Good evening. Here is this evening's report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 10th 2014 lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a weakening cold front crossing the UK with patchy rain continuing to push East across remaining Southern and Eastern areas followed by clearing skies and colder but light NW winds head of a stronger ridge of High pressure than we have seen for quite some time. This brings a dry weekend for many with a frost on Saturday night. However, the pattern remains fluid and further Low pressure troughs move in from the West later on Sunday and extends East to Eastern areas too by Monday with rain followed by showers for many. On Tuesday further Low pressure out to the West sends frontal troughs East again over the South and West in particular with other areas too seeing rain at times.
GFS shows the midweek period with deep Low pressure slow moving across the UK with rain and showers encircling the UK some of it heavy and prolonged in very average temperatures for mid January. Later in the run the Azores High becomes a large feature down to the SW with the Jet Stream rounding the Northern flank of the High across the UK and down over Southern Europe. With time the weather would become less wet but mild for all with Westerly winds bringing a lot of cloud across the UK from the Atlantic with any rain from troughs restricted to Northernmost parts.
The GFS Ensembles have shelved the cold spell now with virtually all members maintaining generally changeable conditions with rain at times in temperatures close to average over all areas in brisk winds at times.
UKMO tonight shows Thursday afternoon's chart with Low pressure positioned near NW Britain with a cyclonic South or SW flow over the UK with rain at times, some heavy being experienced by most if not all areas with temperatures close to average.
GEM keeps Low pressure close to Southern Britain through the middle and end of next week with a continuing risk of heavy rain and showers almost anywhere but more likely in the South as temperatures hold up to average reasonably well. By the end of the run Low pressure remains in control close to the NW with unstable West or NW winds quite strong at times and temperatures close to average though perhaps rather colder later under the NW flow.
NAVGEM shows Low pressure receding away North later leaving a mild and fresh Atlantic Westerly flow across the UK with some rain at times still chiefly in the North and West.
ECM today looks quite different in it's later stages to this morning's run with Low pressure slipping away South after giving us a wet and unsettled week next week only to be replaced by another deep Low sliding East past Northern Scotland towards the end of the run and sending an interval of colder NNW winds and wintry showers down over the UK by the end of next weekend.
The ECM 9 and 10 day Mean Chart suggests a biased suggestion of a trough near the UK with unsettled weather likely in association with it the most likely weather type through this period. A strong Azores High is once more a significant feature with any cold weather nowhere to be seen at this juncture.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream remains in a confused and indeterminate mode over the coming few days before it settles over Southern Europe for a time next week. Later on it is shown to reset North to the North of the UK and towards Northern Europe following a more active Azores Anticyclone through Week 2.
In Summary tonight the dying embers of the projected cold weather has been completely removed tonight with a cocktail of models that all show different synoptics within the same changeable pattern with more unwanted rain at times for all with some short and drier interludes at times too with temperatures never far from average.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY