Good morning everyone. Here is my interpretation of how I see events unfolding as we enter the first weeks of 2014 seen through the eyes of the midnight outputs of the NWP for Saturday December 29th 2013.
All models show a steadily weakening SW to West airflow with showers as pressure rises over the next 24 hours. A ridge of High pressure crosses East early tomorrow with an active frontal system moving quickly in from the Atlantic later tomorrow with increasing SW winds and heavy rain sweeping East across all areas late tomorrow and overnight. Over Monday showery weather returns behind a cold front before more rain on Tuesday and later on New Years Day maintain the very wet conditions with renewed floods likely as we move into the New Year in association with deep Low pressure areas close to or over the UK in temperatures close to average.
GFS takes us through the start of 2014 with a seemingly incessant barrage of Low pressure after Low pressure streaming in on a strong Jet flow and delivering spell after spell of heavy rain and strong winds with only brief drier weather in between, these most likely later when transient ridges of High pressure cross over briefly ahead of the next system.
UKMO today show Low pressure covering all of the Atlantic Ocean North of the Azores with strong SW to West winds and series of troughs crossing quickly East or NE in the flow. Areas of rain and showers will be heavy at times with strong winds too making for an unpleasant and wet start to 2014.
GEM also shows a sustained and prolonged wet period with Low pressure permanently present over or just to the North of Britain with fronts bringing spells of rain and showers repeatedly East in the strong flow throughout the runs later stages.
NAVGEM also shows no remorse with with spells of heavy rain too occurring in very strong WSW winds and temperatures close to average.
ECM today also paints a worrying picture for those looking for relief from recent floods as it indicates a very unsettled phase with frequent bouts of gales and heavy rains as trough after trough crosses East over the UK in strong to gale Westerly winds and temperatures largely near to normal.
The GFS Ensembles indicate the Atlantic remains in top gear as it continues to pummel the UK with Low pressure after Low pressure with rain and strong winds at times from all members with temperatures close to the long term mean.
The Jet Stream continues to blow very strongly out of the States and across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain for the next week or so. If anything it then slips very slightly South across France as the UK remains under a broad and deep Atlantic trough.
In Summary today if anything the resolve towards wet and windy conditions persisting has strengthened overnight. All models indicate some very worrying synoptics for those that are looking for relief from recent floods as next week looks thoroughly wet and stormy at times with strong winds reaching severe gale force in places. In Week 2 small changes to the far NE in the Arctic only serve to pull depressions even further down over the UK from GFS and landing us under a deep trough with further wet and sometimes stormy conditions through Week 2 as well. All other models just continue the incessant feed of wind and rain East across Britain too 10 days from now. We really do need a break from this pattern soon as flooding issues are going to become unprecedented if some of this morning's output verify..lets hope for some moderation in the theme soon.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset