Rest of the ECM 12z is poor if you like unsettled weather.

Roll on Spring please.

Originally Posted by: cowman 

Has it not arrived then

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Not yet - we're still in autumn.

Horrendous 12z's across the board.

The Scandanavian high that, in the best runs yesterday, ridged toward Greenland, gets toppled into mainland Europe. This stops the progress of the Atlantic low SE'wards. Greece looks a bit chilly

ECM remains the odd one out in terms of sliding the energy out west, sending towards the far-western Med. and throwing up air from a long way south of us. That sort of thing belongs in summer!

The other models slide the LP right into the UK instead. Trough disruption of some sort does seem to be universally agreed upon, but beyond that things become unclear.

There's room for adjustments taking all of the second bout of energy SE with none going NE, which would allow the block to remain at higher latitudes and try to build west, but that seems to be the last source of hope for those looking for continental cold in the next 10 days.

Is it me, or does anyone else find something not quite right about this statement?  

Lol I just realised and changed it.

   I was confused

Good evening. Here is this evening's report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 10th 2014 lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a weakening cold front crossing the UK with patchy rain continuing to push East across remaining Southern and Eastern areas followed by clearing skies and colder but light NW winds head of a stronger ridge of High pressure than we have seen for quite some time. This brings a dry weekend for many with a frost on Saturday night. However, the pattern remains fluid and further Low pressure troughs move in from the West later on Sunday and extends East to Eastern areas too by Monday with rain followed by showers for many. On Tuesday further Low pressure out to the West sends frontal troughs East again over the South and West in particular with other areas too seeing rain at times.

GFS shows the midweek period with deep Low pressure slow moving across the UK with rain and showers encircling the UK some of it heavy and prolonged in very average temperatures for mid January. Later in the run the Azores High becomes a large feature down to the SW with the Jet Stream rounding the Northern flank of the High across the UK and down over Southern Europe. With time the weather would become less wet but mild for all with Westerly winds bringing a lot of cloud across the UK from the Atlantic with any rain from troughs restricted to Northernmost parts.

The GFS Ensembles have shelved the cold spell now with virtually all members maintaining generally changeable conditions with rain at times in temperatures close to average over all areas in brisk winds at times.

UKMO tonight shows Thursday afternoon's chart with Low pressure positioned near NW Britain with a cyclonic South or SW flow over the UK with rain at times, some heavy being experienced by most if not all areas with temperatures close to average.

GEM keeps Low pressure close to Southern Britain through the middle and end of next week with a continuing risk of heavy rain and showers almost anywhere but more likely in the South as temperatures hold up to average reasonably well. By the end of the run Low pressure remains in control close to the NW with unstable West or NW winds quite strong at times and temperatures close to average though perhaps rather colder later under the NW flow.

NAVGEM shows Low pressure receding away North later leaving a mild and fresh Atlantic Westerly flow across the UK with some rain at times still chiefly in the North and West.

ECM today looks quite different in it's later stages to this morning's run with Low pressure slipping away South after giving us a wet and unsettled week next week only to be replaced by another deep Low sliding East past Northern Scotland towards the end of the run and sending an interval of colder NNW winds and wintry showers down over the UK by the end of next weekend.

The ECM 9 and 10 day Mean Chart suggests a biased suggestion of a trough near the UK with unsettled weather likely in association with it the most likely weather type through this period. A strong Azores High is once more a significant feature with any cold weather nowhere to be seen at this juncture.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream remains in a confused and indeterminate mode over the coming few days before it settles over Southern Europe for a time next week. Later on it is shown to reset North to the North of the UK and towards Northern Europe following a more active Azores Anticyclone through Week 2.

In Summary tonight the dying embers of the projected cold weather has been completely removed tonight with a cocktail of models that all show different synoptics within the same changeable pattern with more unwanted rain at times for all with some short and drier interludes at times too with temperatures never far from average.

A real late 90's classic this is turning out to be.
Just waiting for the 'but '47 didn't start until 23rd Jan' comment LOL.

Next.

Never mind 1947, winter 85/86 saw no real cold until the end of Jan/start of Feb, and then many of us know what came after that.

Fine by me.

when you look at this - you can see how the cold spell has been cancelled.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

I was being a tad facetious it has to be said

Its so easy to get sucked in by the models when they are showing an easterly to arrive in 168 or 144 hours.  Its only when there is cross model agreement at around t96 that any confidence or certainty can be invested in the outcome.

Of easterlies modelled at t168 I would say around 1 in 3 or 4 make it to actuality.

Surely the lesson to learn is to err on the side of caution.

The final third of the month is up for grabs, as is the whole of the month of February and the first half of March if its one disruptive snowfall you are after.  Thats another 8 weeks.

Conversely if its a decent spring day you are after then maybe this will be the year for an early frollick with the lambs?

I like the snow but there's so much fascination in almost all weather types.

WI

Gavin, I've been meaning to ask.
Have you by any chance got shares in 'jp2webdesign'?

Actually, I think all the late 90's winters had had fairly widespread frost/snow by this point.

ECM: "Abandon hope all ye who desire cold"

GFS: "ZONALITY, UNLIIIMITED ZONALITY"

Me: "When will the cold come, what will I do?"

NAVGEM: "Quite frankly my dear, I don't give a damn"

As you say Martin the dying embers of the projected cold weather have been completely removed tonight.

But is there still a chance that a puff of wind in the right diretion could reignite the a cold spell.

 To introduce an  easterly flow there are a number of hurdles there are a number of hurdles to jump.

Hurdle 1 is the setting up of a Scandi HP.Looking at the 12h GFS ensembles  between 108h and 144h Wed Midnight to Thursday lunch 80% of the ENS achieve this.So hurdle 1 has a high cahnce of being achieved.

Hurdle 2 is introducing an easterly flow across around 40% of ENS achieve this.

Hurdle 3 is keeping the flow going and here the figures collapse to only 20% still having it place by 240h.

So lets take it stage by stage before a final wrote off.

Finally the evidence of GFS performance in last January cold spell showe dtat it wa snot until 96h before the actual  introduction of easterlies that GFS made  the right non- zonal call.

So oodds are still strongly against cold being reignited but patience patience.

.......including frolicking with lambs. 

Roger that!  Agreed - wait til there is cross model agreement at 96 hours .Before that "deny yourself everything" (with apologies to Bernard Breslaw)

Mary had a little lamb

'Twas always full of frolicks

She threw it up, into the air

And caught it by its.....feet