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POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2014 10:27:22

11.4mm since midnight, running total 68.2mm.


Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
ARTzeman
06 January 2014 12:36:02

9.6mm Last 24 hours.  Total so far for the month 42.00mm..






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 January 2014 19:08:41
12mm earlier.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
06 January 2014 21:29:50

There is real concern for further flooding across southern England in the next few days with potentially substantial further rainfall to come.


After the heavy showers of today there are three further distinct rainfall events to come in the next 60 hours.


Firstly later tonight and through tomorrow morning in particular we can expect to see further heavy and potentially thundery showers being driven inland from the south coast giving some heavy falls in a short period which will inevitably lead to surface water runoff issues with the ground being saturated.


The second event is tomorrow night as a wave develops to the south on a front which then drifts through the Channel overnight. The heaviest of the rain might just stay offshore but it could easily be a little further north.

Fax chart for 0z Wednesday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif


The final event is Wednesday night into Thursday which looks an even more potent event as a closed circulation low develops associated with the same waving front. The fax chart above also shows a new frontal zone developing with this new low. This could give significant amounts of rain. 


Here it is modelled on GFS. The winds will be quite strong on the south coast for a time as well.
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014010612/57-515UK.GIF?06-12


Here is the fax chart for 0z Thursday
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif


Rainfall totals of 40-50mm locally are quite possible in the next 60 hours.


NAE 18z has 30-35mm locally but this only goes up to 18z Wednesday
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/06/basis18/ukuk/rsum/14010818_2_0618.gif


NMM 12z has 40-50mm quite widely in the 72hours from 12z today until 12z Thursday with 60-80mm over some of the very high ground in the south-west and south Wales. Some of that has already fallen of course but the chart does not make for pleasant viewing.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014010612/nmm-25-72-1.png?06-18


I fear the situation for some could get worse before it gets better. 


The train companies are already onto this situation. This is the latest posted a short time ago by South West Trains:


"Latest weather forecasts predict that a period of heavy rain and high winds will affect much of our network on Tuesday 7 & Wednesday 8 January. The worst of the weather is expected throughout the afternoon and evening of Wednesday 8 January.


Additional teams will be available to help deal with any fallen trees and flooded areas."

The Professional
06 January 2014 21:58:08


There is real concern for further flooding across southern England in the next few days with potentially substantial further rainfall to come.


___


NAE 18z has 30-35mm locally but this only goes up to 18z Wednesday
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/06/basis18/ukuk/rsum/14010818_2_0618.gif


NMM 12z has 40-50mm quite widely in the 72hours from 12z today until 12z Thursday with 60-80mm over some of the very high ground in the south-west and south Wales. Some of that has already fallen of course but the chart does not make for pleasant viewing.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014010612/nmm-25-72-1.png?06-18


___


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


I quite agree GW - things are already becoming concerning in many areas around here (Winchester) and, tbh, the amount of rain that has fallen is quite staggering.


Per the oft-sighted by me http://www.winchesterweather.org.uk/index.html, Winchester has received 98mm in the first 6 days of January (at time of writing). Adding that to the 163 mm recorded from 13th-31st December, you get to 261 mm in just 25 days. No guarantees that this will happen, but an additional 40mm by the end of this coming weekend would take the total to 300mm in a 31-day periond - exceptional for this location (and unprecedented in my memory).


redmoons
06 January 2014 22:56:03

Here in Watford I am up to 39mm for the 1st 5 days of January, this is the most rain I have recorded for the 1st 5 days of a month here.


The wettest day so far being the 3rd with 12.6mm.


Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





ARTzeman
06 January 2014 23:00:21

4.5mm Today.. Total   44.1mm.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Rob K
06 January 2014 23:09:22
Not quite as wet here as southern parts of Hants but another 19mm in the 24hrs to 6pm today taking the total to 79mm so far this month.

Further heavy downpours since then too so we are well above 80mm in 6 days.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 January 2014 07:08:39
The showers skirted us with 1mm overnight some areas had far more rain.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Rob K
07 January 2014 11:34:01
Another 8mm overnight to 6am and then a tremendous downpour this morning. Must be close to 100mm for the first week of January now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ARTzeman
07 January 2014 12:08:14

4.8mm Today.  Total 48.9mm.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 January 2014 19:11:15
6mm since midnight today.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 January 2014 22:29:14
12mm rain today.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Stormchaser
07 January 2014 23:07:14

It's just struck me that at my west Hants location (not far from Ringwood) the LTA for January of 76.6mm was already met as of midnight last night, just 6 days into the month!


Today has seen around 10mm on top of that.


GFS was predicting 30-40mm for the period, so it just goes to show how much models can underestimate the totals when there's a lot of convection around; they're not good at modelling that effectively and tend to undercook it substantially.


Tomorrow may see a good example of that across S and SE parts, judging by the amount of extra convective precipitation visible on the Met Office projection - which uses model data altered by human input, and often sees regions of higher moisture (hence humidity) being supported and/or enhanced to produce stronger convection than the raw model data comes up with.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Dougie
08 January 2014 00:44:32

54.4mm so far.


Ha'way the lads
Rob K
08 January 2014 01:35:59


The train companies are already onto this situation. This is the latest posted a short time ago by South West Trains:
"Latest weather forecasts predict that a period of heavy rain and high winds will affect much of our network on Tuesday 7 & Wednesday 8 January. The worst of the weather is expected throughout the afternoon and evening of Wednesday 8 January.
Additional teams will be available to help deal with any fallen trees and flooded areas."

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 



It now looks as if the rain will largely miss the south tomorrow, with most of it heading much further north across the Midlands. Having said that there could still be a few mm in places in a short space of time and it doesn't take much to cause surface flooding at the moment.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ARTzeman
08 January 2014 09:48:55

4.8mm. Yesterday. Total  49.2mm. More this afternoon.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
cowman
08 January 2014 21:08:13
8.5mm so far tonight. 31.8mm this week.
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 January 2014 22:43:49
4mm today.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
cowman
09 January 2014 08:28:36
Over night rain 19.1mm
ARTzeman
09 January 2014 11:48:54

2.4mm Yesterday  2.4mm. Today.  Total  53.7mm.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Andy J
09 January 2014 13:36:31

Well after a dry December, a very different scenario here for this month.  Last night's Low delivered 23mm of rain for us, bringing the January total to 42mm.   Already been a wetter month than December 2013 here !


 


 


 


Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.
ARTzeman
10 January 2014 09:51:35

3.3mm. Yesterday.  Total stands at  54.6mm so far.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
schmee
  • schmee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 January 2014 22:27:21
3mm in the last 2 hours.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
mbradshaw
11 January 2014 09:44:19

30.0mm Shulista


52.2mm Portree

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