warrenb
23 December 2013 21:12:41
Gusts really picking up now
Tonbridge 45m 
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