theweatheroutlook

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JACKO4EVER
26 December 2013 11:41:34
Outlier alert Marcus!
A few hints as you say, but a zonal flavour throughout
Hope you all had a great Christmas!
marting
26 December 2013 12:03:21
06 GFS ensemble shows a cooling trend after 6th Jan, in line with the operational run, although it still is a colder option. Trends continue,
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Gooner
26 December 2013 12:04:31

Outlier alert Marcus! A few hints as you say, but a zonal flavour throughout Hope you all had a great Christmas!

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122606/gfsnh-0-336.png?6


another hint from the control


they will both have support Jacko..............trust me

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


JACKO4EVER
26 December 2013 12:26:47


Outlier alert Marcus! A few hints as you say, but a zonal flavour throughout Hope you all had a great Christmas!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122606/gfsnh-0-336.png?6


another hint from the control


they will both have support Jacko..............trust me


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I like your optimism Marcus. Actually, thats not far from a decent chart for cold weather fans. In the meantime, off to watch the football. Happy chart hunting!


Jacko

Gooner
26 December 2013 12:27:08

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


Support for the Op is no surprise

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 December 2013 12:35:19

Temps IMBY from 6z


8c 6c 4c 7c 9c 8c 6c 5c 5c 6c 5c 4c 4c 3c 3c

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Snowvillain
26 December 2013 12:42:44
Sorry for going slightly off topic but does anybody know where I can find the ensembles for Leicester?
Retron
26 December 2013 12:50:31

Sorry for going slightly off topic but does anybody know where I can find the ensembles for Leicester?

Originally Posted by: Snowvillain 


Click away!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php

Leysdown, north Kent
Zubzero
26 December 2013 12:51:26

Sorry for going slightly off topic but does anybody know where I can find the ensembles for Leicester?

Originally Posted by: Snowvillain 


just click on the map 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php

Sevendust
26 December 2013 12:53:14


Temps IMBY from 12z


8c 6c 4c 7c 9c 8c 6c 5c 5c 6c 5c 4c 4c 3c 3c


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


12z?

Gooner
26 December 2013 13:06:21



Temps IMBY from 12z


8c 6c 4c 7c 9c 8c 6c 5c 5c 6c 5c 4c 4c 3c 3c


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


12z?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Good spot


Amended

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


idj20
26 December 2013 13:32:10



There is evidence from the model output that the PV is going to markedly reduce in its intensity as we move into the New Year. 


There is also evidence of resultant height rises in response to the polar vortex weakening over Greenland and more generally at 70-75 N.


Those wishing for some deeper cold in the long term really need to be studying the behaviour of the Arctic high. We really need to see a strong nosing southwards in the Svalbard region and very cold uppers pushing into Scandinavia.


Before then zonality is likely to become diluted with colder air starting to filter into the UK as a result of this PV weakening. The chances of snow over higher ground in the New Year increases.


Longer term trends are semi encouraging and these need watching.


Members are going to be disappointed if they are relying on seeing the trend on every run at this stage however.


Hope you have all had a great christmas.



 


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


we also need to remember it wasn't until the last third of January last year we saw decent snow ( IMBY anyway  20/1/13) there wasn't any real cold all winter last year ( hard frosts -5, -6, -7 etc , again IMBY ) yet when the snow fell it sat around for what seemed an age.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Indeed, as the latest GFS pressure and Jet Stream outputs are throwing up some interesting scenarios right at the tail end of the runs, like it has been doing lately (wobbles aside). Naturally it's all in FI and not set in stone, etc, etc, but I can see that trend of us breaking out from this changeable zonal stuff into something of a more wintry flavour as we go into the middle part of January.
  I always bear in mind that significant snowy spells still can (and do) occur during a generally mild and changeble winter. But for now, I am glad that it does appear this raging zonal stuff is hopefully going to get watered down in time. Like many others in here, I've had my fill of strong winds even though the rain isn't being that much of an issue IMBY. :-D

Folkestone Harbour. 
Snowvillain
26 December 2013 13:52:22
Thanks!
The Beast from the East
26 December 2013 16:29:10

possibly a good FI coming up


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfs-0-174.png?12

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
26 December 2013 16:33:56

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfsnh-0-186.png?12


LP looks set to drive across the Atlantic ,HP across Greenland not far enough South

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
26 December 2013 16:36:00

so close


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 December 2013 16:37:02

can somebody nuke the Azores high

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
26 December 2013 16:48:49

Still looking pretty awful. I suspect the hints of colder weather in the metforecast refer to cold sectors rather than blocking. On the positive side, I do see some very small potential for a suprise snow event tonight into tommorow for parts of N england. Will keep watching this closely. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
26 December 2013 16:51:31

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12


ends up as probably one of the milder options

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
26 December 2013 16:53:39


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12


ends up as probably one of the milder options


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


At least by 384 that cold pool is starting to show signs of migrating to a less god awful place; relativly speaking of course; as greenland is probably the 2nd worst place in the northern hemisphere it could go. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
JACKO4EVER
26 December 2013 17:06:29

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12 
ends up as probably one of the milder options

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


But not without support ?
LOL

nickl
26 December 2013 17:08:25



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12


ends up as probably one of the milder options


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


At least by 384 that cold pool is starting to show signs of migrating to a less god awful place; relativly speaking of course; as greenland is probably the 2nd worst place in the northern hemisphere it could go. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


things look ok so why we are seeking solace in a day 16 gfs op chart baffles me. gfs low res = no real consistency (apart from dropping a trough into europe at least once at some point in the run). gefs and ecm ens in good fi agreement on height anomolys. 

Gooner
26 December 2013 17:44:20

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12  ends up as probably one of the milder options

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

But not without support ? LOL

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


of course Jason as there will always be , but in the minority

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 December 2013 17:46:50




http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12


ends up as probably one of the milder options


Originally Posted by: nickl 


At least by 384 that cold pool is starting to show signs of migrating to a less god awful place; relativly speaking of course; as greenland is probably the 2nd worst place in the northern hemisphere it could go. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


things look ok so why we are seeking solace in a day 16 gfs op chart baffles me. gfs low res = no real consistency (apart from dropping a trough into europe at least once at some point in the run). gefs and ecm ens in good fi agreement on height anomolys. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Solace?


hmm that wasn't the point of posting that chart............as crap as it is


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 December 2013 17:49:40
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