Reposted from NW - this explains the Met Office's text forecasts mention cold. As I suspected a couple of days ago, it's not related to the GLOSEA stratosphere model:
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78787-model-output-discussion-17th-dec2013-12z-onwards/page-96#entry2878659
Yesterday, 23:18
bluearmy, on 29 Dec 2013 - 23:00, said:
Any word on the 30 day 'cold possibility' Ian? Is it glosea 4 or potential cold clusters at day 15?
The latter I believe. Nothing to scare the horses re cold (in strictest sense) until at least mid-Jan, reckon UKMO, but frankly the fixation for now is understandably on rainfall & (to some degree) wind issues for the forseeable. High confidence on the unsettled westerly regime through early to (at least) mid-Jan, but with Pm or rPm phases causing the cooling trend seen in EC ENS... snow/heavy snow for Scotland at times but Exeter stress range of synoptic outcomes into further reaches of trend period, thus confidence declining later into Jan. So, all in keeping with current output available on public websites.
Originally Posted by: Retron