Something new is starting to appear on the models. And I urge people not to take SLP so literally and to use NH views!
Although its pretty well established now that the drop in the jet stream to africa is only going to result in a stalemate for the UK, what happens after in the medium term is very interesting. In particular the section of the Polar vortex to the west of greenland. At the 500mb level there have been height rises in that area of 20dm, and corresponding surface lows have been also weaker, more eliptical, and following a more southerly trajectory.
Meanwhile in the arctic, once again the bering is starting to come into play. There is going to be a huge amount of WAA there in the medium term, which is going to cause a monster arctic high to develop (perhaps 1045mb<). Also note there is some amplification of the midatlantic high too, which is always welcome.
The stubborness of the scandanavian ridge combined with a weaker atlantic and a well positioned arctic high seems to inevitably point to a slow transition towards good northern blocking. The most recent GFS run (12z) has an influx of very cold uppers from the arctic starting to get mixed into the circulation of the scandi high; overall the mid-long term prognosis looks very promising and in the later case we have to take into account of sustained minor stratospheric warming and the possibility of a major event well into FI.
The GEM offers a taste of what may be to come if the models like the GFS and UKMO have got the pattern right. Though note, I think the GEM solution itself is far to progressive with the blocking.
The spanner in the works is the ECMWF, the 0Z was awful this morning. If it wasn't for the ECMWF I would be feeling extremely optimistic, as it is I am going to be a little bit more reserved if possible.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.