Well put

Btw I'm also stuffed and can't move(apart from typing)

Give me some credit, we did at least get a cold snap out of it. And a quiter atlantic did help promote at least some cold towards the british isles. But no, I do not think a cold snap is anywhere near our doorstep; even taken at face value we are still looking into the low res part of the GFS. The blocking indicated by the ECM is weak, and has very little chance of becoming prominent while we still have that cyclone factory over canada. Perhaps things may change by the 2nd week of january, but I would be amazed if we get cold before then. 

This reminds me in some ways of Xmas week last year when many people were getting increasingly desperate for some dry weather in view of the seemingly endless rain we were getting at that time, which all came at the end of an exceptionally wet year. Having said all that I can't recall any instances of high winds with any of the LP systems that crossed over the British Isles this time last year.

I also recall that last Christmas, there were some subtle hints appearing in the FI range of the model runs of a change occuring in the weather once we had reached the end of the last festive season. It was difficult to know at the time what kind of a change it would be, but by early January this year it was fairly clear IIRC that the zonal weather that dominated the end of last year was about to come to an end. Let's hope that we soon see an end to this current wild spell.

Of course it depends what people call a cold snap in terms of temps and longevity?

Yes, but I don't think thats the sort of detail thats resolvable at 240h, and the most natural course would be directly eastward imo atm. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122518/gfsnh-0-42.png?18

Rough again for the North

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122518/gfsnh-0-300.png?18

GFS again heading in the right direction ...........................for cold fans

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122518/gfsnh-0-384.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122518/gfsnh-1-384.png?18

I'm not saying it always does, but cold uppers over E canada certainly doesn't help. And they are unusually cold for the time of year aswell, and right in the vincinity of the atlantic. In '63 in January the 850hpa temps NW of newfoundland were hovering at or just below -5C, at the end of the GFS high res we have uppers in the same place a good 30C lower. Its a chicken and egg situation yes, when blocking starts to happen uppers in that part of the world might lift up. But none of the models are showing any sign of that. The atlantic still looks pretty active. 

Still only very sketchy signs of anything that will break us out of the westerly train.
ENS as suspecting trending cooler with time but still 'zonal'.

Good morning everyone. Here is the Boxing Day morning report on what to expect as predicted by the midnight outputs of NWP for today Thursday December 26th 2013.

All models show a weak ridge crossing East today with a new deepening depression crossing the Atlantic towards NW Britain tonight and tomorrow carrying thick cloud, rain and severe gales across the UK. The winds look likely to be less severe across Southern Britain though this time round. By tomorrow morning a cold front crosses quickly East bringing all of the UK under a strong and showery Westerly flow with this weather lasting well into the weekend. On Sunday a weak ridge crosses East damping down the showers ahead of the next series of troughs with rain and strong winds returning later on Sunday and into Monday. Temperatures will range from average levels in the South and a little below in the North where snow may fall from the showers on the hills at times.

GFS then shows the last few days of 2013 with Low pressure out to the NW with rain at times, especially towards the North and West before clearer showery weather turns up for New Years Day itself with more of a Westerly breeze. Into the first week of 2014 and the weather remains very unsettled and rather colder as depressions take on a more SE track across the UK enhancing the colder element on the rear of each depression and allowing snowfall to reach lower levels at times in among the continuing large amounts of rainfall.

UKMO closes it's Boxing Day morning run with Low pressure well established South of Iceland on New Years Day with a broad SW flow with rain at times carried on troughs moving NE on a strong SW wind. It would feel relatively mild, especially in the South.

GEM also continues very unsettled weather into the first week of 2014 though the influence of High pressure to the South and SE is drawing nearer with the emphasis of the very heaviest of the rain shifting more towards NW Britain later with all areas feeling rather milder temperatures at times.

NAVGEM enters 2014 showing a depression crossing East over Southern Britain with chilly and showery conditions with a longer spell of rain crossing East on New Years Day.

ECM today shows an unsettled start to 2014 with rain at times followed by chilly and showery conditions for a day or two in the first week. At the end of the run High pressure from the SW reaches Southern Britain for a time with frost and fog possibilities in a quiet and dry spell here with an attached ridge drying things up in the North too.

The GFS Ensembles show a very flat pattern over the next two weeks showing changes in the pattern over the next few weeks will be slow and not very noticeable to the majority of folk on the ground. The Atlantic bandwagon remains well in control carrying depressions across the Atlantic to the North throughout with just the hint of a temporary more SE track to the Jet flow deeper into Europe for a time with the risk of colder injections at times before the pattern resets late in the run.

The Jet Stream shows no change in the orientation of the flow for the foreseeable future carrying it West to East across the Atlantic and close to or over the UK. The flow does dig South across Europe later in the outputs but remains high across the Atlantic maintaining the milder feed across the UK.

In Summary the weather remains Atlantic driven with a continuing changeable pattern alternating between rain bands crossing East and a sunshine and shower mix in between. With winds generally from a Westerly point the weather looks never overly cold with just polar maritime air delivering some wintry showers to Northern hills at times. There is some suggestion that High pressure could edge up closer to Southern Britain later removing the deeply unsettled weather of late to something drier and much less windy and still not cold though this theory is balanced with the chance of Low pressure slipping SE over Europe and bringing the UK into more cold northerly components and attendant wintry weather for a time.

ECM control run looks very tasty, but an outlier. Getting to this cold spell is like pulling teeth again. We have to go through this every year!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php