Model Output Discussion 10/01/14 13:00 onwards >>>>· Page 2

Snowedin3
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 17:25:23

Although any cold weather is unlikely the control 12z shows you that nothing's certain.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=12&mode=0&carte=0

If that was the op run there would more interest

Edited by user 10 January 2014 17:27:09 | Reason: Not specified

Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft

doctormog
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 17:25:30

#27

A good chance of snow on Monday? [sn_clown]

http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Quantum
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 17:27:26

#28

Well I have to say the NAEFS did a damn good job then of forecasting for a 2 week period if the cold spell doesn't come off; and suprisingly, would end up better than the EPS! Perhaps the NAEFS even contains EPS output? Also I am extremely impressed with the CFS at the moment, it had cold air over canada all winter apart from a brief period of moderation in mid january. Still given the low verification stats I'm not taking it as gosbull.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

llamedos
Advanced Member Topic Starter

10 January 2014 17:33:41

#29

A good chance of snow on Monday? Clown

http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Most impressive Doc

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

Rob K
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 17:34:25

#30

Hmm well I was wrong about an ECMish solution!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Russwirral
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 17:56:48

#31

I really dont think we are finished with the easterly (or North Eastery) solution just yet. There are still a few runs from the ensembles going for a cold solution.

Lets see what the 12z Ensembles shows.

Currently 18th Jan seems like the date of change - until then the charts seem to have a solid handle on how things will pan out.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

Hippydave
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:00:25

#32

Flicking through some of the individual GFS members I reckon something like this has a decent chance of coming off. Shows what happens if the pattern doesn't just sink away:-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=264&code=12&mode=0&carte=0

Give it a few days and I think we'll be seeing the OP playing with this idea and a gradual cooling of the ens for London. The 'back to unsettled' signal is an FI mirage in the same way as the briefly explored cold easterly* was.

Good ol' rose tinted spectacles

*Although the 850s on that are actually pretty chilly!

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

Charmhills
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:01:07

#33

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

I see some are still looking for this fake easterly I say give it up and move on.

The Atlantic has won this battle.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Hippydave
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:05:11

#34

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

I see some are still looking for this fake easterly I say give it up and move on.

The Atlantic has won this battle.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Surely the Atlantic winning would be the LPs piling through Norway and beyond

More of a stalemate at the moment if you ask me, with the final evolution still be determined. Small changes in energy distribution will have massive implications down the line imo - something no model is going to be able to get a grip on at any sort of range

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

David M Porter
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:15:05

#35

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

I see some are still looking for this fake easterly I say give it up and move on.

The Atlantic has won this battle.

Originally Posted by: Hippydave

Surely the Atlantic winning would be the LPs piling through Norway and beyond

More of a stalemate at the moment if you ask me, with the final evolution still be determined. Small changes in energy distribution will have massive implications down the line imo - something no model is going to be able to get a grip on at any sort of range

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

I agree. As far as I can see, no model, other than perhaps the GFS, is showing a return to the sort of zonality we've been having recently. I'm not saying that an easterly is definitely going to happen, but at the moment I think what happens from late next week onwards is still very much up in the air.

ECM 12z will be interesting.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:31:36

#36

I really dont think we are finished with the easterly (or North Eastery) solution just yet. There are still a few runs from the ensembles going for a cold solution.

Lets see what the 12z Ensembles shows.

Currently 18th Jan seems like the date of change - until then the charts seem to have a solid handle on how things will pan out.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

Agree with that

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:33:13

#37

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

I see some are still looking for this fake easterly I say give it up and move on.

The Atlantic has won this battle.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011012/ECH1-144.GIF?10-0

Not sure I agree with that ECM 144 doesn't suggest the Atlantic has won

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

jondg14
Guest

10 January 2014 18:35:43

#38

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3505/ECM1-144_zog0.GIF

ECM is interesting. Scandi high rebuilding at 144h with the shortwave flattened out and energy heading up to the West of Greenland.

As said already no cold in the next 5 days but after that there is still a possibility albeit a slim one.

Charmhills
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:36:50

#39

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

The ECM 12z so far.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:39:28

#40

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

The ECM 12z so far.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Comparing the GFS 144 to ECM 144 we are certainly in FI

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011012/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011012/ECH1-144.GIF?10-0

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Snowedin3
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:43:23

#41

Not much rain around on that ECM so far Charmhills?? ://

Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:49:37

#42

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011012/ECH1-216.GIF?10-0

very different to this mornings runs

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:51:53

#43

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

After 21st who knows , still that isn't a surprise

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Arbroath 1320
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:54:17

#44

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

The ECM 12z so far.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Comparing the GFS 144 to ECM 144 we are certainly in FI

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011012/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011012/ECH1-144.GIF?10-0

Originally Posted by: Charmhills

Agreed, there's still little agreement between models on what we can expect from the middle of next week. However, the chances of a cold Easterly blast appear to be waning. It's beginning to look like a non-eventful slide back into Atlantic dominated weather driven on by high heights to our South.

GGTTH

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 18:58:48

#45

2 days ago I had to make a decision on the use of Thermo truck to deliver paint to our warehouse from Denmark at an extra cost of £1,000......................looks like I made the wrong call