Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 12th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show another period of unsettled weather knocking on the door of the West as I type with a trough of Low pressure moving East across the UK later today and tonight with a spell of rain moving over all areas with clear spells and showers overnight. Tomorrow shows another trough moving East through the day with more extensive showers crossing most areas perhaps heavy with hail and thunder in the SW. By Tuesday a weak ridge is shown to cross Eastwards with sunshine and a largely dry window of weather through the day. However, by midweek Low pressure deepens to the NW and brings strong winds and rain NE across all areas through the day. Throughout this period temperatures will be close to average but cold enough at times for some snow over Northern high hills and mountains.

GFS then shows the latter end of the week remaining unsettled and sometimes wet as the model shows Low pressure persisting over or near the UK in largely Westerly winds never too strong but never too warm either. In the second half of the run today the weather still remains unsettled as further Low pressure moves ESE across the North before a system moves more directly SE across Britain and into Europe with pressure rising from the NW with a cold NE flow developing in the South at the end of the run with wintry showers and sharp frosts over the North.

The GFS Ensembles show the wet January persisting with Low pressure after Low pressure continuing to flow across the Atlantic and the UK maintaining the very tight and average range between the members with regard to uppers and offering little chance of cold and snow.

UKMO closes it's run on Day 6 with Low pressure slow moving and straddled down over Western Britain with a Southerly drift for many and troughs also embedded in the flow with rain, heavy at times commonplace especially towards the South and West, just where it is not needed.

GEM today shows the unsettled flow persisting over the UK under Low pressure or a Westerly flow in association with Low pressure to the North. This would mean a continuation of wet and sometimes windy weather throughout the latter section of the run.

NAVGEM today shows the UK as still the home to troughs of Low pressure ambling in from the Atlantic and stalling somewhat with rain at times in temperatures close to or perhaps a little below average, the latter more likely over the North and NE.

ECM today also shows changeable weather with rain at times in temperatures close to average under a persistent trough of Low pressure lying down over the UK. A window of drier weather is shown towards Day 10 as a ridge crosses East but the next trough is shown crossing the Atlantic to reach the  West and NW of the UK soon after the term of the run.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart today have declined away from last night's ridging with both charts indicating the most likely option being generally a Westerly flow with a continuation of rain at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream remains the reason for this continued unsettled pattern as it continues to pump across the Atlantic firstly to the South of the UK and Southern Europe before moving North to cross the UK later in the output.

In Summary today the weather looks almost certain to stay unsettled for the foreseeable future and sometimes thoroughly wet as Low pressure areas become strung out over the UK later this week before we probably drift into a more mobile Atlantic Westerly flow later in the run. As a result temperatures never look like being far from the seasonal average though it may feel somewhat chilly at times in the breeze and rain. There remains very little scope in the synoptic patterns as shown this morning for any drift into anything remotely very cold and wintry anytime soon and certainly not within the next 10-14 days.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011206/gfsnh-0-138.png?6

Shame how it goes wrong from here. We need now to wait for the effects of the SSW if it really happens

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011206/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

HP desperately trying to edge in

Good point there Saint - one big problem when that happens is that you get an awful lot of anticyclonic cloudy gunk - and that is awful.

interesting run. At least it wont be mild!

I feel this cold spell failure is a massively missed opportunity. Had the block to the NE been more influential the active atlantic would have benefiited those wishing for proper cold and wintry weather by throwing the jet and attendent low pressures on a more southerly track.

The block has failed..the atlantic remains strong with the likelihood of a gradual erosion of heights with time from the north.

Lets hope the Azores High can now save the day. Mild and dry is preferable for many.

7-10 days of wet and zonal conditions after this cool and wet depressing week ahead is not needed. 

The jet pattern does become pretty unusual in our neck of the woods in 4-6 days time, so I wouldn't be surprised to see little in the way of consistency with regard to those troughs swooping south.

There's a lot of WAA to higher latitudes next week, but it keeps being modelled to head NE rather than N or NW, which means that the block is pushed SE a bit rather than being supported closer to our shores.

This morning I'm wondering whether we might see new peak river levels occur next Friday, as a fair dose of rain from the middle part of the week drains in - after all, 9mm over the past 72 hours has been enough to sustain the River Avon at the highest level since 2002... that's groundwater flows for you. With a lot of standing water still around, the groundwater flows must be exceptional at the moment!

some unusually cold air spilling across the Atlantic

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011206/gfsnh-1-264.png?6

another interesting FI with a scandi trough

perhaps we must look north instead of east for our first cold snap of the season

GFS progged rainfall for the week ahead 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014011206/168-777UK.GIF?12-6

#

But still in the minority I woud say

Only compared to the last 4 years though.

In saying that sharp frosts were rare last year

Cold rain!

This winter is a write-off and that it would be was apparent a month ago. A westerly QBO, combined with a strong vortex and a horribly positive NAO were always going to scupper any chances of a decent winter.

Next winter may be better - the QBO will be in an easterly phase, which provides more potential for vortex disruption and weakens the jet in any case.

This winter gets a thumbs down, minus ten - even if we do get a cold snap towards the end of February, it won't alter that. This winter was a true throwback to the nineties and reminds us just how awful the winter can be in the British Isles.

some unusually cold air spilling across the Atlantic http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011206/gfsnh-1-264.png?6 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Cold rain! This winter is a write-off and that it would be was apparent a month ago. A westerly QBO, combined with a strong vortex and a horribly positive NAO were always going to scupper any chances of a decent winter. Next winter may be better - the QBO will be in an easterly phase, which provides more potential for vortex disruption and weakens the jet in any case. This winter gets a thumbs down, minus ten - even if we do get a cold snap towards the end of February, it won't alter that. This winter was a true throwback to the nineties and reminds us just how awful the winter can be in the British Isles.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Hardly "awful". A lot of rain yes, but the vast majority of the population would prefer mild weather. I certainly haven't missed the nagging cold of last winter.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Actually was speaking to people at work - 9 out of 10 would prefer it colder and drier!! Especially after floods etc. If It rains you just get wet - you can't do much in rain, but if it's colder all you need to do is wrap up....simple! :-)

Some of the GEFS members are still interesting. This is the best of them

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-1-1-192.png?6

Control run is promising at this point

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-156.png?6

Looks good if it happens...Fingers crossed..

I was talking about the UK nation in general Marcus..particularly those millions affected by the dire flooding situation.

Not the couple of dozen weirdo cold weather obsessives here on TWO.  .

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

IMBY then Rob, because frosts last year weren't that frequent here

Fair comment Steve...on both counts