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Daniel
  • Daniel
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2013 13:42:37

Back in the Autumn 2013 there were winter forcasts comming out and reported in major newspapers that the comming winter 2013/14 would be the coldest in a 100 years with jan being colder than the freezing December 2010 with weeks of bitter cold and heavy snows.  Now in order for this winter to be the coldest in a 100 years it would have to have beaten the 1962/63 winter event.  The worst winter since 1740.  Now in the winter of 1962/63 all 3 winter months were severe with 2 subzero months and the severe cold starting on Chri Day and heavy snow falling in boxing day in England 1962.  In fact Chr 1962 was one of the coldest of the 20th century and after that the snow lasted on the Ground until March.


Fast Faward to Chr 2013 the weather has turned out totally different toChr 1962.   In Chri 2013 there was no starting of another great freeze and the forcast of a 100 year freeze this winter are now false and wrong.   It is now simply not possibal for this winter to the coldest in a 100 years.   Even if we dfo get severe weather later on the mild weather already will cancel that out in the CET record and the chances of any prelonged freeze this winter is now looking more and more unlikerly.  The current mild weather will now last until mid Jan and that half the winter already gone.   So those who forcast this great freeze have got it Wrong.


So what went rong.  Well the nothern blocking that is needed for such a freeze has not occured and instead we have had a powerful jet stream blassting across the Atlantic bringing strong west winds.   In fact the Atlantic has on over all been active since September.   The cause of this is severe cold in parts of North America.   They have been suffering record cold since the Autumn on and off.   So what has happened the severe cold has deveolped over in North America Not North West Europe and this has thrown all the cold forcasts off.

Gooner
30 December 2013 13:49:31

Nothing has gone wrong


It was just newspaper selling....simple as that


Hopefully you didnt believe it


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


micahel37
30 December 2013 14:09:01
Agreed.

The current winter is well within the normal range of conditions for the time of year. While many would prefer otherwise the reality is that snow is relatively uncommon in the UK during the winter (with the exception of parts of Norther Scotland above 250m), and what snow we do get tends to fall later in winter. Wet, unsettled conditions are pretty much what you would expect at the turn of the year.

The reports in a minority of the tabloids were overblown and groundless, something that should come as no surprise given their track record.

Polbeth, West Lothian 150m asl
Quantum
30 December 2013 14:11:20

Good post


Some people are still predicting these kind of scenarios.


Exactaweather: "The big freeze and widespread snow is coming to many parts of the country in January (as promised) + New Year's Eve snow @http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
30 December 2013 14:15:43
The newspaper reports came from "forecasters" who are, in effect, one-man bands that supply overhyped press releases to drive traffic to their sites.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/the-met-offices-outlook-for-uk-winter/ 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Daniel
  • Daniel
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2013 15:13:33


Good post


Some people are still predicting these kind of scenarios.


Exactaweather: "The big freeze and widespread snow is coming to many parts of the country in January (as promised) + New Year's Eve snow @http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The severe cold is occuring this Winter.  But on the American side of the Atlantic.  Parts of North America have seen record cold and snow.  The problem for us this cold has never formed over North west Europe.   As I said in order to get severe cold in North West Europe we need strong northern blocking and the cold comming down  out of North America clearly has prevened that from occuring.   I just cant under stand why they keep geeting The U.K Winter forcast so Wrong.  The newspapers head lines screemed big freeze.  Yet instead we got mild Atlantic weather with powerful storms.  As I said the Alantic has been active since September this year and it looks like it will remain active well into Jan.

Quantum
30 December 2013 15:17:57



Good post


Some people are still predicting these kind of scenarios.


Exactaweather: "The big freeze and widespread snow is coming to many parts of the country in January (as promised) + New Year's Eve snow @http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html


 


Originally Posted by: Daniel 


The severe cold is occuring this Winter.  But on the American side of the Atlantic.  Parts of North America have seen record cold and snow.  The problem for us this cold has never formed over North west Europe.   As I said in order to get severe cold in North West Europe we need strong northern blocking and the cold comming down  out of North America clearly has prevened that from occuring.   I just cant under stand why they keep geeting The U.K Winter forcast so Wrong.  The newspapers head lines screemed big freeze.  Yet instead we got mild Atlantic weather with powerful storms.  As I said the Alantic has been active since September this year and it looks like it will remain active well into Jan.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


They predict record cold every year, so I think even calling it a forecast is a bit generous. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Daniel
  • Daniel
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2013 15:18:55

The newspaper reports came from "forecasters" who are, in effect, one-man bands that supply overhyped press releases to drive traffic to their sites.

The Met Office never forecasted any kind of notably cold winter. See their response to the headlines at the time here: Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/the-met-offices-outlook-for-uk-winter/


The lession from this is do not  belive  in early winter forcasts or what the newspapers say.  As so often some of these forcasts get it so wrong.  The most  serious  forcasts are from proper sites like the met office not from what others write in newspapers.

Osprey
30 December 2013 15:24:06

Normal winter for me, just bit more stormy and wetter than usual


A different theme every winter


Next show; Siberian express...


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Medlock Vale Weather
30 December 2013 15:26:50

Yes the reality is bitter cold and snow is not that common in the UK, only highland Scotland is it more likely to happen and even then it is brief and gets washed away quickly by the Atlantic.


The last 4 or 5 years have scewed peoples brains a bit - thinking we may have flipped into some sort of mini ice age.


Even in the 60's & 70's I remember many a Winter of wet and wild weather. So the way this Winter is panning out is not a surprise to me at all, it's normal. This Winter hasn't been a very mild Winter though - up to now it's been chilly but of course wet.


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Arcus
30 December 2013 15:28:42

It was the same last year, it will be the same next year. Weather porn sells papers, regardless of veracity.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/Express.jpg


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
30 December 2013 15:33:50

I think we always get someone predicting the type of winter we might get someone will be right, whether it's good or bad.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
jamesthemonkeh
30 December 2013 20:13:06

I know it is a free country but this kind of sensationalist scare-mongouring from certain newspapers does annoy me.  Hopefully people are learning to ignore them.


Brian Gaze
30 December 2013 22:23:50

No personal comments please. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
30 December 2013 22:44:27
But what about Carlisle?
UncleAlbert
31 December 2013 00:22:03
As we approach the end of the least blocked December I can recall, and here I am referring back to the late 1950s I feel it worth making a few points about current events. At the time of the outrageous press predictions (sourced from elsewhere maybe... but the press is responsible for its sourcing), the major models were already showing a strong signal that December would pan out in the way it has.

Moving forward, much has also been made on the weather forums about how some severe spells did not kick off until later in January. (1947, 1991 to the fore). There have been many Januarys that have produced major cold shots even across Southern Britain after an earlier milder spell. However from memory and looking at the archives in the last 60 years, cold spells in January are always preceded at some point in December by some colder weather over the UK and/or an element of HLB at least somewhere in the area from Greenland to Northern Europe even if a milder less blocked spell intervenes through into the New Year. I stand to be challenged on this and I do appreciate that my argument (as any challenge) can only be subjective. I know this does not look good for cold lovers and one crumb of comfort was that 2011-12 came close to being an exception with the freeze over Europe. Summing up, the chances of cold even up to the end of January were beginning to look rather slim at the point the Express produced the first of those headlines.
Essan
31 December 2013 09:35:51


So what went rong. 


Originally Posted by: Daniel 



It didn't occur for the same reason that planet Nibiru didn't appear in the skies, the world didn't end on the 21st December 2012 and space aliens didn't land at the London Olympics


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Rob K
31 December 2013 10:34:54

As we approach the end of the least blocked December I can recall, and here I am referring back to the late 1950s

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


Seriously? The first half of the month was very high-pressure dominated. Remember the endless whinging about anticyclonic gloom? Are people's memories really that short?


 


The month started like this: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013120112-0-6.png


December 10 looked like this: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013121012-0-6.png


That is only three weeks ago. December has been far from an endless rain fest.


December 1986 was far more zonal than this month, and I am sure there have been others.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
31 December 2013 10:38:53


As we approach the end of the least blocked December I can recall, and here I am referring back to the late 1950s

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Seriously? The first half of the month was very high-pressure dominated. Remember the endless whinging about anticyclonic gloom? Are people's memories really that short?


 


The month started like this: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013120112-0-6.png


December 10 looked like this: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013121012-0-6.png


That is only three weeks ago. December has been far from an endless rain fest.


Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


Yes


I remember all the moaning about HP being stuck in the wrong place and  people wanting something else to talk about......well we have it ...rain and wind


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


UncleAlbert
31 December 2013 22:00:07



As we approach the end of the least blocked December I can recall, and here I am referring back to the late 1950s

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Seriously? The first half of the month was very high-pressure dominated. Remember the endless whinging about anticyclonic gloom? Are people's memories really that short?


 


The month started like this: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013120112-0-6.png


December 10 looked like this: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013121012-0-6.png


That is only three weeks ago. December has been far from an endless rain fest.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes


I remember all the moaning about HP being stuck in the wrong place and  people wanting something else to talk about......well we have it ...rain and wind


Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


Yes, I do remember the one month of anticyclonic weather from early November.....bad choice of words, I was of course referring to the lack of Northern blocking.  The main thing I was trying to convey is that any major cold outbreaks in January in recent times are always preceded in December by some cold weather or the type of synoptics that bring colder uppers close to the UK.  As I said it is a subjective argument, (sometimes we have to cut through the hard stats to make a point).


But thanks Gooner for putting me right on that one. 


 

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