Still looking for signs of that cold pool over canada buggering off. By 240 there is a slight improvement with HP over newfoundland, and higher heights over the hudson; however another cold shot of sub -30C uppers is waiting in the wings. Doesn't look good. CFS still keen on keeping the pattern going until march. 

Fixed that for you. CFS is worse than useless.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

(ECM is the highest scoring at day 10 - it's a bit better than making a pure guess (50%), GFS is worse than guessing and CFS is even worse than that!)

The 6z GEFS is the most promising regarding synoptics in some time. Yesterday's MOGREPS and ECM-15 contained several easterlies by day 10/15 but they weren't in the majority. Nonetheless, mildness and zonality until mid-January is far from nailed on.

Given it's warmer over Eastern Europe and Russia (warmest Christmas on record on Moscow) than it is over the Atlantic, are people really still looking for an easterly?   Or are they hoping for an early sign of spring warmth? 

Yes, people really are. Believe it or not, mainland Europe can cool down within 2 or 3 days if Arctic air is displaced.

(This is an old stalwart argument, suffice to say that if we get an Arctic High moving down over Scandinavia mainland Europe would cool down in no time.)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013122706/run2/cfsnh-2-1110.png?06

Mild all the way Jacko

That's making rather a lot of assumptions! Suffice to say that none of us can tell what sort of easterly we'd get, there have been all sorts on offer in the ensembles from a quick easterly waft to proper deep cold easterlies (even in the 6z GEFS today, if you have a browse!)

I'd rather take a grey, tepid easterly recycled from the Med any day over the recent gales and rain.

(Besides, although it was a few weeks ago now, before this zonal spell we had a Euro high with SSE'lies. It led to the only frosts of the winter so far down here, combined with crisp, sunny days. And that was from a "warm" source!)

Me too

Even the latest update mention the possibility of significant cold later in Jan......................Easteerly?

As an unsettled regime remains the form horse, it's that which I will continue to study over the coming 10 days... and it looks like we're going to get machine-gunned with disturbances next week, in fact I can't recall seeing so many seperate rainmakers in one week as are modelled by the ECM 00z op run!

GFS has a similar count, but going by ECM, the menu looks like this:

Monday: relatively brief but heavy frontal rain in the first half, showers second half for some of us, briefly windy but nothing much (what's with the Met Office wind warning...?). Possible complications from a small secondary disturbance crossing the south.

Tuesday: another frontal system, similar to Monday's but crossing a little more slowly, with weaker winds but more rain.

Wednesday: disturbance in the Irish Sea at midnight and a kink in the isobars running SE suggests another frontal system or at least a trough line bringing some organised showers

Thursday: Notable shortwave brings heavy rain and some stronger winds, the former a real concern, the latter nothing exceptional.

Friday: A secondary low, stronger than Thursday's feature, brings some notably strong winds to Ireland, Wales and the Midlands, plus a load more heavy rain - flooding could be extensive and in some places severe by this time.

Saturday: Another secondary low brings an active cold front with heavy rain and somewhat strong winds. Precipitation would likely become wintry showers overnight into Sunday across almost all of the UK.

Sunday: a showery day but with the remains of the LP from Friday drifting down from the NW to enhance things further.

Monday-Tuesday: a secondary LP races through with wind and rain ahead of another major trough arriving from the west, albiet while weakening having peaked out in the Atlantic. Still some notably strong winds and heavy rain, though!

To summarise,  

Northerly? 

Yes, people really are. Believe it or not, mainland Europe can cool down within 2 or 3 days if Arctic air is displaced.

(This is an old stalwart argument, suffice to say that if we get an Arctic High moving down over Scandinavia mainland Europe would cool down in no time.)