There is real concern for further flooding across southern England in the next few days with potentially substantial further rainfall to come.
After the heavy showers of today there are three further distinct rainfall events to come in the next 60 hours.
Firstly later tonight and through tomorrow morning in particular we can expect to see further heavy and potentially thundery showers being driven inland from the south coast giving some heavy falls in a short period which will inevitably lead to surface water runoff issues with the ground being saturated.
The second event is tomorrow night as a wave develops to the south on a front which then drifts through the Channel overnight. The heaviest of the rain might just stay offshore but it could easily be a little further north.
Fax chart for 0z Wednesday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif
The final event is Wednesday night into Thursday which looks an even more potent event as a closed circulation low develops associated with the same waving front. The fax chart above also shows a new frontal zone developing with this new low. This could give significant amounts of rain.
Here it is modelled on GFS. The winds will be quite strong on the south coast for a time as well.
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014010612/57-515UK.GIF?06-12
Here is the fax chart for 0z Thursday
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif
Rainfall totals of 40-50mm locally are quite possible in the next 60 hours.
NAE 18z has 30-35mm locally but this only goes up to 18z Wednesday
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/06/basis18/ukuk/rsum/14010818_2_0618.gif
NMM 12z has 40-50mm quite widely in the 72hours from 12z today until 12z Thursday with 60-80mm over some of the very high ground in the south-west and south Wales. Some of that has already fallen of course but the chart does not make for pleasant viewing.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014010612/nmm-25-72-1.png?06-18
I fear the situation for some could get worse before it gets better.
The train companies are already onto this situation. This is the latest posted a short time ago by South West Trains:
"Latest weather forecasts predict that a period of heavy rain and high winds will affect much of our network on Tuesday 7 & Wednesday 8 January. The worst of the weather is expected throughout the afternoon and evening of Wednesday 8 January.
Additional teams will be available to help deal with any fallen trees and flooded areas."
Edited by user
06 January 2014 21:39:05
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