could we be on the verge of seeing a repeat of the FI we saw last week.  Could we end up with another interesting Easterly scenario.

 

Its possible - FI already looks different, with the jet exiting canada angled more south east towards Spain.

 

Like i said, we have this every year - the end game scenario being modelled and pushed back several times before it really evolves proper.

 

EDIT: infact - seeing a slider low similar to last year.  Interesting.  We dont have the cold air mixed in, but plenty of time for that to develop.... interesting run.

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Yep, if you look closely, the easterly comes and goes between 228 and 252!! 😉

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Not much to cling to at the moment

Any SSW's

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FI goes for the whole of Europe above freezing: - That's rare in January!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.png 

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I didn't think we'd end up with a period of nationwide ice days, even though the ECM ensembles supported it a couple of days bck. It's just so difficult to get those conditions here, and judging by the output tonight even continental Europe with the exception of scandinavia is not in line for anything really cold until you get as far east as Poland/ Ukraine!

But I also don't believe winter is over.

Gooner is joking about SSWs, but our period of exceptionally stormy weather corresponded with a huge, tight, unusually cold strat PV.

It has warmed up and displaced since then, and GFS (which goes the furthest out) doesn't suggest to me it's going to cool down and regroup into the frigid blob covering half the NH that it was throughout December. Some of the recent runs (e.g 0z yesterday, 6 & 12z today) have shown a 3rd wave warming of varying strength albeit at t+ 300h+. A warmer strat means the east to west flow should generally be weaker than it was and the jet less stable.

If the strat is warmer it more likely that we'll get cold incursions and less likely we'll get stormy weather.

the winters of the late 90s and early noughties were about long periods with temperatures which remained double digit at night, let alone during the day.

I don't see a freeze up on the horizon, but I don't see daytime temps of 14c falling to 10c at night either.

Do others really see that??????????

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-264.png?18

The control is a bit different on the 18z

 

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As long as it dries out Marcus it can be as mild as it likes.

I'm looking for spring now!

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Yes, most did Gavin.

I have checked my records going back to 1991 and only 2006/07 had no day with lying snow in Penrith by the 10th January.

This winter is turning out memorable for all the wrong reasons.

Andy

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I dont know why matey , with the Atlantic bossing it, your cricket pitches will be under that river at Minster

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Easterly options still cropping up in the ENS, brief but there all the same

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Haha....that's exactly where they are at the moment. I think it's about 2ft deep at present.

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Next weeks cold spell can now go into the draw marked 'failed ECM Easterlies'

Trouble is after 3 years of ghost ECM easterlies the draw is now full!

The lesson from this week is that if the MetO doesn't back it up on their MRF it probably will not happen, they are after all the experts.

Andy

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London ens

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

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If anything, compared to the last month or so, the sheer variability of models over the past week is the straw to clutch onto... Do we really think there's a high likelihood we'll get something close to the t+168 in a week's time given present form?

Andrew

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Very true Andrew

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Which is what made some of the comments in here a couple of days ago so laughable. Amateur enthusiasts lambasting the MetO for not picking up and recognising an easterly that was never more than a coin flip bet in all but one of two analysis' that made it seem likely rather than a possibility.

Naturally I'm happy, but by the same token people talking about winter being over on Jan 11th is ludicrous.

I'd put good money on a snowy spell when the weather is supposed to be moving into a spring pattern. I do tend to think this winter is going to be a crap one on the whole for coldies though, but at some stage there will be a cold snap with some snow around. There almost always is.

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The FAX. looks good at t120.

Ridging highs, mid Atlantc?.

North and South.

Low pressure to the East.

I think u never know, even last years winter wasn't up to much at this point but when the pattern changed it just did, there has been a hell of a lot more variability with the Uk climate of late, but this years different as there is nothing there during the first half whick would be abnormal in even a late 90's winter, however lets see what happens, theres time for some interest but business has to pick up soon I agree.. 

 

Tom

^^^ After a heavy night out (finished January exams!), I feel like I'm hallucinating...

The 00z GFS won't make many people smile I'm afraid. Weirdly most of next week's rain has ended up focused on just two days - Wednesday and Saturday. That's not really including convective precipitation though.

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Pretty unsettled, if not the waterfest of late looking at what's available at the moment.

The latest GFS ensembles do not show any extended dry period although they look considerably less wet than a fortnight ago!

Whilst heights build over Eastern Europe/Scandi I think we need to watch and be patient. Those synoptics are likely to result in a lot of cold pooling which MAY affect us down the line although there are no supported signs as yet

On the face of it few reasons to be cheerful this morning with op runs of METO,ECM,GFS and GEM keeping the easterlies at bay.

However all the models are crossing the first hudle of buildinga Scandi HO generally around 96-120h.None of themhowever pass the second test of bringing in easterlies.The GFS ensembles offer a ray of hope.At 144h 55% manage to bring in an easterly flow,albeit quickly snuffed out.

ENS 2,3,4,7,8,10,11,14,15,18 are worth looking at.

The overall GEFS 0h stats,zonal:anticyclonic flow are 

144h 45:55,(50:50,50:50,10:90,70:300

240h 80:20 (50:50,50:50,20:80,40:60)

360h 70:30 (85:15,75:25,75:25,65:35)

 

Who knows what is going to happen based on this morning's output. Subtle changes could easily "reintroduce" cold air from the east/northeast. However it seems equally possible that other changes could lead to a continuation of the rather unsettled conditions and wipe out any real chance of cold for a while.

I guess a third option is that the current outlook may be the one that actually materialises, but given the differences in the op runs' output it would be tough to say which scenario is most likely.

In other words, I have no idea. Perhaps things may be clearer by this evening but I doubt it.

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Yes, there still remains support for a Scandy High to build within the next 7 days. So, in 6 days' time, its core is a tasty 1035. Interestingly, some of the models like UKMO seem to quieten down the Atlantic at the same time.

Yet, at the moment, there doesn't seem to be sufficient northern blocking for the High to anchor to and maintain its position, and the Jet is forecast to strengthen later on from North America.

It's perhaps a case of so close yet so far, with an easterly influence in tantalising proximity, but without many friends, and fighting against the favourite Attlantic heavyweight. Still, 6 days is still a long way off, and perhaps the SH won't be as easy to budge as the models currently suggest... time will tell!

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Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 11th 2014.

All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing slowly East across the UK today and tonight with fine and sunny weather following any early rain clearing the SE. Also the showers in the NW, wintry in hills will also clear later. Through tomorrow the models show the approach of a trough of Low pressure from a mid Atlantic depression bringing increasing Southerly winds and rain across Western districts first and Eastern areas overnight Sunday to be followed by a showery SW flow for Monday. The showers may be heavy and thundery in the SW but more scattered elsewhere. Through Monday night a further trough crosses all areas with further heavy rain with a return to showery weather on Tuesday. By Wednesday Low pressure is shown in close proximity to the UK from all models with further rain and showers a risk for all especially in the South and West. Temperatures towards midweek look like staying largely close to average with any slightly below average values restricted to the far North and NE.

GFS shows a UK trough continuing in situ for the rest of the week. However, the Azores High will become very strong later and gradually the influence from Low pressure will become more restricted towards Northern areas as the Jet Stream shifts North again where rain at times will continue in strong Westerly winds while Southern areas see longer drier spells and rather cloudy weather also under Westerly breezes with temperatures close to or somewhat above average for late January.

The GFS Ensembles reflect the above picture quite well with some wet weather for many next week giving way to somewhat drier weather with less rainfall especially across the South as High pressure to the South gives relatively mild weather given the time of year.

UKMO closes it's run on Friday with a large and complex Low structure across the UK and away to the North of the UK too maintaining the rainfall issues for many areas on a regular basis through the end of next week in average temperatures and winds that will be fresh but not troubling.

GEM today keeps Low pressure over or near the UK throughout next week with plenty of wind and rain at times. Very late in the run the balance of pressure rises somewhat from the SW but insufficiently so to prevent cloud and rain from Atlantic troughs to continue to move in on Westerly breezes and average temperatures at the end of the run.

NAVGEM this morning shows Low pressure somewhat further North as early as later next week but the weather would remain no less unsettled with rain at times from active weather systems moving East over the UK in strong winds at times too and once more very average temperatures for January.

ECM today also show all of next week and weekend as very unsettled as Low pressure remains close by over or just to the South or West of the UK. This means these areas will see the wettest conditions with further flooding issues likely later next week. In the far reaches of the run this model too shows signs of rising pressure from the SW and while changeable weather looks likely to persist the weather would warm up as Atlantic Westerlies between High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North looks like developing in response to a Jet stream moving back North.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows a trend for the UK trough over next week to move away slowly East with the Azores High likely to become a major player in the UK weather at the end of the month as it gradually pushes Low pressure further North and brings mild Atlantic air and some rain at times across the UK with most of the rain likely in the North later with at last some drier and benign conditions in the South hinted at.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream forecast is for the flow to continue to flow East at fairly low latitudes currently in a poorly defined state before it strengthens over the Atlantic next week and on across Southern Europe through next week. Longer term it is shown to move North over the Atlantic around an Azores High while splitting with one arm staying over Southern Europe while a Northern arm sets up across the Northern Atlantic and over to Scandinavia later.

In Summary today the weather typified of Winter 2013/14 so far continues on this morning for another week to 10 days. While the stormy weather of the Christmas and New Year period looks less likely there will still be a lot of rain for some areas, especially in the South and West as Low pressure remains in close proximity to the UK over the next week to 10 days. Longer term the trend is shown for the Jet flow to shift North as the Azores High becomes a strong feature with a Westerly flow shown later by some output. Depressions are then shown to be sent further North with something of a North/South split possible with the most rain returning to the North while mild weather looks like being the order of the day everywhere later under Westerly breezes. Any chances of significant cold anytime within the next two weeks anywhere look very slim this morning and with an Azores High very strong in two weeks time I would suggest this could be extended even longer.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011100/UN120-21.GIF?11-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011100/UN144-21.GIF?11-06

Anything could happen from this point

 

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