theweatheroutlook

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Sevendust
17 January 2014 12:02:21


The key words there are GFS FI - The health warning attached to that is huge!


Fww, I never worry too much beyond a few days as so much can happen

Rob K
17 January 2014 12:11:26
Matt Hugo on Twitter saying that there is "growing confidence" that the MJO will move into phase 6/7 in the newxt week or two. "It is acknowledged scientifically that a -ve NAO tends to be preceded by phases 6 and 7".
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
johnm1976
17 January 2014 12:38:56


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=10&carte=1  Let's see what the ensembles look like.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


The key words there are GFS FI - The health warning attached to that is huge!


Fww, I never worry too much beyond a few days as so much can happen



Yep, that's why I included a link to modelled strat warming at 10hPa - t+FI is more accurate higher up

Quantum
17 January 2014 12:51:00



If an easterly is not going to happen, then please GFS, ECM just have the atlantic win not half heartedly. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


You say that like the only options are an easterly or roaring westerlies. Whereas with arctic HP around we could end up with cold northerlies instead without the Atlantic "winning".


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I know that, and I have been very vocal about a scandanavian easterly being the smallest prize. Nonetheless the pattern showing yesterday was more favourible overall for any kind of nothern blocking minus the decent 300 charts being shown today. Still, its switched so much in recent days; itl probably switch back again by the 12z. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
roger63
17 January 2014 13:27:37

Quick analysis of GEFS 06h.


-window opens slghtly 120-132 h for a brief easterly incursion(50% 0f ENS)


- Out to  144h ENS show slight shift westward but still huge majority zonal


- at 240h 50% of ENS have HP rise to north.


-

Girthmeister
17 January 2014 14:10:47


I can finally say


 


Fi looks very wintry


 


weve missed these smileys havent we...


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Sure have. Before you know it, Gary Sarre will return, and everything will be set for decent cold spell. "Loads of snow very confident "

Maunder Minimum
17 January 2014 14:13:03

Snowing heavily in Copenhagen this afternoon and it was not forecast - hope my flight home is not cancelled or delayed this evening.


Anyway, shows that we are in a period of uncertainty, if unforecast weather can materialise at short notice.


Shannon entropy anyone?

New world order coming.
roger63
17 January 2014 14:55:28


Quick analysis of GEFS 06h.


-window opens slghtly 120-132 h for a brief easterly incursion(50% 0f ENS)


- Out to  144h ENS show slight shift westward but still huge majority zonal


- at 240h 50% of ENS have HP rise to north.


-


Originally Posted by: roger63 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html


The colder weather in Far NE mentioned by METO for  next Wednesday and Thursday lines up with a possible brief eastery incursion from GEFS ENS 120-144.

Gavin P
17 January 2014 15:27:30

Hi all,


Here's today's video updaye:


JMA Friday (17-1-14)


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Looking at the longer range JMA update's from February to April Also has a quick look at the wintry GFS FI.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:04:52

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011712/gfsnh-0-108.png?12


slightly better trough disruption but we were supposed to be in the easterly already by now!


the thing to look for now are the height rises way up north which may give another good FI


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:18:40

easterly almost makes it back on UKMO


GFS more of the same


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011712/UW120-21.GIF?17-17

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
17 January 2014 16:24:55


easterly almost makes it back on UKMO


GFS more of the same


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011712/UW120-21.GIF?17-17


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Not a bad chart from UKMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:25:20

hope GFS has got this completely wrong. UKMO much more amplified

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:27:40

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011712/gfsnh-1-174.png?12


Time to dust off the BBQ


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:29:45

Easterly sneaks in through the back door. Couldnt be more different to GFS!


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011712/UW144-21.GIF?17-17

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arbroath 1320
17 January 2014 16:32:11


easterly almost makes it back on UKMO


GFS more of the same


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011712/UW120-21.GIF?17-17


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Jeez, that Azores High really is a pain in jacksy. Never close enough to stop the Atlantic systems dumping their wind and rain over us but always able to poke it's nose in when there's the potential for an Easterly/continental feed




GGTTH
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:35:45

GFS is mental again in FI. Must be the effects of the SSW. Some very warm getting pumped beyond Alaska towards the pole


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011712/gfsnh-0-228.png?12

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
17 January 2014 16:36:17

GFS, short term pain but could be long term gain, as per the 06Z.... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png


 


If GFS has got it wrong, it is at least consistently wrong... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:37:19

UK under colder uppers than the north pole! LOL


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011712/gfsnh-1-240.png?12

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
JACKO4EVER
17 January 2014 16:38:25

Hi all,
Here's today's video updaye:
JMA Friday (17-1-14)
http://www.gavsweathervids.com 
Looking at the longer range JMA update's from February to April Also has a quick look at the wintry GFS FI.UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thanks Gav, excellent as ever. The potential then for plenty more wind and rain in both the end of January and into February. I wonder if this will become one of the wettest winters on record?
Rob K
17 January 2014 16:38:49
Vortex well and truly split there

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011712/gfsnh-0-264.png?12 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
17 January 2014 16:40:54

That height rise from the pacific has really worked its magic in FI. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:41:24

Canada and some of the US disappear into a black hole of nothingness! China looks a bit chilly as well!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011712/gfsnh-1-252.png?12

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
17 January 2014 16:45:16

Hi all, Here's today's video updaye: JMA Friday (17-1-14) http://www.gavsweathervids.com  Looking at the longer range JMA update's from February to April Also has a quick look at the wintry GFS FI.UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Thanks Gav, excellent as ever. The potential then for plenty more wind and rain in both the end of January and into February. I wonder if this will become one of the wettest winters on record?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Great- that's all we need now.


Hopefully the SSW will eventually knock the stuffing out of that damned jet- many places could sure do with a break from all this rain right now.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
17 January 2014 16:50:51

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011712/gfsnh-1-384.png?12


I wish I had paid a visit to my cousin in Iowa this winter. What an amazing spell of extreme cold the US is enjoying.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
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