In fairness to ECM the mean charts last night did not in any way support the operational's handle on events so I am not at all surprised to see it fall back into an Atlantic based pattern today, However, as long as that cold pool out East remains there we could well see more isolated output suggesting an 'Easterly' like last night's ECM did but until there is considerably more support from the rest of the models and ensemble data in general (i.e 50%+) then I would treat them with speculation.

Good morning. Here is this morning's guide through the output from the big 5 NWP models for today Tuesday January 14th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models continue the changeable theme of weather for the next week or so. Low pressure remains in control of the weather though a ridge of High pressure crossing East today will give a dry and fine day for many with an early frost under light winds. Tonight a warm front crosses East with rain and drizzle for all before the cold front follows tomorrow with further outbreaks of rain. Temperatures will become mild melting hill snow settled over Northern Britain. Through the remainder of the week and weekend Low pressure remains close to NW Britain with showers or longer spells of rain in all areas and temperatures never far from average in mostly South or SW winds. Further flooding issues are a risk in the South and West in particular.

GFS then shows a drier and colder interlude early in the week being quickly replaced by strong winds and more unsettled weather with spells of rain and showers at times for the rest of the period. It may feel rather cold at times especially in the North with some snow on higher ground at times.

The GFS Ensembles remain tightly packed in agreement on average temperatures in an Atlantic based pattern throughout the run this morning. All areas remain at risk of further rain and showers throughout the period with no prospect of any significant change to drier or colder conditions anytime soon.

UKMO closes it's run next Monday with Low pressure well established to the NW of Britain with an unstable Westerly airflow over the UK carrying alternating spells of rain and showers mixed with short drier spells in temperatures close to average.

GEM today shows more settled conditions developing next week as pressure builds from the SW with High pressure over the UK by Day 10 with frost and fog by night and some dry and bright days with sunshine. Though improvements in the South start quite early next week things take rather longer over Northern Britain.

NAVGEM has no such improvements shown with Low pressure continuing to rule the roost with Westerly winds carrying further troughs and attendant rainfall quickly East across the UK followed by showers in temperatures close to or a little below average with some hill snow possible in the north from the showery spells.

ECM today shows a very changeable pattern next week and after a brief drier and colder interlude to start the week next Monday the weather becomes unsettled and windy with spells of rain and showers again as Low pressure moves across close to the North with strong Westerly winds in average temperatures once more.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a similar pattern as last night pulling the pattern slightly East while maintaining the bias towards Low pressure to the NW with Low pressure troughing lying SE down across the East of the UK and North Sea with further rain at times for all the most likely result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

The Jet Stream continues to maintain it's theme of crossing the Atlantic, moving SE to the SW of the UK then East across Southern Europe for some considerable time yet. Later the trend seems for it to tilt more to a East or NE direction across the UK as Low pressure moves East North of Britain through Week 2.

In Summary the pattern remains locked at the moment in a generally unsettled period with rain and showers at times for all areas. Temperatures never look to be far from average as one would expect with a basically Westerly bias to the winds over the period in association with Low pressure mostly close to Northern Britain throughout. It's GEM's turn today for it's operational to show something rather different with High pressure settling things down next week with fine days and night frost and fog but it is looking very isolated in the overall scheme of things this morning. For those looking for snowfall you will continue to have to travel to the hills and mountains of the North at times with even here only limited amounts in the polar maritime air masses that pass through at times.

As others have eluded..there is good consistency this morning at T+96 across the model output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

A very wet picture for many,especially so near southern and western coasts. Cooler at times in the north with the risk of wintry precipitation over higher ground. Fortunately the winds do not appear as strong as recent weeks.

bitter cold gets right down to the deep south of the USA

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011406/gfsnh-1-90.png?6

I think it's looking increasingly likely now that if anything is going to alter the course of the pattern this winter, it will be the SSW which I believe is/has been taking place recently. Since Christmas there have been hints from time to time of possible changes, but no more than hints and they have never been either well supported or modelled with any real consistency.

It is possible that this winter may ultimately turn out to be something like 2004/05, which saw a lot of extremely unsettled, sometimes stormy, weather during December and January, but finished with a much quieter February which included a cold spell in the second half of that month.

consistent out to this point. should be quite cold under the slack trough and PM air

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011406/gfsnh-0-120.png?6

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

No mans land. Not a bad place to be even though we know the western army will begin the charge soon

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png

Indeed, might get a -5 out of this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

Followed by a cold day

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Interesting. a little shortwave slides across. is it cold enough?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1684.png

Shows the position of the HP quite well

the battle is lost for now, but there is still room for improvement

6Z is an upgrade on the 0Z. It seems to me that the situation we have is extremely unstable and that it takes very little to push it one way or the other. I wouldn't be suprised to see the easterly come back for a 3rd time at some point. 

Thankfully after Wednesday nights rain - it does look like a drier outlook (despite being under Low Pressure)

small bands of showers rather than large systems of rain look to be the order of the day, which should allow for rivers to empy a bit more.  It will be cool though - enough for some snow on the hills in the north.

The long term signal for a block somewhere to our NE remains this morning.

While it's looking like a case of 'close but no cigar' in the next 10 days, ECM shows LP on the slide again on day 10 and with an amplifying pattern upstream that could generate a ridge over the top of our slider, then enticing the Russia/Scandi block westward.

GFS 00z is flatter and more progressive for a time in FI (surprised?  ...nope) but does actually go on to produce a very similar scenario to ECM, and generates a very promising NH setup from there for days 14-16.

GFS 06z wasn't far away in the end - just had too much PV energy drifting from Siberia into the high Arctic.

At the risk of restarting what nearly became a stuck record last winter;

Patience, grasshopper....

cold weather seekers are an optimistic bunch even in the face of certain defeat!!

Well the ECM used LP over Europe to inflate a scandi high and kept the high in the atlantic a mid-atlantic feature. What we do consistantly see on all the models is an extremely southerly jet at about 84h. This seems to be what is causing the models confusion. The jet itself goes right into north africa and it sends upper level lows south with it. The amount of energy that goes south seems to be key, and seems finely balanced in favour of not quite enough to inflate the scandanavian high. But as yesterday's ECM shows, it really doesn't take much more stuff going south to change that. Until this period is resolved and the jet flattens later on in the run it cannot be completely ruled out that another Easterly will show again today.  

Sorry, but the GFS 00z and 06z runs show a stalled or slow moving frontal system across the UK this weekend, so that analysis isn't entirely true for some places.

Also, the models tend to vastly underestimate the penetration of showers inland from the coast.

My local river back home has only fallen 3cm in the past 4 days, and that's with not all that much rain falling, so I anticipate steady levels or even a renewed rise from Wednesday through to the end of the weekend.

However, factoring this in still produces a drier week than the first 7 days of January, for example, so your overall point there stands 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/3h.htm

For what it's worth, I reckon a more accurate projection should increase inland totals by 5-10mm and coastal totals by 3-5mm. That's just based on recent experience, but bear in mind the values are averages over wide areas, and local totals will vary considerably around that due to the nature of showers.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=4&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=8&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=11&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=19&mode=0&carte=0

The pendulum swings a bit liitle more.GFS op tantaizingly close  at 144h but no supprt from ensemble swhich are 80% zonal.

The ens that bucked the trend are above.

I agree there will be some fronts around, but the LP looks like a decaying feature, with only slight temperature gradients, slack winds.  Experience has told me the models seem to over egg any precip if not within the High Res time boundary (basically less than 48 hrs away)

I expect any precip currently being forecast to dip slightly as we go into the weekend.  Its possible some areas might see a dry weekend, albeit Frosty. With the winds being light and all....

a few more come very close at 144. About 10 of the perturbations look ok. Of course most get blasted away, but beyond day 6 is still at eternity away in these setups

Fergusson saying now only 10% chance of the easterly, in line with the ECM ens. Perhaps I'll throw in the towel with tonights 12zs

Has this ever happened? There are quite a few examples of dropped easterlies. But have they ever been picked up at the last minute? 

Until the 12Z comes out, and offers a '300' style battle here is something to keep you interested.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011406/gfsnh-10-384.png?6