Model Output Discussion 10/01/14 13:00 onwards >>>>· Page 10

Charmhills
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 13:15:03

#226

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Cheers Gav.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

cowman
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 13:16:47

#227

Hi all,
Here's today's video update;
Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..
http://www.gavsweathervids.com
Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Thanks Gav.

Gooner
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 13:18:41

#228

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Thanks Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Quantum
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 13:45:42

#229

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Thanks Gav

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Although I don't think there are any warm januaries and then frigid februaries; i.e <0C CETs.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

idj20
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 14:00:23

#230

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Thanks Gav

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Although I don't think there are any warm januaries and then frigid februaries; i.e <0C CETs.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

I think that happened in 1986.

Folkestone Harbour.

sriram
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 14:08:45

#231

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Thanks Gavin

A very interesting and informative video. Just proves that things can change dramatically. As you say Jan is pretty much written off now, and I reckon if we dont see something wintery by the 10th Feb - we can start to write this winter off for good - at least we can be in with a shout of coming close to the mildest winter on record - definitely in the top 5 mildest winters of all time for sure

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 14:12:32

#232

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Thanks Gav

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Although I don't think there are any warm januaries and then frigid februaries; i.e <0C CETs.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

I don't think that is correct - I can recall winters from the past which only really started in February. The reason is that February is the winter month when vortex disruption is most likely to occur as the sun starts to have an effect on the Polar regions, leading to Strat warming.

New world order coming.

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 14:14:54

#233

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: idj20

Thanks Gav

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Although I don't think there are any warm januaries and then frigid februaries; i.e <0C CETs.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I think that happened in 1986.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Couldn't resist replying to this one.

January 1986 CET 3.5C

February 1986 CET -1.1C

That cannot be described as a warm January by any means really.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
Guest

12 January 2014 14:45:16

#234

Frosts counted in Cental Leicester, West End... 4
Last night and night before, both -0.5C

One in Dec -0.2C
One in Nov -1.0C

Just trying to find the Nov & Dec dates.... all recorded unshielded at height of 2 metres.

VSC

Edited by user 12 January 2014 14:48:14 | Reason: error

JACKO4EVER
Guest

12 January 2014 15:14:02

#235

Hi all,
Here's today's video update;
Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..
http://www.gavsweathervids.com
Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: sriram

Thanks Gavin
A very interesting and informative video. Just proves that things can change dramatically. As you say Jan is pretty much written off now, and I reckon if we dont see something wintery by the 10th Feb - we can start to write this winter off for good - at least we can be in with a shout of coming close to the mildest winter on record - definitely in the top 5 mildest winters of all time for sure

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Cheers Gav, great video. From a personal point of view I am now thinking this could go down as a classic mild winter, just a shame about the horrendous winds and recent rainfall. It would take a seismic shift of huge proportions to obtain the slightly colder than average winter now that some were hoping and predicting. Current January CET running at 7.0 - WOW!!

tinybill
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 15:24:39

#236

I feel this cold spell failure is a massively missed opportunity. Had the block to the NE been more influential the active atlantic would have benefiited those wishing for proper cold and wintry weather by throwing the jet and attendent low pressures on a more southerly track.

The block has failed..the atlantic remains strong with the likelihood of a gradual erosion of heights with time from the north.

Lets hope the Azores High can now save the day. Mild and dry is preferable for many.

7-10 days of wet and zonal conditions after this cool and wet depressing week ahead is not needed.

well looking at the models no let up at all looks like a very wet week ahead not good news for the flooded areas

Originally Posted by: Gooner

But still in the minority I woud say

Originally Posted by: Gusty

I was talking about the UK nation in general Marcus..particularly those millions affected by the dire flooding situation.

Not the couple of dozen weirdo cold weather obsessives here on TWO. .

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Fair comment Steve...on both counts

Originally Posted by: Gusty

Quantum
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 15:43:44

#237

Hi all, Here's today's video update; Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't.. http://www.gavsweathervids.com Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Thanks Gavin A very interesting and informative video. Just proves that things can change dramatically. As you say Jan is pretty much written off now, and I reckon if we dont see something wintery by the 10th Feb - we can start to write this winter off for good - at least we can be in with a shout of coming close to the mildest winter on record - definitely in the top 5 mildest winters of all time for sure

Originally Posted by: sriram

Cheers Gav, great video. From a personal point of view I am now thinking this could go down as a classic mild winter, just a shame about the horrendous winds and recent rainfall. It would take a seismic shift of huge proportions to obtain the slightly colder than average winter now that some were hoping and predicting. Current January CET running at 7.0 - WOW!!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

A CET more characturistic of Autumn or Spring than winter.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Sasa
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 15:48:53

#238

Hi all, Here's today's video update; Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't.. http://www.gavsweathervids.com Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Thanks Gavin A very interesting and informative video. Just proves that things can change dramatically. As you say Jan is pretty much written off now, and I reckon if we dont see something wintery by the 10th Feb - we can start to write this winter off for good - at least we can be in with a shout of coming close to the mildest winter on record - definitely in the top 5 mildest winters of all time for sure

Originally Posted by: sriram

Cheers Gav, great video. From a personal point of view I am now thinking this could go down as a classic mild winter, just a shame about the horrendous winds and recent rainfall. It would take a seismic shift of huge proportions to obtain the slightly colder than average winter now that some were hoping and predicting. Current January CET running at 7.0 - WOW!!

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

If that verifies I reckon we could be in for the mild winnter and awful cold spring which would be in my view absolutelly dreadful.

Kingston Upon Thames

Quantum
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 16:00:00

#239

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011200/UW144-21.GIF?12-06

UKMO isn't terrible, there are any number of ways that this chart at T-0h could end up with a cold spell.

And for those that want a bit more hope.

The best model in the universe's view on the strat

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014011206/navgemnh-7-144.png?12-11

Edited by user 12 January 2014 16:01:13 | Reason: Not specified

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 16:20:38

#240

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

Similar to the 06z. perhaps the azores can ridge north and help us out

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Sevendust
Guest

12 January 2014 16:20:49

#241

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger

Thanks Gav

Originally Posted by: idj20

Although I don't think there are any warm januaries and then frigid februaries; i.e <0C CETs.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

I think that happened in 1986.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Couldn't resist replying to this one.

January 1986 CET 3.5C

February 1986 CET -1.1C

That cannot be described as a warm January by any means really.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Try 1983 although it wasn't a frigid Feb it had a lengthy cold spell

Edit - Jan 6.7 / Feb 1.7

Edited by user 12 January 2014 16:25:20 | Reason: Not specified

David M Porter
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 16:24:36

#242

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum

Thanks Gav

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Although I don't think there are any warm januaries and then frigid februaries; i.e <0C CETs.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I don't think that is correct - I can recall winters from the past which only really started in February. The reason is that February is the winter month when vortex disruption is most likely to occur as the sun starts to have an effect on the Polar regions, leading to Strat warming.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Some people may well argue that last winter only began to get going properly during February, as it was during that month that the synoptic set-up that led to the freezing weather last March really began to take hold. We did have something of a colder spell during the middle of last January but the atlantic then returned for a while at the end of Jan/start of Feb. It was during Feb when the blocking pattern really took hold IIRC.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 16:28:51

#243

GFS 12z Run down, Above Normal 850 hPa and 500 hPa Temperatures, Low Pressure looks in General Control, ether Heavy rain or heavy Showers, some sunny spells, Mostly Cyclonic windy or Light to Moderate winds from SW in General, some days cold but most days above the Normal Jan Temp. Range day and night.

Upto T144hrs to next Saturday 12z, GFS 12z run.

Bigger pattern Zonal with NW and N Atlantic through UK and West to NW Norwegian Sea Iceland and W SW S Greenland in Genral SW flow with direct PV Low pressure moving from the West through N and E across to UK and all of West and NW Europe half- mostly less cold over many parts further out in West and Central mid N Atlantic- not conductive to provide any cold or any wintry weather for the UK, but Friday and Saturday turns colder with some showers turning to sleet over the higher ground and hills in Central and Northern UK.

Very much Active positive NAO N Atlantic theme!.

Edited by user 12 January 2014 16:35:23 | Reason: Unspecified

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Gooner
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 16:33:19

#244

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

Similar to the 06z. perhaps the azores can ridge north and help us out

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011212/gfsnh-0-192.png?12

Looks like a LP dominated run to me

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Arbroath 1320
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 16:35:41

#245

Wow, what a retreat from the Scandi/arctic block in the GFS 12z compared to runs over recent days where there was a standoff projected. The Atlantic spurred on by the strong Azores High just bulldozes the block out of the way in jig time. Over progressive or a trend-setter I wonder?

GGTTH