Model Output Discussion 26/12/13 23:39>>>· Page 2

Polar Low
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 10:06:13

Indeed James,

Gm is a little different it does this time dig the energy s/e anything can happen from there only trouble with that is I said that about 5 days ago when gm did the same.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=1

I was wary of the trend of the winter so far and it appears to have struck again, although GFS and ECM have actually moved towards each other rather than just ECM towards GFS.

Unfortunately that means that we see higher heights to our NE but only to an extent which traps troughs across the UK. Energy could still dig SE of course - GFS wasn't far away with that, and in that regard ECM is highly unlucky with the way the upstream energy behaves. The trapped trough across the UK frequently angles the jet stream south into Europe.

The net outcome looks to be a colder form of zonality for the most part, with a lot more rain and the risk of a severe wind event somewhere (ECM's 216-240h progression indictes a vicious secondary low racing across the south).

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

Polar Low
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 10:14:51

#27

Another very impressive jet streak it goes on and on

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=5

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0

Edited by user 27 December 2013 10:18:07 | Reason: Not specified

Charmhills
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 10:15:11

#28

As much as I admire the enthisiasm, nothing has really changed in the last week and the MetO extended outlooks continue to have a pretty decent grasp on the outlook IMO. It's pretty much zonal Atlantic strong jet driven mobility right into January with any othe roption still very much in the minority.
There would have to be an awful lot more evidence than a few hand-picked ensemble pertubations to persuade me otherwise I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

Indeed Neil.

Poor outlook up to mid January very Atlantic dominated IMO.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Polar Low
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 10:22:14

#29

worry is the totals are starting to really topping up again more misery with flooding for many poor folk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/126h.htm

nickl
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 10:24:45

#30

I was wary of the trend of the winter so far and it appears to have struck again, although GFS and ECM have actually moved towards each other rather than just ECM towards GFS.
Unfortunately that means that we see higher heights to our NE but only to an extent which traps troughs across the UK. Energy could still dig SE of course - GFS wasn't far away with that, and in that regard ECM is highly unlucky with the way the upstream energy behaves. The trapped trough across the UK frequently angles the jet stream south into Europe.
The net outcome looks to be a colder form of zonality for the most part, with a lot more rain and the risk of a severe wind event somewhere (ECM's 216-240h progression indictes a vicious secondary low racing across the south).

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

I think it has to go se once we get past around the 6th SC. the Azores retrogreses towards a new ridge off the eastern seaboard and settles mid Atlantic. The block to our ne is solid nw Russia/ridging Svalbard. Where will the energy from eastern Canada go? Over us and then se into the continent. A very interesting week of watching coming up as the nwp ops settle on this broad solution.

Polar Low
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 10:41:52

#31

That would be very nice but only a very few gfs members want to do that sort of thing really very slim imho but i hope im wrong of course

this ones a classic make the most of it before it goes

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=5&ech=288&mode=0&carte=1

I was wary of the trend of the winter so far and it appears to have struck again, although GFS and ECM have actually moved towards each other rather than just ECM towards GFS. Unfortunately that means that we see higher heights to our NE but only to an extent which traps troughs across the UK. Energy could still dig SE of course - GFS wasn't far away with that, and in that regard ECM is highly unlucky with the way the upstream energy behaves. The trapped trough across the UK frequently angles the jet stream south into Europe. The net outcome looks to be a colder form of zonality for the most part, with a lot more rain and the risk of a severe wind event somewhere (ECM's 216-240h progression indictes a vicious secondary low racing across the south).

Originally Posted by: nickl

I think it has to go se once we get past around the 6th SC. the Azores retrogreses towards a new ridge off the eastern seaboard and settles mid Atlantic. The block to our ne is solid nw Russia/ridging Svalbard. Where will the energy from eastern Canada go? Over us and then se into the continent. A very interesting week of watching coming up as the nwp ops settle on this broad solution.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser

Gooner
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 10:47:15

#32

worry is the totals are starting to really topping up again more misery with flooding for many poor folk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/126h.htm

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

I think fortunately there is enough 'dry time' for the waters to drop before the next belt of rain comes through, the deluge that we experienced a few days ago was exceptional

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 11:24:22

#33

No type of weather lasts all winter , in December 2010 we had a superb spell , after that ....naff all

IMBY we had nothing until January 20th last Winter then it lay around for weeks , I would rather zonal now than 6 weeks of it through Jan and Feb

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

JACKO4EVER
Guest

27 December 2013 11:31:14

#34

Morning All. After yesterdays fun and games its back to reality with a fairly broad agreement of plenty of wind and rain on offer. Slim pickings in this mornings output for cold weather fans- though it should not be overly mild. In between the rain bands should be some good, workable days in the South at least- so not too bad at all.

So with December nearly done and dusted, I turn my attention to January CET. My guestimate will be on the slightly milder side of average- certainly its looking that way for a good deal of the opening part of the month.

Polar Low
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 13:05:48

#35

Hope you are so right Marcus but warnings now out for s/w for Monday

Further rain, heavy at times, is expected to spread quickly eastwards across southwest England on Sunday night and into Monday morning. Rainfall totals are expected to be widely 15 to 20 mm, but as much as 40 to 50 mm over windward coasts and hills. With ground already saturated over much of this region, the public should be aware of the risk of further local flooding. In addition to this rain, strong winds - gusting up to 60 mph over more-exposed locations - will accompany the rain

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=7E4292B9-4697-19D4-F988-1F3CB8F6DCE7_11_NI&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1388361600

worry is the totals are starting to really topping up again more misery with flooding for many poor folk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/126h.htm

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I think fortunately there is enough 'dry time' for the waters to drop before the next belt of rain comes through, the deluge that we experienced a few days ago was exceptional

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Gavin P
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 13:28:38

#36

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Exceptionally Cold Stratosphere + JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Not seeing any great changes going into January, though the JMA continues to hint at the chance of some colder conditions developing through January.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gooner
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 13:34:33

#37

Hope you are so right Marcus but warnings now out for s/w for Monday

Further rain, heavy at times, is expected to spread quickly eastwards across southwest England on Sunday night and into Monday morning. Rainfall totals are expected to be widely 15 to 20 mm, but as much as 40 to 50 mm over windward coasts and hills. With ground already saturated over much of this region, the public should be aware of the risk of further local flooding. In addition to this rain, strong winds - gusting up to 60 mph over more-exposed locations - will accompany the rain

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=7E4292B9-4697-19D4-F988-1F3CB8F6DCE7_11_NI&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1388361600

worry is the totals are starting to really topping up again more misery with flooding for many poor folk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/126h.htm

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

I think fortunately there is enough 'dry time' for the waters to drop before the next belt of rain comes through, the deluge that we experienced a few days ago was exceptional

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Originally Posted by: Polar Low

Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be chilly and dry , should be enough ....hopefully

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 13:45:43

#38

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Exceptionally Cold Stratosphere + JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Not seeing any great changes going into January, though the JMA continues to hint at the chance of some colder conditions developing through January.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Cheers Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

JACKO4EVER
Guest

27 December 2013 16:13:51

#39

Cheers Gavin! Great video again, that pattern sure looks locked for January. Just hope the rainfall totals don't get too high!

Charmhills
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:40:48

#40

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Exceptionally Cold Stratosphere + JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Not seeing any great changes going into January, though the JMA continues to hint at the chance of some colder conditions developing through January.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Cheers Gav.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

marting
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:43:31

#41

GFS run tonight loses the Atlantic strength and in comes the cold in FI. Will see how it sits in ensembles later. Looks once though - I can dream!
Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.

squish
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:46:06

#42

Very interesting 12z GFS

GEM showing promise too at +126
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013122712/gemnh-0-126.png?12

a very southerly jet could plunge us quickly into a Jan 87 type scenario if the arctic high forces through in the right place (and at the right time)

Interesting few days model watching to come ...

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

Gavin P
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:47:09

#43

Thanks all.

Hope I wasn't squinting too much at the camera. My eye's are curently incredibly sensitive (for those that don't know I have shinges (hence the rash on my fore-head in my eye. )

Edited by user 27 December 2013 16:49:29 | Reason: Not specified

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

squish
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:47:29

#44

Stormy UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013122712/UN144-21.GIF?27-17

Classic old time winter set-up...

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:52:05

#45

Thanks all.

Hope I wasn't squinting too much at the camera. My eye's are curently incredibly sensitive (for those that don't know I have shinges (hence the rash on my fore-head in my eye. )

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

I had the same thing in September. Everyone thought I'd been beaten up!

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Charmhills
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:52:44

#46

Thanks all.

Hope I wasn't squinting too much at the camera. My eye's are curently incredibly sensitive (for those that don't know I have shinges (hence the rash on my fore-head in my eye. )

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Can't say I noticed Gav.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Gavin P
Advanced Member

27 December 2013 16:55:57

#47

Thanks all.

Hope I wasn't squinting too much at the camera. My eye's are curently incredibly sensitive (for those that don't know I have shinges (hence the rash on my fore-head in my eye. )

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

I had the same thing in September. Everyone thought I'd been beaten up!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Nasty, isn't it!

On Topic, that is indeed quite an interesting GFS run - FWIW I do think we'll have at the very least some cold snap's (perhaps 2-3 days duration like back in the good old day's of this forum) during January.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids