Strong signs from GFS that the PV energy, once displaced out of Canada, would like to vacate to the UK.
There, it looks to meet some blocking to the NE, as the polar profile continues to feature some high pressure i.e. a -ve AO.
That's a recipe for stalling LP systems and lots more rain. Worrying stuff to say the least!
We could be saved if an amplified ridge comes in from the Atlantic and the jet aligns to run well north of the UK, which is what GEM showed us on the 00z.
Amplification building heights to our NE as per the ECM 00z could also work, but I'm not convinced that the jet is likely to slacken off enough for that to occur - UKMO offers no support for that block to evolve as ECM shows.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser