On the face of it few reasons to be cheerful this morning with op runs of METO,ECM,GFS and GEM keeping the easterlies at bay.
However all the models are crossing the first hudle of buildinga Scandi HO generally around 96-120h.None of themhowever pass the second test of bringing in easterlies.The GFS ensembles offer a ray of hope.At 144h 55% manage to bring in an easterly flow,albeit quickly snuffed out.
ENS 2,3,4,7,8,10,11,14,15,18 are worth looking at.
The overall GEFS 0h stats,zonal:anticyclonic flow are
144h 45:55,(50:50,50:50,10:90,70:300
240h 80:20 (50:50,50:50,20:80,40:60)
360h 70:30 (85:15,75:25,75:25,65:35)
Originally Posted by: roger63