Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 12th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show another period of unsettled weather knocking on the door of the West as I type with a trough of Low pressure moving East across the UK later today and tonight with a spell of rain moving over all areas with clear spells and showers overnight. Tomorrow shows another trough moving East through the day with more extensive showers crossing most areas perhaps heavy with hail and thunder in the SW. By Tuesday a weak ridge is shown to cross Eastwards with sunshine and a largely dry window of weather through the day. However, by midweek Low pressure deepens to the NW and brings strong winds and rain NE across all areas through the day. Throughout this period temperatures will be close to average but cold enough at times for some snow over Northern high hills and mountains.
GFS then shows the latter end of the week remaining unsettled and sometimes wet as the model shows Low pressure persisting over or near the UK in largely Westerly winds never too strong but never too warm either. In the second half of the run today the weather still remains unsettled as further Low pressure moves ESE across the North before a system moves more directly SE across Britain and into Europe with pressure rising from the NW with a cold NE flow developing in the South at the end of the run with wintry showers and sharp frosts over the North.
The GFS Ensembles show the wet January persisting with Low pressure after Low pressure continuing to flow across the Atlantic and the UK maintaining the very tight and average range between the members with regard to uppers and offering little chance of cold and snow.
UKMO closes it's run on Day 6 with Low pressure slow moving and straddled down over Western Britain with a Southerly drift for many and troughs also embedded in the flow with rain, heavy at times commonplace especially towards the South and West, just where it is not needed.
GEM today shows the unsettled flow persisting over the UK under Low pressure or a Westerly flow in association with Low pressure to the North. This would mean a continuation of wet and sometimes windy weather throughout the latter section of the run.
NAVGEM today shows the UK as still the home to troughs of Low pressure ambling in from the Atlantic and stalling somewhat with rain at times in temperatures close to or perhaps a little below average, the latter more likely over the North and NE.
ECM today also shows changeable weather with rain at times in temperatures close to average under a persistent trough of Low pressure lying down over the UK. A window of drier weather is shown towards Day 10 as a ridge crosses East but the next trough is shown crossing the Atlantic to reach the West and NW of the UK soon after the term of the run.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart today have declined away from last night's ridging with both charts indicating the most likely option being generally a Westerly flow with a continuation of rain at times for all.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream remains the reason for this continued unsettled pattern as it continues to pump across the Atlantic firstly to the South of the UK and Southern Europe before moving North to cross the UK later in the output.
In Summary today the weather looks almost certain to stay unsettled for the foreseeable future and sometimes thoroughly wet as Low pressure areas become strung out over the UK later this week before we probably drift into a more mobile Atlantic Westerly flow later in the run. As a result temperatures never look like being far from the seasonal average though it may feel somewhat chilly at times in the breeze and rain. There remains very little scope in the synoptic patterns as shown this morning for any drift into anything remotely very cold and wintry anytime soon and certainly not within the next 10-14 days.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset