Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Monday January 6th 2014.
All models show a deep depression to the NW of the UK filling slowly over the next 48 hours as it moves slowly NE ending up to the North of Scotland by this time on Wednesday. In addition frontal rain will flirt with the South at times over the next 48 hours enhancing the flooding risk even further in the South. However, strong winds will become less of an issue with time with only moderate Westerly breezes by Thursday with some further rain running West to East across the UK. By the end of the week pressure will of risen strongly to the SE of the UK with drier and quieter weather likely for all for a time.
GFS through the weekend shows quiet and fine weather for many before the unsettled weather returns from the West early next week with rain bearing fronts crossing the UK from the West in what would be if verified another round of deep depressions, intensely so at the end of the run with strong to gale winds again and heavy rain and flooding issues likely again.
The GFS Ensembles look very unsettled and changeable again tonight with rain at times with strong winds too and little likelihood of much in the way of drier weather after the breather of later this week.
UKMO for next Sunday shows High pressure declining away SE early next week as troughs of Low pressure move in from the Atlantic with further unwanted rainfall following the drier interlude early in the weekend.
GEM shows an interesting period from next weekend as it's operational shows Low pressure moving in late next weekend with further rain before the whole system slides SE allowing pressure to rise strongly to the NW of Britain. This would enable winds to swing NE and Low pressure to reside near the Meditteranean with the cold wind giving rise to some wintry weather with snow in places in 10 days time.
NAVGEM declines High pressure away SE too after the weekend as Low pressure to the NW sends troughs back NE over the UK next week with renewed rain, this time probably heaviest towards more NW areas rather than places further South and east.
ECM tonight shows Saturday as the best day of this week when it should be dry and fine under a transient ridge of High pressure. It isn't long before Low pressure troughs swing back in from the West before sliding SE and giving rise to plenty of rain again in the process. then towards the end of the run a new Low over the Western Atlantic send another active trough slowly East across the UK hitting a High pressure block slowly declining across Europe.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show strong signals for the majority of members of the ECM pack to favour a blocking High over Scandinavia at this time point with the UK lying in a SSE flow with Lower pressure troughs close to the West. If this majority verifies then we can look forward to some colder and drier weather but if the fronts to the West come in too close then we could all end up with a lot of cold rain and perhaps some snow.
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The GFS Jet Stream Forecast tonight shows the current flow imploding in a few days time before becoming diffuse and unclear with regard to favoured position before the pattern resets with an incredibly powerful surge of flow shown racing over the Atlantic towards the UK late in the run.
In Summary tonight the pattern is taking a backwards step towards maintaining rather unsettled weather moving into next week and beyond. The Atlantic is shown to weaken considerably later this week with at least a window of drier weather likely towards the weekend before it looks increasingly possible for wet and windy weather to return later though hopefully not to the extremes of recently. There is still a nugget of hope for cold lovers though as both GEM and ECM go for some trough disruption next week meaning an awful lot of cold rain for many as Low pressure slides SE and opens the door to something rather colder behind it ala GEM. However, despite the principal being the same from ECM the Atlantic proves too strong from this run to set up cold Easterlies as the next Low pushes troughs back in from the West on Day 10.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset