Thankfully after Wednesday nights rain - it does look like a drier outlook (despite being under Low Pressure)
small bands of showers rather than large systems of rain look to be the order of the day, which should allow for rivers to empy a bit more. It will be cool though - enough for some snow on the hills in the north.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
Sorry, but the GFS 00z and 06z runs show a stalled or slow moving frontal system across the UK this weekend, so that analysis isn't entirely true for some places.
Also, the models tend to vastly underestimate the penetration of showers inland from the coast.
My local river back home has only fallen 3cm in the past 4 days, and that's with not all that much rain falling, so I anticipate steady levels or even a renewed rise from Wednesday through to the end of the weekend.
However, factoring this in still produces a drier week than the first 7 days of January, for example, so your overall point there stands
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/3h.htm
For what it's worth, I reckon a more accurate projection should increase inland totals by 5-10mm and coastal totals by 3-5mm. That's just based on recent experience, but bear in mind the values are averages over wide areas, and local totals will vary considerably around that due to the nature of showers.
Originally Posted by: Russwirral