Good evening folks. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon outputs of the NWP for today Monday December 30th 2013.
All models show the weather fine for a time tonight as a lull passes East over the UK. Another squally trough feature then moves East over Britain after midnight clearing tomorrow morning to a day of sunshine and squally heavy showers. On New Years Day the weather remains very unsettled with a new Low spinning NE up the Western flank of the UK with renewed gales and heavy rain followed by showers late in the day. The unsettled and windy theme is then shown to continue in one shape or another from all models up to the end of the weekend.
GFS then shows the second half of the run with little respite with further Low pressure areas marching in from the West close to Northern Scotland sending rain bearing troughs East across the UK with further severe gales in places and temperatures close to average throughout.
UKMO closes the run next Sunday showing Low pressure to the West of Ireland with a strong SW flow across the UK with heavy rain and gales continuing to batter the UK on occasion with showers and sunny intervals in between.
GEM tonight shows stormy conditions to start next week before a colder interlude develops with wintry showers as pressure rises from the South with a dry and brighter spell for most in 10 days time, though it doesn't look likely to last long.
NAVGEM closes it's run with deep low pressure to the north of the UK with strong WSW winds carrying further rain and shower bands East across the UK in average temperatures.
ECM too shows the chance of something rather colder setting up as we move towards the end of next week as Low pressure slows down and fills over the UK as High pressure ridges through the Atlantic, setting up a cell of High pressure just to the North and with lower pressure over Southern Europe there is a chance that the end of tonight's ECM could be the break that many cold fans were looking for.
The GFS Ensembles do show some signs of change later in the output as a few members drop into the abyss with regard to cold while others take a more modest approach towards cold late in the run. the net result is another week to 10 days of wet and wild weather before things may turn rather colder and drier.
The Jet Stream shows the flow as before through the next week to 10 days with the increased tendency for it to buckle later as the speed of flow of Atlantic Lows is slowed.
In Summary tonight I am pleased to say that there does seem to be some light at the end of the recent very long tunnel. There is a lot of wind and rain to get through during the next 10 days but there are tonight better signals for a pattern change later next week as the chance of something rather colder and drier is indicated from more than one source.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset