its quite normal for the ecm ens to take the theme of the op run. the 12z op was an undercutting run with most split flow jet going south. the ens mean and anomolys reflect that. if the 00z run is more of an over the top run, then expect the ens mean etc to reflect that. however, it does seem that we will get split flow so all bets remain off.
ian F commented earlier that ecm ens were not giving good guidance so i suspect many different clusters present which sort of reflects the gem ens and gefs also (if you take account of its general bias against undercutting).
finally, wrt the meto 30 dayer possible cold patterns, again ian F on nw mentioned that it has nothing to do with the nwp that we see and is to do with another source of guidance. that pretty well convinces me that it must be strat led.
in conclusion, a curates egg of output. take a pin and you have as good a chance as anyone of getting it right. (as long as you arent sticking it a low res gfs op run!!)
andy - how does ukmo perform with a developing situation when it only shows to day 6? do things really develop significantly below T144 ? and gfs ? really? take the bias to over amplification out of the ecm ops and you have a pretty good idea where the output will go. ops to T144 and ens thereafter. gfs? really ?
in any case, the statistics show that ecm performs best followed by ukmo and then the others. you dont need a subjective assessment. there is a proven statistical measurement that confirms it. if gfs were so good, why are noaa hugely overhauling it in april and why do they nearly always prefer the ecm guidance ahead of it?
Originally Posted by: nickl