As an unsettled regime remains the form horse, it's that which I will continue to study over the coming 10 days... and it looks like we're going to get machine-gunned with disturbances next week, in fact I can't recall seeing so many seperate rainmakers in one week as are modelled by the ECM 00z op run!
GFS has a similar count, but going by ECM, the menu looks like this:
Monday: relatively brief but heavy frontal rain in the first half, showers second half for some of us, briefly windy but nothing much (what's with the Met Office wind warning...?). Possible complications from a small secondary disturbance crossing the south.
Tuesday: another frontal system, similar to Monday's but crossing a little more slowly, with weaker winds but more rain.
Wednesday: disturbance in the Irish Sea at midnight and a kink in the isobars running SE suggests another frontal system or at least a trough line bringing some organised showers
Thursday: Notable shortwave brings heavy rain and some stronger winds, the former a real concern, the latter nothing exceptional.
Friday: A secondary low, stronger than Thursday's feature, brings some notably strong winds to Ireland, Wales and the Midlands, plus a load more heavy rain - flooding could be extensive and in some places severe by this time.
Saturday: Another secondary low brings an active cold front with heavy rain and somewhat strong winds. Precipitation would likely become wintry showers overnight into Sunday across almost all of the UK.
Sunday: a showery day but with the remains of the LP from Friday drifting down from the NW to enhance things further.
Monday-Tuesday: a secondary LP races through with wind and rain ahead of another major trough arriving from the west, albiet while weakening having peaked out in the Atlantic. Still some notably strong winds and heavy rain, though!
To summarise,
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On