Agree with the last 2 posters, I trawled through the output this morning and found it pretty hard to stomach. 

Not least due to the current and likely future flooding but also the threat of further damage from storms which is becoming something of a headache, and Im being conservative in my language.  Sadly, it would appear perfectly possible that January, or at least its first half, is going to continue the broad theme that set in during October of windy wet unsettled weather.

We really need something to change, and soon...

One third of winter over and still I haven't been able to lamppost watch!

Originally Posted by: Caz 

That would be Meteorological winter rather than astronomical winter......for the latter, winter is just a mere 5 days old

Originally Posted by: NickR 

Oh look, a hardy perennial popping its head up again, Bangor cue.....

The winter solstice isn't the start of winter. End of......

:-)

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

 ..........The gospel according to GTW

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Nah, just the Met Office.

I think that's game set and match...... :-)

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

Read my post in response to Quantum ......I rather think that's advantage point to me

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

For a meteorological site discussing meteorology, only the meteorological winter matters and counts IMO. 

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

Agreed!  It's the weather that interests me more than the calendar.  Last December was relatively mild here but we had cold and snow from January right through to April.

Originally Posted by: colin46 

Many people have forgotten that , much can change yet

 Great summary.
If and when there is a significant change in general synoptics across the Atlantic and W Europe I will be the first to become enthusiastic.
In the meantime it's mobile, wet to very wet and occasionally very windy all the way into the middle of January IMO. No amount of green-wellied gesticulation from our PM will ease those suffering at the moment. What we need is a big block over or to the NE of the UK and soon.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-192.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-228.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-252.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-276.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-300.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-324.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-348.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122800/gfsnh-1-372.png?0

Plenty of cold air covering the UK

Much can and no doubt will change Marcus, but hopecasting aside perhaps some of those you claim have 'forgotten' how patterns can quickly change are only calling it as they see it - in current output.
I would love to see a big fat Scandy high pop up from nowhere, and it may, but according to current NWP pretty much across the board and including the whole suites when available, it ain't happening anytime soon.

Most of the people do that, although the odd one or two have written off the whole of January and yet we still have 5 days of December left

Anyway temps IMBY from 0z

5c 8c 8c 7c 6c 5c 4c 7c 6c 4c 4c 2c 2c 0c 1c

What seems to happen is that the focus of the jet does indeed sink a little athough heights to the north are not that impressive. I'm also interested by the continued strengthening of the Eurobloc. Way too far east on current runs but will need watching as we head well into January.

Sadly the sinking jet just means more rainfall down here

I'm generally unimpressed with those temp. forecasts. They always seem way to low compared with what really occurs although that may be to do with poor synoptic evolution. Fww I have only had one day this winter that has failed to reach 5'C

Blimey , we have has a few days of 2's , 3's  or 4's , not many but a few

I think all Marcus is saying is don't take the model output as gospel, especially that for a week or more ahead. It is too easy to look at poor sets of model runs and think that what they show is definitely going to transpire. The models only give us a guide, esp for much further down the line. I still recall how one person here famously said back in February 2005 that winter was over on the face of poor model output, but only a matter of days later the member concerned was made to swallow his words when the models did a major volte-face. OK, that was only one instance of an unexpected change, but it shows how quickly things can change sometimes.

The last one show lot of -28C uppers in Canada and I am sure it will hit Toronto at some point when I am there.  That chart show very deep cold air making accross the altantic while UK is in a mild sector as usual.  I think UK will get colder when I return back and this current status cannot go on forever anyway.

That is deep cold, some record low temps there , get your camera out J

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122806/gfs-1-138.png?6

All that cold air flooding across the Atlantic can only mean one thing

Yes, very unsettled/stormy with flooding a greter risk as we go though next week even BBC weather pointed that out yesterday.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122806/gfs-1-150.png?6

Cold uppers from the west!

Will do and shouldn't miss out as it is widespread -28C uppers and lowest I experienced was -25C in Jan 2005 over there.  That chart you put show well beyond 180 hours as it only reached 180 hours for N America on GFS chart at wetterzentral. 

The gulf stream prevent it from happening as there no gulf stream in N Pacific that why Vancouver was allowed to see more occasional snowfalls in winter.  You can see it almost straight lines of temps values over the N Pacific than the Altantic that have a big lump of milder sea temps over the UK to north of Scandnavia where it ends, I try to picture myself if gulf stream does not exist then most of Scandi sea regions would be frozen over with N sea partly frozen and baltic completely froze over.  I use wetterzentral for sea temps chart that I view it every day.