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llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 January 2014 17:37:32

So what'll come first an end to the Atlantic onslaught or the infantile sniping that's corrupted the last couple of threads?


Get a grip and keep it on topic please. 

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Jiries
06 January 2014 17:40:57

What I see from the links today with deep LP does remind me of 1995 winter when it fizzled out and zonality move north in March and went further north in the summer months which became a great summer.  With all the rain since September until to Jan now surely we due for prolonged dryness and I hope it will come on time this year Spring and Summer.  

Stormchaser
06 January 2014 17:57:28

Strong signs from GFS that the PV energy, once displaced out of Canada, would like to vacate to the UK.


There, it looks to meet some blocking to the NE, as the polar profile continues to feature some high pressure i.e. a -ve AO.


That's a recipe for stalling LP systems and lots more rain. Worrying stuff to say the least!


 


We could be saved if an amplified ridge comes in from the Atlantic and the jet aligns to run well north of the UK, which is what GEM showed us on the 00z.


Amplification building heights to our NE as per the ECM 00z could also work, but I'm not convinced that the jet is likely to slacken off enough for that to occur - UKMO offers no support for that block to evolve as ECM shows.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
doctormog
06 January 2014 18:09:09

Strong signs from GFS that the PV energy, once displaced out of Canada, would like to vacate to the UK.


There, it looks to meet some blocking to the NE, as the polar profile continues to feature some high pressure i.e. a -ve AO.


That's a recipe for stalling LP systems and lots more rain. Worrying stuff to say the least!


 


We could be saved if an amplified ridge comes in from the Atlantic and the jet aligns to run well north of the UK, which is what GEM showed us on the 00z.


Amplification building heights to our NE as per the ECM 00z could also work, but I'm not convinced that the jet is likely to slacken off enough for that to occur - UKMO offers no support for that block to evolve as ECM shows.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 



I guess it is a possibility SC but the GFS ensemble data do not paint a very wet picture IMO

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2014 18:09:18
Gem looks good tonight. Some hope for the coldies. Very snowy chart


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
06 January 2014 18:22:14

Gem looks good tonight. Some hope for the coldies. Very snowy chart


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0


Best chart of the day


Good stuff APS

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
06 January 2014 18:24:50
Good chart that. Such a shame it's the gem at 240 hrs away though.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 January 2014 18:25:52

Gem looks good tonight. Some hope for the coldies. Very snowy chart


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0


Is it true that this model is generated by the Exacta laptop

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Karl Guille
06 January 2014 18:31:15

Gem looks good tonight. Some hope for the coldies. Very snowy chart


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Best chart of the day


Good stuff APS



Easily the best chart of the winter thus far in my opinion Marcus and shows us exactly what could happen if all of the blocks fall into the right place at the right time!!

St. Sampson
Guernsey
The Beast from the East
06 January 2014 18:34:50

Blink and you'll miss it.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECH1-144.GIF?06-0


 


Our shot at winter about to get blasted away

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
06 January 2014 18:39:15

Though it still miles better than UKMO and GFS. ECM still keen on a much stronger Scandi ridge


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
moomin75
06 January 2014 18:40:57

Gem looks good tonight. Some hope for the coldies. Very snowy chart


Originally Posted by: llamedos 

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Is it true that this model is generated by the Exacta laptop


As it happens if you look at Exacta's latest update it is a rather sensible forecast for the first time ever. Talks of rain with hill snow and possible "non significant" wintry showers late in the month. Seems like James Madden has finally admitted he cocked up - albeit in not so many words.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
The Beast from the East
06 January 2014 18:45:26

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECH1-192.GIF?06-0


LOL. Dont worry, Im putting the razor blade away!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
06 January 2014 18:45:39


Blink and you'll miss it.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECH1-144.GIF?06-0


 


Our shot at winter about to get blasted away


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The mighty Atlantic does its job!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif


Not overly mild though.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
The Beast from the East
06 January 2014 18:46:55

[



As it happens if you look at Exacta's latest update it is a rather sensible forecast for the first time ever. Talks of rain with hill snow and possible "non significant" wintry showers late in the month. Seems like James Madden has finally admitted he cocked up - albeit in not so many words.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


He might edit that after tonights ECM. Hotline to the news desk at the Daily Express......

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
06 January 2014 18:48:39

Even though the atlantic will win this battle most likely


someone will get some frontal snow


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECM0-192.GIF?06-0

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Karl Guille
06 January 2014 18:48:55

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECH1-192.GIF?06-0


LOL. Dont worry, Im putting the razor blade away!


 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



JMA, GEM and ECM 12z producing easily the best set of model runs we have seen to date this winter in terms of potential! Still a long way to go but definitely heading in the right direction!!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Quantum
06 January 2014 18:49:05

OK that is pretty interesting I'll admit. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
06 January 2014 18:50:47

When two tribes go to war.....


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECM1-216.GIF?06-0


lets hope the battle lines end up a bit further west

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
idj20
06 January 2014 18:51:07

My turn now!

Looking at 386 hrs on GFS (22nd Jan), the models should have come with a health warning, it is not good for anyone's nerves! Good job it is a million and one light years away in terms of forecast modelling, right at the far reaches of FI rather than at 38 hours away! . . . http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=384&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=
  It appears to be responding to a plotted strong jet stream running through the UK at that time period: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140106/12/384/hgt300.png Again, all miles away in the forecast range where it is like trying to fire an arrow at a target 2 miles away with a strong cross wind while being blind folded and after having drunk ten pints of Special Brew.
  Until then, we have at least 7 to 10 days of typical winter fare (average temperatures and sunshine amounts, however it seems likely rainfall may still be higher than average but without the stormy stuff).

Rather than wishing for cold and snow, I just want things to settle down. I won't rest until GFS latches onto the idea of a more continental flavour . . . and yes, I'm aware that there is more to life than that particular model.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Gooner
06 January 2014 18:51:44

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010612/ECH0-216.GIF?06-0


A battle to occur ????

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Charmhills
06 January 2014 18:52:23

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif


Cold within touching distance!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2014 18:53:56
Nearly a very snowy chart. Some good output tonight

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
06 January 2014 18:54:12

That 216 chart is extremely wintry. Heavy and widespread snow especially but not exclusivly for the north. Parts of low land scotland could get 20cm out of that event, and significantly more for higher ground. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
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