I was wary of the trend of the winter so far and it appears to have struck again, although GFS and ECM have actually moved towards each other rather than just ECM towards GFS.
Unfortunately that means that we see higher heights to our NE but only to an extent which traps troughs across the UK. Energy could still dig SE of course - GFS wasn't far away with that, and in that regard ECM is highly unlucky with the way the upstream energy behaves. The trapped trough across the UK frequently angles the jet stream south into Europe.
The net outcome looks to be a colder form of zonality for the most part, with a lot more rain and the risk of a severe wind event somewhere (ECM's 216-240h progression indictes a vicious secondary low racing across the south).
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser