There is evidence from the model output that the PV is going to markedly reduce in its intensity as we move into the New Year.
There is also evidence of resultant height rises in response to the polar vortex weakening over Greenland and more generally at 70-75 N.
Those wishing for some deeper cold in the long term really need to be studying the behaviour of the Arctic high. We really need to see a strong nosing southwards in the Svalbard region and very cold uppers pushing into Scandinavia.
Before then zonality is likely to become diluted with colder air starting to filter into the UK as a result of this PV weakening. The chances of snow over higher ground in the New Year increases.
Longer term trends are semi encouraging and these need watching.
Members are going to be disappointed if they are relying on seeing the trend on every run at this stage however.
Hope you have all had a great christmas.
Originally Posted by: Gusty